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The World Weather Open Science Conference

Presentations

(18 August 2014)

 

WW-JPL03
08:30 - 10:00 WWOSC Joint Plenary Room
Chairs: Rebecca Morss and Heini Wernli

08:30 WW-JPL03.01 - How social sciences are and are not being woven into meteorological science
Eve Gruntfest1, 1Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, Colorado Springs, USA

09:15 WW-JPL03.02 - Advances in global numerical weather prediction and future prospects
Alan Thorpe1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

SCI-PS122 - 10:30 - 12:00
ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle
Chair: Paul Dirmeyer

10:30 SCI-PS122.01 - Impact of weather and climate variability on terrestrial fluxes: integration of EO data into models
Jean-Christophe Calvet1, Gianpaolo Balsamo2, Alina Barbu1, Alessandro Cescatti3, Sébastien Lafont1, Fabienne Maignan4, Dario Papale5, Camille Szczypta1, Balazs Szintai6, Bart van den Hurk7, 1CNRM-GAME (Meteo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK, 3IES (DG-JRC), Ispra, Italy, 4LSCE (CEA, CNRS), Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 5Tuscia University, Viterbo, Italy, 6OMSZ (Hungarian Meteorological Service), Budapest, Hungary, 7KNMI (Dutch Meteorological Service), De Built, The Netherlands

11:00 SCI-PS122.02 - The effect of Interannul climate variability on the methane emissions of tropical wetlands
Changhui Peng1, Qiuan Zhu2, 1Centre ESCER/CEF, University of Quebec at Montreal, Canada, 2Northwest A&F University, Shaanxi, China

11:20 SCI-PS122.03 - Near-neutral atmospheric conditions over boreal wetlands improve the estimation of daily evapotranspiration in remote areas
Pierre-Erik Isabelle1, Daniel F. Nadeau2, Alain N. Rousseau1, Carole Coursolle3, Hank A. Margolis3, 1INRS - Eau, Terre et Environnement, Quebec City, Canada, 2Polytechnique Montreal, Montreal, Canada, 3Universite Laval, Quebec City, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS122.04 - Modifications of the atmospheric moisture field as a result of cold-pool dynamics
Linda Schlemmer1, Cathy Hohenegger1, 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

SCI-PS123 - 10:30 - 12:00
ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction
Chair: Sophie Valcke

10:30 SCI-PS123.01 - From climate to weather: air-sea coupling scales
Baylor Fox-Kemper1, 1Brown University, Providence, USA

11:00 SCI-PS123.02 - The impact of well resolved air-sea coupling on global weather extremes.
Linda Hirons1, Nicholas Klingaman1, Steve Woolnough1, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK

11:20 SCI-PS123.03 - Global Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Model for Seasonal and Climate Forecast Applications at NOAA/ESRL
Shan Sun1, Georg Grell1, Rainer Bleck2,1, Stan Benjamin1, 1NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, USA, 2NASA/GISS, Boulder, USA

11:40 SCI-PS123.04 - Why a warmer ocean might mean less rain
Timothy Hewson1, Benedetta Dini2, Ian Boutle2, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2Met Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS124 - 10:30 - 12:00
Cross-cutting research on verification techniques
Chair: Munehiko Yamaguchi

10:30 SCI-PS124.01 - Demonstrating a strategy for verifying km-scale NWP forecasts at observing sites
Marion Mittermaier1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:00 SCI-PS124.02 - Forecast verification framework and some early results of the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics
Pertti Nurmi1, Matias Brockmann1, Sigbritt Näsman1, 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

11:20 SCI-PS124.03 - A wavelet-based verification approach to account for the variation in sparseness of gauge observation networks
Barbara Casati1, Vincent Fortin1, Laurence Wilson1, Laurence Wilson1, 1Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS124.04 - Points and pixels, gage and sky: Choosing the right observations to verify forecasts
Edward Tollerud1, Tara Jensen2, Kirk Holub3, John Halley Gotway2, 1CIRA and ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, USA, 2DTC and NCAR, Boulder, USA, 3ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS125 - 10:30 - 12:00
Environmental Prediction Systems: Global and medium- range aspects
Chair: Erland Kallen

10:30 SCI-PS125.01 - Environment Canada's approach to global numerical weather and environmental prediction: a 10-year plan
Martin Charron1, 1Recherche en prévision numérique atmosphérique, Dorval, Canada

