To monitor the implementation of existing priority projects within the Working Group and to further develop other appropriate research projects as the need arises, under the main programme components: tropical cyclones and monsoons;
To identify and support the research initiatives of NMHSs in tropical countries generally including collaboration with groups in universities or research institutes, which are likely to lead to societal and economic benefits; and
To keep developments in research aspects of the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) under continuous review and facilitate the coordination of research at regional levels by maintaining close liaison with tropical cyclone regional bodies.
We are glad to announce that the 3rd Edition of the book The Global Monsoon System has just been published (25 Jan 2017). The book is third in the series on the state of the science of monsoon research and forecasting which is updated approximately every 5 years based on the invited reviews of WMO's International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM). The third edition is an outgrowth of the reviews initially presented in late 2013 at IWM-V, with manuscripts revised and updated through 2015 and early 2016. As in previous editions, the book builds on the concept that the monsoon in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while also emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. In addition to the regional monsoons, the current volume covers contemporary topics with emphasis on intraseasonal oscillations, extreme weather, decadal variability, climate change, and summary of recent field experiments including CINDY/DYNAMO in the Indian Ocean and the Asian Monsoon Years. The readership of this book series includes graduate students, academics and researchers in meteorology/climatology, and weather forecasting services. This book is edited by members of WWRP WGTMR's Monsoon Panel led by its Chair, Professor CP Chang and members of the Panel who are world-renowned monsoon experts which includes Drs Hung-Chi Kuo, Ngar-Cheung Lau, Richard H. Johnson, Bin Wang and Matthew C Wheeler. The book is published by the World Scientific on its series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate. WGTMR publications (both monsoon and tropical cyclone book series) have been adopted by many tropical region NMHS for education, research, and as operational forecast guides. The WGTMR's Tropical Cyclone Panel's book "Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation" published in 2010 is, according to the publishers (World Scientific), now on its 2nd printing
.... and on Tropical Cyclones
Dr Doo-Sun R. Park of Seoul National University had just posted a message in the Tropical-storms forum that a new paper "Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections” is now available at:
Dr Park's, lead author of the paper provides this summary:Based on our statistical method, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, but will increase over the western North Pacific in future climate conditions. An ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic.
Professor Johnny Chan, chair of the WGTMR's Tropical Cyclone Panel, is one of the authors of the above-mentioned paper.
We are pleased to announce that Drs Esperanza CAYANAN (Philippines), Maria SILVA DIAZ (Brazil) and Moustapha SALL (Senegal) will soon be joining the WGTMR subject to official confirmation by their respective institutions. The Tropical Meteorology Research group warmly welcomes them to the community.
ON OTHER NEWS:
The Malaysian Meteorological Department's KL Monsoon Activity Centre has recently issued the Northeast Monsoon Report of November 2016. The report is also available online at the MMD website:
Dr Kunio YONEYAMA (Japan), co-chair of YMC SSC, receives the Japan Meteorological Society's 2016 Horiuchi Award
Special Session on Years of Maritime Continent (YMC) at next years' Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS-14 Singapore, 6-11 August 2017)
AS14: Theory, Observations and Modelling of Maritime Continent Convcetion
for more information about the YMC session please visit:
Deadline for submission of abstracts: 15 February 2017
The Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2015 has been published in April 2016 by RSMC-TC, New Delhi (RSMC Director Dr M Mohapatra is a member of TMR's Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones). The report is now available for download at:
WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2017:
6th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-6)
(Singapore, 13-17 Nov 2017)
4th International Workshop on Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-4)
in conjunction with TLFDP/UPDRAFT/EXOTICCA Workshop
(venue to be announced soon, Nov 2017)
FIRST ABOVE-NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SINCE 2012
PRODUCED 5 LANDFALLING US STORMS (2016) - NOAA
(Dr Gerry Bell is a member of WGTMR's Expert Team on Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts)
Are you interested in real-time global tropical cyclone statistics?
Dr Phil Klotzbach, Chairperson of WGTMR's Expert Team on Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts has created a global real-time monitoring website which not only provides real-time global tropical cyclone statistics but also features extensive basinwide archives of tropical cyclone statistics for each global TC basin.
click here to visit the website
Want to read the latest on:
click on the title above to download the file and read at your leisure
(Chapter 14 of the book: SEAMLESS PREDICTION OF THE EARTH SYSTEM: FROM MINUTES TO MONTHS) Authors: Chris Davis and Johnny Chan)
Professor Johnny Chan is the Chairperson of WGTMR's Tropical Cyclone Panel.
Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Website goes LIVE!
The Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Colorado State University (CSU) and XL Catlin have launched a new website to track seasonal hurricane forecasts and the evolution of hurricane activity. Seasonal Hurricane Predictions brings together forecasts from major centers that specialize in hurricanes, with information dating back to 1996. It also offers extensive information to promote understanding of the factors that contribute to these meteorological phenomena, which can have devastating consequences, and to help explain why different models produce different predictions.
