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JWGFVR


Forecast Verification Research

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  • To plan and implement the verification component of WWRP;
  • To serve as a focal point for the development and dissemination of new verification methods for WWRP and EPAC, as required;
  • To facilitate and encourage training and dissemination of information on verification methodologies;
  • To take into account the needs of users so as to ensure the relevance of the practice of forecast verification;
  • To facilitate the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models;
  • To encourage the sharing of observational data for verification purposes;
  • To encourage greater awareness in the research community of the importance of verification as a vital part of numerical and field experiments rather than an "afterthought";
  • To promote collaboration among scientists conducting research on various aspects of forecast verification as well as with model developers and forecast providers; and
  • To collaborate on forecast verification with the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and WCRP and in coordination with CBS.

NEWS


 

  • Forecast Verification Method Intercomparison Project (ICP): Several members of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research have participated in the ICP, which is an effort to provide useful information on new verification approaches that have been developed in the last few years.  The initial focus has been on spatial verification aproaches including object based methods, scale separation approaches, neighborhood methods and field morphing approaches.  The methods were all applied to the same datasets, including some artificial cases that allow easy interpretation, as well as some high resolution model forecasts from the central US.  The results of these studies are now available for early release as a  special collection in the journal Weather and Forecasting.  At a recent informal workshop for this project plans were developed to extend the project to new datasets and variables.  This project is a significant step toward development of a verification method testbed, which would be supported by this Joint Working Group.

 

  • The World Weather Research Programme is pleased to announce the publication of "Recommendations for the Verification and Intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from Operational NWP Models - Revision 2 October 2008 (WMO/TD-No.1485 WWRP 2009-1). A project of the WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research, the document aims to recommend a standard methodology for verification and intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from NWP models. These recommendations apply to the verification of direct model output precipitation forecasts as well as forecasts which have been subjected to post-processing. The document is divided into 6 sections. Section 1 provides some background information while Section 2 presents the verification strategy. Section 3 discusses the reference data while verification methods and scores can be found in Section 4. The guidelines for reporting verification results are given in Section 5. The recommendations given in the document are summarized in Section 6. Additional details on the verification methods and scores considered in the document can be found in the appendices.

 

Projects and Activities
Working Group Members

  • Special Issue of Meteorological Applications on Forecast Verification

  • Verification guidance and support for WWRP forecast and research demonstration projects (e.g. MAP D-PHASE, Beijing Olympics)

  • Documentation of recommended methods for specific applications (e.g. precipitation)

  • Workshops on new verification methods;

  • Education and outreach, including web tools and tutorials on verification methods;

  • Development of a Real Time Forecast Verification (RTFV) system;

  • User-focused verification approaches and

  • Methods intercomparisons
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Upcoming Meetings


Past Meetings

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fifth International Verification Methods Workshop (Melbourne, 1-7 December 2011) new_flashing Minutes of JWGFVR post-workshop meeting

Annual Meeting of the JWGFVR (Berlin, 8 to 10 September 2011) new_flashing Minutes & Presentations

Special session on Forecast Verification AM5 " Verification and quality of probabilistic forecast guidance" at the ECAM/EMS Conference (Berlin, 12-16 September 2011)

Hands on weather forecast verification training by WWRP JWGFVR member Pertti Nurmi (FMI) under the bilateral Finnish-Peruvian project for increased capacity building of Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia del Peru (SENAMHI) Lima, Peru (22 November to 2 December 2010)

Joint Meeting of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research and Working Group on SERA (Toulouse, France, 27-29 September 2010) Agenda, Presentations with Action Sheet and Meeting Report

Summer Colloquim on Forecast Verification (NCAR Boulder CO USA, 6-28 Jun 2010)

Publications

Recommended Methods for Evaluating Clouds and Related Parameters
(WWRP 2012-1)

Proceedings of the Fourth International Verification Methods Workshop (Helsinki, Finland, 8-10 June 2009) (WMO/TD-No.1540 WWRP 2010-1)

Recommendations for the Verification and Intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from Operational NWP Models - Revision 2 October 2008 (WMO/TD-No.1485 WWRP 2009-1)

Scientific publications of interest

Special Issue of Meteorological Applications
on Forecast Verification (Volume 15,Issue 1)

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WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR)

 




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