11:00 SCI-PS125.02 - Performance of forecasts for severe weather
Linus Magnusson1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:20 SCI-PS125.03 - Sensitivity of NCEP GFS forecast of Hurricane Sandy to model configuration and supplemental radiosondes
Fanglin Yang1, 1NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, USA


11:40 SCI-PS125.04 - Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts: a review
Thomas Hamill1, 1NOAA ESRL, Boulder, Colorado

SCI-PS126 - 10:30 - 12:00
Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson

10:30 SCI-PS126.01 - Accounting for correlated AMSU-A observation errors in an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Pieter Houtekamer1, Mikhail Tsyrulnikov2, Herschel Mitchell1, 1Meteorological Research Branch, Montreal, Canada, 2HydroMeteorological Center of Russia, Moscow, Russia

11:00 SCI-PS126.02 - Application of the WRF – LETKF System over Southern South America: Sensitivity to model physics.
Maria Eugenia Dillon1,2, Yanina Garcia Skabar1,2, Juan Ruiz3,4, Eugenia Kalnay5, Estela Collini2,6, Pablo Echevarria2, Marcos Saucedo3,4,7, Takemasa Miyoshi8, 1Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones científicas y técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Departamento de Investigación y Desarrollo, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3UMI- Instituto Franco
Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 4Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEyN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 5Dept of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, U. S., 6Servicio de Hidrografía Naval, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 7Centro de Investigación del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina, 8RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Japan

11:20 SCI-PS126.03 - Environment Canada's regional ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis and Prediction System
Seung-Jong Baek1,2, Luc Fillion1, Peter Houtekamer1, Kao-Shen Chung1,2, Thomas Milewski1, Amin Erfani1, Normand Gagnon1, Ronald Frenette1, Martin Charron1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2McGill University, Montreal, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS126.04 - Comparison of GSI-based EnKF and 3DVar for multi-scale data assimilation and prediction of continental convection
Aaron Johnson1, Xuguang Wang1, 1School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA


SCI-PS127 - 10:30 - 12:00
New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales
Chair: Louis Garand

10:30 SCI-PS127.01 - A future ground-based network of thermodynamic boundary layer profilers: The infrared spectrometer option
David D. Turner1, W. Greg Blumberg2, 1National Severe Storms Laboratory / NOAA, Norman, USA, 2University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

11:00 SCI-PS127.02 - European ceilometer and Doppler lidar network for operational boundary layer monitoring
Anne Hirsikko1, Ewan J. O´Connor2,3, Martial Haffelin4, Jan H. Schween5, Volker Lehmann6, Anthony Illingworth3, 1Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany, 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 3University of Reading, Reading, UK, 4Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) – CNRS/E. Polytechnique, Paris, France, 5University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, 6Deutscher Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS127.03 - Operational ground-based remote sensing of wind: Experiences from the European wind profiler network CWINDE
Volker Lehmann1, Ronny Leinweber1, Eileen Päschke1, Stefan Klink2, Alexander Haefele3, Giovanni Martucci3, Myles Turp4, 1DWD, Meteorologisches Observatorium Lindenberg, Germany, 2EUMETNET c/o DWD Offenbach, Germany, 3MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland, 4UK MetOffice, Exeter, UK

11:40 SCI-PS127.04 - A system for monitoring in-situ soil moisture in Canada’s agricultural landscapes
Allan Howard1, Heather McNairn2, Jessika L'Heureux3, Catherine Champagne2, Jarrett Powers4, Aston Chipanshi1, Stephane Belair5, 1Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Regina, Canada, 2Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 3Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Calgary, Canada, 4Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Winnipeg, Canada, 5Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada


SCI-PS128 - 10:30 - 12:00
Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models
Chair: Annika Schomburg

10:30 SCI-PS128.01 - Convective-Scale Data Assimilation
Dale Barker1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:00 SCI-PS128.02 - ACCESS convective scale data assimilation
Peter Steinle1, Susan Rennie1, Xingbao Wang1, Yi Xiao1, Justin Peter1, Alan Seed1, Mark Curtis1, 1CAWCR, Melbourne, Australia