The website is an initiative of WGTMR's Expert Team on Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and was spearheaded by Louis-Philippe Caron with the support of Phil Klotzbach. BSC is hosting the website.
please click here for more information
The WMO-TLFDP webpage has just been updated. It can also be accessed through the WWRP Tropical Cyclone Website. The Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) (2010-2018) is a collaborative effort with the THORPEX North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project. Endorsed by WWRP, TCP and PWS, the TLFDP was envisioned to complement the 2010 Shanghai MHEWS project to collect, integrate and display real-time or near real-time forecast results for both landfalling and non-landfalling typhoons, including their track, intensity, wind and rain distribution. The FDP also developed and integrated techniques to evaluate and assess the accuracy of forecast of time and location of landfall, gale distribution, and torrential rain, calculate forecast errors of various systems and make a comprehensive analysis of forecast performance, evaluate the reliability of the forecasts and finally assess the social and economic impacts of an improved tropical cyclone forecast service. The website is hosted by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai Meteorological Service of the China Meteorological Administration. For more detailed information about the project please visit the TLFDP website hosted by STI/CMA at: TLFDP
The WMO-SCMREX webpage has just been updated. The SCMREX RDP (2013-2018) aims to improve our understanding of the structures and evolution of the South China heavy-rain-producing storms during the monsoon outbreak period and improve prediction of these high-impact rainfall events through field campaigns, data processing and sharing, numerical modeling and analysis. The website is hosted by the China Meteorological Administration. For more detailed information about the project please visit the SCMREX website hosted by CAMS/CMA at: SCMREX
The WMO-UPDRAFT webpage is now live.
WGTMR's Monsoon Panel and YMC (2017-2019)
The Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) is a multi-national field campaign from July 2017 to July 2019 aimed at improving understanding and prediction of MC weather-climate systems and their global impact. An overview of YMC was presented by Dr. Kunio Yoneyama of JAMSTEC at the October 2015 WGTMR panel meeting in Nanjing, which was followed by the panel’s endorsement of YMC.
The first component of YMC will be an MJO-diurnal cycle study west of Sumatra by Japan and Indonesia in Nov-Dec 2017. In 2018 there will be three coordinated projects in the SCS – NTU’s SCS Two Island Monsoon Experiment, US ONR’s PISTON (Aug-Sep) involving NOAA’s R/V Tommy Thompson to investigate the diurnal cycle in the SCS and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), and US NASA’s CAMPEx to study aerosol impacts on precipitating systems in the Philippine-SCS region. ECMWF has agreed to provide a high-resolution reanalysis for 2017-2019 in support of YMC and YOPP (Year of Polar Prediction). At present, 70 institutes and universities from 19 countries are involved in YMC.
A third YMC Workshop will be held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 14-16 March 2017. click here to go to the JAMSTEC YMC page
Dr Matthew Wheeler (BOM) of the Monsoon Panel's Executive Committee will represent the Panel at the 3rd YMC Workshop.
World Monsoons Website
The Monsoon Panel of WWRP’s Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research is pleased to announce that Yale University’s World Monsoons Website is now online at: http://monsoon.yale.edu/ The website created by Dr William Boos* at Yale University (with financial support from the US National Science Foundation CAREER award AGS-1253222) provides observations of current weather in the world’s various monsoon regions, together with rainfall totals for the current seasons. The website also provides forecasts of monsoon activity over the next few days. Targeted for the layperson, there is also a blog, which every week or two features a current general-interest story; recent articles have focused on flooding in Jakarta, drought in Brazil, etc.
Data presented on the website comes from various sources: Current winds are obtained from the latest daily operational analysis of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); Current precipitation is obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product; Deterministic forecasts are obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS), a numerical weather prediction model produced by NCEP and Probabilistic forecasts are obtained from the GFS Ensemble; the bias-corrected precipitation is used. Technical support and hosting are provided by Yale’s Instructional Technology Group.
*Dr William Boos is a member of the Monsoon Panel's Expert Team on Severe Monsoon Weather
Verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts
(document prepared by JWGFVR)
The Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III) was held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from 2-10 December 2014. The closing ceremony on 10 December 2014, the last day of the combined workshops was preceded by a recapitulation of the recommendations of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III.
Dr William K.-M. Lau, Deputy Director of NASA’s Earth Science Division and member of WWRP’s Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Monsoons is the lead author of a NASA-led modeling study which provides new evidence that global warming may increase the risk of extreme rainfall and drought. The analysis provides a new assessment of global warming's impacts on precipitation patterns around the world. The study was accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.
(click here for more information)
The Second Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 10 to 12 December 2012. Organized by WWRP's Monsoon Panel led by Prof C.P. Chang, participants at the workshop presented and discussed recent research results on the observation, modelling and prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region. NMHS forecasters in the monsoon region participated in the 3-day event essentially to benefit from the training aspect of the workshop. Also held during the workshop was a planning meeting for the international field and modelling project, Southern China Monsoon Experiment (SCMREX).
The International Workshop on Rapid Change of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Movement was held in Haikou, Hainan, China from 5-9 November 2012. Organized by the current Chair of WGTMR, Dr Yihong Duan and the former Chair of WWRP's WGTMR, Prof Chen Lianshou, the workshop was attended by tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters.The workshop highlighted recent advances in the theory and practice of forecasting rapid changes in tropical cyclone intensity and track.
click here for the Workshop's Powerpoint Presentations
Featured JOURNAL: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
An Invitation to Contribute an Article from the Editor of TCRR
Featured ARTICLE: Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones (Russ Elsberry)