Climate Outlook for Southern Africa rainy season
The bulk of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall in the forthcoming October-March rainy season, according to the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum. Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season has been subdivided into four overlapping three-month periods.
Most of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the period October to December 2013. However, south-westernmost Angola, coastal areas of Namibia, west coastal South Africa and northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall, according to the Outlook.
In the November-December 2013-January 2014 period, bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while the greater part of DRC, northernmost and south-western Angola and western fringes of Namibia and South Africa are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
Bulk of both contiguous SADC and the islands states of Madagascar and Mauritius are likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall during December 2013 to February 2014. However, south-western Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho are likely to receive above-normal to normal rainfall while the eastern half of Tanzania is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
For the period January to March 2014, the bulk of SADC is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, the tongue stretching from eastern coast of northern Mozambique through central parts of the region extending to the south western central parts of the region are likely to receive above-normal to normal rainfall.
The Seventeenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum was held in Harare, Zimbabwe from 28 to 30 August 2013 to present a consensus outlook for the 2013/2014 rainfall season over the SADC region.
WMO is promoting the collaborative development of seasonal climate outlooks in many regions of the world as part of its contributions to the Global Framework for Climate Services with an overarching objective to increase the availability of user-friendly climate information for decision makers and local communities.