11:20 SCI-PS128.03 - Various strategies to increase temporal frequency in the AROME-France Convective-Scale Data-Assimilation System
Ludovic Auger1, Pierre Brousseau1, 1Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

11:40 SCI-PS128.04 - Super high-resolution mesoscale NWP with the K-computer
Kazuo Saito1,2, Hiromu Seko1,2, Masaru Kunii1, Takuya Kawabata1, Seiji Origuchi1, Tohru Kuroda2,1, Le Duc2,1, Kosuke Ito2,1, Tsutao Oizumi2,1, Guixing Chen3, 1Meteorological Research Insitute, Tsukuba, Japan, 2Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, 3Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS129 - 10:30 - 12:00
Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)
Chair: Veronique Bouchet


10:30 SCI-PS129.01 - Coupled meteorology-chemistry models: needs and benefits for numerical weather prediction, air quality and climate communities
Alexander Baklanov1, Heinke Schluenzen2, Sylvain Joffre3, Peter Suppan4, Jose Baldasano5, Dominik Brunner6, Michael Gauss7, Alberto Maurizi8, Christian Seigneur9, Xin Kong10, 1Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark / World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, 3Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland,
4Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch, Germany, 5Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, 6EMPA, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Switzerland, 7Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway, 8Institute of
Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy, 9CEREA, France, 10University of Hertfordshire, UK

11:00 SCI-PS129.02 - A study of feedbacks between weather and air-pollution using GEM-MACH
Paul Makar1, Wanmin Gong1, Sylvie Gravel Jason Mibrant2, Christian Hogrefe3, Yang Zhang4, Gabriele Curci5, Rahela Zabkar6, Stefano Galmarini, Ulas Im7, Roberto Bianconi8, Balbir Pabla, Junhua Zhang, Mike Moran, Amy Hou, Philip Cheung1, 1Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada, 3Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC, USA,
4Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA, 5University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy, 6University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy, 8Enviroware (www.enviroware.com), Milan, Italy

11:20 SCI-PS129.03 - Evaluation of meteorological models used in Phase II of AQMEII for North America
Brian Eder1, 1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, USA

11:40 SCI-PS129.04 - Influence of wild land fires on atmospheric dynamics and air quality: A process study with the modelling system COSMO-MUSCAT
Ralf Wolke1, Detlef Hinneburg1, Wolfram Schroeder1, 1Leibniz Institut for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Leipzig, Germany

SCI-PS130 - 10:30 - 12:00
Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions
Chair: Suzanne Gray

10:30 SCI-PS130.01 - The influence of tropical cyclones on the predictability of mid-latitude weather systems
Sarah Jones1,2, Doris Anwender2, Patrick Harr3, Simon Lang2,4, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 2Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 3Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA, 4ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS130.02 - Sensitivity of the downstream impact to the eddy kinetic energy budget of transitioning tropical cyclones
Julia H. Keller1, Sarah C. Jones1, 1German Meteorological Service, Offenbach, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS130.03 - Tropical cyclone – Rossby Wave Train interaction in idealized scenarios of extratropical transition
Michael Riemer1, Sarah C. Jones2, 1Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

11:40 SCI-PS130.04 - The Influence of extratropical transition on poleward Rossby Wave breaking
Lisa-Ann Quandt1, Julia Keller2, Sarah Jones2, Andrea Schneidereit3, Dieter Peters3, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Kühlungsborn, Germany

SCI-PS131 - 10:30 - 12:00
Tropical cyclones and tropical convection
Chair: Benjamin Green


10:30 SCI-PS131.01 - Tropical cyclone formation: findings from PREDICT
Christopher Davis1, David Ahijevych1, 1NCAR, Boulder, USA

11:00 SCI-PS131.02 - Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones: unbalanced dynamics within and just above the boundary layer
Chun-Chieh Wu1, Yi-Hsuan Huang1, Shin-Ping Kuan1, Yuan-Ming Cheng1, 1National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

11:20 SCI-PS131.03 - Asymmetric convective bursts and the problem of hurricane intensification.
Konstantinos Menelaou1, M.K. Yau1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada


11:40 SCI-PS131.04 - The structure and dynamics of coherent vortices in the eyewall boundary layer of tropical cyclones
Daniel Stern1, George Bryan1, 1NCAR, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS132 - 10:30 - 12:00
PPP - Polar Prediction Project
Chair: Jonny Day


