To monitor the implementation of existing priority projects within the Working Group and to further develop other appropriate research projects as the need arises, under the main programme components: tropical cyclones and monsoons;
To identify and support the research initiatives of NMHSs in tropical countries generally including collaboration with groups in universities or research institutes, which are likely to lead to societal and economic benefits; and
To keep developments in research aspects of the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) under continuous review and facilitate the coordination of research at regional levels by maintaining close liaison with tropical cyclone regional bodies.
NEW Website: World Monsoons
The Monsoon Panel of WWRP’s Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research is pleased to announce that Yale University’s World Monsoons Website is now online at: http://monsoon.yale.edu/ The website created by Dr William Boos* at Yale University (with financial support from the US National Science Foundation CAREER award AGS-1253222) provides observations of current weather in the world’s various monsoon regions, together with rainfall totals for the current seasons. The website also provides forecasts of monsoon activity over the next few days. Targeted for the layperson, there is also a blog, which every week or two features a current general-interest story; recent articles have focused on flooding in Jakarta, drought in Brazil, etc.
Data presented on the website comes from various sources: Current winds are obtained from the latest daily operational analysis of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); Current precipitation is obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product; Deterministic forecasts are obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS), a numerical weather prediction model produced by NCEP and Probabilistic forecasts are obtained from the GFS Ensemble; the bias-corrected precipitation is used. Technical support and hosting are provided by Yale’s Instructional Technology Group.
*Dr William Boos is a member of the Monsoon Panel's Expert Team on Severe Monsoon Weather
PUBLICATION: Verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts (document prepared by JWGFVR)
The Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III)was held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from 2-10 December 2014. The closing ceremony on 10 December 2014, the last day of the combined workshops was preceded by a recapitulation of the recommendations of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III. Documents and Presentations related to the two workshops are now available online at:
For UPDATES follow us on twitter @IWTC-8
Dr William K.-M. Lau, Deputy Director of NASA’s Earth Science Division and member of WWRP’s Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Monsoons is the lead author of a NASA-led modeling study which provides new evidence that global warming may increase the risk of extreme rainfall and drought. The analysis provides a new assessment of global warming's impacts on precipitation patterns around the world. The study was accepted for publication in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.
(Link to news article)
The WMO-TLFDP website is now online and can also be accessed through the WWRP Tropical Cyclone Website. The Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) is a collaborative effort with the THORPEX North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project. Endorsed by WWRP, TCP and PWS the TLFDP
was envisioned to complement the Shanghai MHEWS project and will collect, integrate and display real-time or near real-time forecast results for both landfalling and non-landfalling typhoons, including their track, intensity, wind and rain distribution. The FDP will also develop and integrate techniques to evaluate and assess the accuracy of forecast of time and location of landfall, gale distribution, and torrential rain, calculate forecast errors of various systems and make a comprehensive analysis of forecast performance, evaluate the reliability of the forecasts and finally assess the social and economic impacts of an improved tropical cyclone forecast service. The website is hosted by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA's Shanghai Meteorological Bureau. Initially scheduled to end in 2012, TLFDP had been extended to end of 2015.
The Second Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 10 to 12 December 2012. Organized by WWRP's Monsoon Panel led by Prof C.P. Chang, participants at the workshop presented and discussed recent research results on the observation, modelling and prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region. NMHS forecasters in the monsoon region participated in the 3-day event essentially to benefit from the training aspect of the workshop. Also held during the workshop was a planning meeting for the international field and modelling project, Southern China Monsoon Experiment (SCMREX).
The International Workshop on Rapid Change of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Movement was held in Haikou, Hainan, China from 5-9 November 2012. Organized by the current Chair of WGTMR, Dr Yihong Duan and the former Chair of WWRP's WGTMR, Prof Chen Lianshou, the workshop was attended by tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters.The workshop highlighted recent advances in the theory and practice of forecasting rapid changes in tropical cyclone intensity and track.Powerpoint Presentations
ARTICLE: Advances in Understanding and Forecasting Rapidly Changing Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones(R. Elsberry)