10:30 SCI-PS132.01 - Processes influencing predictability of sea ice on subseasonal and longer timescales
Marika Holland1, 1NCAR, Boulder, USA

11:00 SCI-PS132.02 - What causes foehn warming? – The Antarctic Peninsula as a natural laboratory
Andrew Elvidge1, Ian Renfrew1, 1UEA, Norwich, UK


11:20 SCI-PS132.03 - The influence of stochastic sea ice parameterization on potential polar predictability
Stephan Juricke1, Helge F. Goessling1, Thomas Jung1, 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

11:40 SCI-PS132.04 - The dynamics of polar lows in reverse shear
Annick Terpstra1, Thomas Spengler1, 1University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS133 - 10:30 - 12:00
S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Chair: Frederic Vitart


10:30 SCI-PS133.01 - Recent advances and challenges in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions: predictability, dynamical and physical processes
Gilbert Brunet2, Hai Lin1, Adam Scaife2, 1Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada, 2Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:00 SCI-PS133.02 - Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability
Daniela Domeisen1, Amy Butler2, Kristina Fröhlich3, Wolfgang Müller4, Johanna Baehr1, 1University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Hamburg, Germany, 2NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA, 3Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 4Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS133.03 - Potential predictability, practical prediction skill, and ensemble dispersion of MJO in operational forecasting systems
Hyemi Kim1, Peter Webster2, Violeta Toma2, Daehyun Kim3, 1Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, USA, 2Georgia Institute of Tech., Atlanta, USA, 3University of Washington, Seattle, USA

11:40 SCI-PS133.04 - MJO hindcasts with the Super-parameterized CCSM4
Cristiana Stan1, 1George Mason University, Fairfax, USA

SCI-PS134 - 13:30 - 15:00
NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Global and medium- range aspects
Chair: Bill Lapenta

13:30 SCI-PS134.01 - The ECMWF coupled Ensemble: from medium to extended range forecasts
Frederic Vitart1, Roberto Buizza1, Franco Molteni1, Martin Leutbecher1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

14:00 SCI-PS134.02 - Implementation of a new dynamical core in the Met Office Unified Model
Andrew Brown1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK


14:20 SCI-PS134.03 - Skill improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system
Erland Källén1, Linus Magnusson1, András Horányi1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

14:40 SCI-PS134.04 - Seamless prediction from the surface to the exobase: First Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) medium-range forecasts
Houjun Wang1, Rashid Akmaev2, Fei Wu1, Jun Wang3, 1University of Colorado, Boulder, USA, 2NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, USA, 3NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, USA

SCI-PS135 - 13:30 - 15:00
ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools
Chair: Mark Buehner

13:30 SCI-PS135.01 - The gig filter and its potential use in Earth-system analysis and prediction
Craig Bishop1, 1Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA

14:00 SCI-PS135.02 - How do model error and localization approaches affect model parameter estimation in the LETKF?
Juan Ruiz1, Takemasa Miyoshi2, Masaru Kunii3, 1University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, 3Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

14:20 SCI-PS135.03 - 4-Dimensional Ensemble Variational data assimilation for LAM
Jelena Bojarova1, Nils Gustafsson2, Magnus Lindskog2, Tomas Landelius2, 1Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 2Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

14:40 SCI-PS135.04 - Rapid, short-term ensemble forecast adjustment through offline data assimilation
Luke Madaus1, Gregory Hakim1, 1University of Washington, Seattle, USA

SCI-PS136- 13:30 - 15:00
ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents
Chair: Vincent-Henri Peuch

13:30 SCI-PS136.01 - Measurement of atmospheric constituents from space: history and state-of-art
Pawan Bhartia1, Omar Torres1, Nickolay Krotkov1, Richard McPeters1, 1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA

14:00 SCI-PS136.02 - International study group on the added value of chemical data assimilation in the stratosphere
Richard Menard1, Quentin Errera2, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Belgium Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium

14:20 SCI-PS136.03 - Transport and dispersion patterns of aerosols over the East African region using AOD data
Daniel Mbithi1, John Muthama2, Franklin Opijah2, Gilbert Ouma2, 1Kenya Meteorological Services, Nanyuki, Kenya, 2University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

14:40 SCI-PS136.04 - Variability in aerosol optical depth and its relationship with meteorological parameters over mega-city Lahore (Pakistan)
Salman Tariq1, 1University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

SCI-PS137 - 13:30 - 15:00
ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models
Chair: Zoltan Toth

13:30 SCI-PS137.01 - Recent activities on “Big Data Assimilation” in Japan
Takemasa Miyoshi1, Masaru Kunii2, Juan Ruiz1,3, Hiromu Seko2, Shinsuke Satoh4, Tomoo Ushio5, Yutaka Ishikawa6, Hirofumi Tomita1, Kotaro Bessho7, 1RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, 3University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 4National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan, 5Osaka University, Osaka, Japan, 6University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 7Meteorological
Satellite Center, Tokyo, Japan

14:00 SCI-PS137.02 - How temporally representative are synoptic observations?
Marion Mittermaier1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

14:20 SCI-PS137.03 - AROME-WMED, a real-time mesoscale model designed for the HyMeX Special Observation Periods
Nadia Fourrie1, Emilie Bresson1, Mathieu Nuret1, Cassandre Jany1, Pierre Brousseau1, Alexis Doerenbecher1, Michael Kreitz2, Hervé Benichou2, Marielle Amodei2, Francis Pouponneau2, 1CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France, 2Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

14:40 SCI-PS137.04 - Improving vortex scale hurricane prediction using the hybrid EnKF-Var data assimilation method
Xuguang Wang1, Xu Lu1, 1University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

SCI-PS138- 13:30 - 15:00
Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)
Chair: Alexander Baklanov


13:30 SCI-PS138.01 - Predictability study using the Environment Canada Chemical Data Assimilation (EC CDA) system
Jean de Grandpre1, Yves J. Rochon2, Richard Menard1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Downsview, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS138.02 - Model evaluation of meteorological processes important for North African dust emission
Stephanie Fiedler1, Kerstin Schepanski2, Peter Knippertz3, Bernd Heinold2, Nicolas Bellouin4, Ina Tegen2, Stephanie Woodward5, 1University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 2Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany, 3Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 4University of Reading, Reading, UK, 5UK Met Office, Exeter, UK

14:20 SCI-PS138.03 - Physiochemical and optical characteristics of aerosols observed in South Korea
Seungbum Kim1, Sang-Sam Lee1, Jeong-Eun Kim1, Ju-Wan Cha1, Beom- Cheol Shin1, Eunha Lim1, Jae-Cheol Nam1, 1National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea

14:40 SCI-PS138.04 - Distribution of tropospheric ozone over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Mayra Oyola1, Everette Joseph1, Nicholas Nalli2, Cassie Stearns1, Vernon Morris1, Anne Thompson3, Adrian Flores1, Christopher Barnet2, Dan Wolfe4, 1Howard University, Washington, USA, 2NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, USA, 3NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, USA, 4NOAA/PSD, Boulder, USA


SCI-PS139 - 13:30 - 15:00
P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions
Chair: Carolyn Reynolds

13:30 SCI-PS139.01 - Dynamics of Rossby Wave Trains in a quantitative PV-Θ framework
Franziska Gierth1, Michael Riemer1, Volkmar Wirth1, 1Johannes Gutenberg- University, Mainz, Germany

14:00 SCI-PS139.02 - Added value to the investigation of Rossby wave-trains by using the wave activity flux diagnostic
Gabriel Wolf1, Volkmar Wirth1, 1Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany

14:20 SCI-PS139.03 - Triggering mechanisms of Rossby Wave Trains terminating in Western Europe and the sensible weather impact
Richard Moore1, Colin Thornton1, 1Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA

14:40 SCI-PS139.04 - Object-based forecast verification tool for Rossby waveguides
Paraskevi Giannakaki1, Olivia Martius1, 1Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

SCI-PS140 - 13:30 - 15:00
Tropical cyclones and tropical convection
Chair: Suzanna Camargo

13:30 SCI-PS140.01 - Predictability and data assimilation of tropical cyclones
Fuqing Zhang1, 1Penn State University, University Park, USA

14:00 SCI-PS140.02 - Sensitivity of WRF to physical parameterization: A case study on Haiyan over the Philippines
Mark Daryl Ramos1, Karl Anton Retumban1, Jay Samuel Combinido1, Gay Jane Perez1, 1University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines

14:20 SCI-PS140.03 - Predicting tropical cyclone intensity forecast error
Kieran Bhatia1, David Nolan1, 1University of Miami, Miami, USA

14:40 SCI-PS140.04 - Application of ensemble forecasts to investigate tropical cyclone intensity changes: Hurricane Katia (2011)
Rosimar Rios-Berrios1, Ryan D. Torn1, 1University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, USA

SCI-PS141 - 13:30 - 15:00
PPP - Polar Prediction Project
Chair: Marika Holland

13:30 SCI-PS141.01 - The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)
David Bromwich1, Jordan Powers2, Kevin Manning2, 1Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, USA, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA


14:00 SCI-PS141.02 - Weather service in the Dronning Maud Land and beyond Gert
König-Langlo1, Bernd Loose1, Holger Schmithüsen1, Thomas Schmidt2, Milan Klöwer3, Simone Heupel Santos4, 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany, 2Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Oldenburg University, Oldenburg, Germany, 3GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, 4Institute of Landscape Ecology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany (exceeds size limit)

14:20 SCI-PS141.03 - Concordiasi Dropsondes: Improved characterization of errors in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
James Russell1, David Parsons1, Steven Cavallo1, 1School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

14:40 SCI-PS141.04 - Ensemble data assimilation in a mesoscale model during CONCORDIASI (2010)
Christopher Riedel1, Matt Elliot1, Steven Cavallo1, 1University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

SCI-PS142 - 13:30 - 15:00
S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Chair: Andrew Robertson

13:30 SCI-PS142.01 - Stationary wave driving as a potential mechanism to exploit for extratropical S2S prediction
Paul Kushner1, 1University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS142.02 - Towards a U.S. national earth system prediction capability
Daniel Eleuterio1, Jessie Carman2, David McCarren3, Frederick Toepfer4, 1Office of Naval Research, Arlington, USA, 2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Silver Spring, USA, 3Naval Meterology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, USA, 4National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, USA

14:20 SCI-PS142.03 - Predictability of the sudden stratospheric warming of 2012- 2013 and associated skill for the surface forecast
Om Tripathi1, Andrew Charlton-Perez1, Mark Baldwin2, Martin Charron3, Steven Eckermann4, Yuhiji Kuroda5, Greg Roff6, Seok-Woo Son7, David Jackson8, Edwin Edwin9, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK, 2University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, 3Environment Canada, Canada, 4Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA, 5Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, 6Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 7Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea, 8Met Office, Exeter, UK, 9New York University, New York, USA

14:40 SCI-PS142.04 - Influence of large-scale climate modes on atmospheric rivers that drive regional precipitation extremes
Bin Guan1, Noah Molotch2,3, Duane Waliser3, Eric Fetzer3, Paul Neiman4, 1Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, USA, 2Department of Geography and Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USA, 3Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA, 4Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS143 - 13:30 - 15:00
WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process
Chair: Timothy Hewson

13:30 SCI-PS143.01 - Statistical interpretation of Model Output – An essential link between model and user
Laurence Wilson1, 1Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS143.02 - The future role of statistical postprocessing in weather forecasting
Klaus Knuepffer1, Philip Lorenz1, 1Meteo Service, Berlin, Germany


14:20 SCI-PS143.03 - Post-processing methods for probabilistic convection forecasts based on the limited-area ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of DWD
Lars Wiegand1, Christoph Gebhardt1, 1German Meteorological Service, Offenbach, Germany


14:40 SCI-PS143.04 - ModelMIX – optimal combination of NWP Model Forecasts for AutoWARN
Tamas Hirsch1, Reinhold Hess1, Sebastian Trepte1, Cristina Primo1, Jenny Glashoff1, Bernhard Reichert1, Dirk Heizenreder1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

UAS-PS313 - 13:30 - 15:00
Understanding the perception and use of weather information in decision-making
Chair: Sebastien Nobert


13:40 UAS-PS313.01 - Flood risk and uncertainty: assessing the national weather service's flood forecast and warning tools
Rachel Hogan Carr1, Burrell Montz2, 1Nurture Nature Center, Easton, PA, USA, 2East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, USA

14:00 UAS-PS313.02 - From research to end-users services at Meteo-France
Isabelle Donet1, Grégoire Pigeon1, Béatrice Pouponneau1, 1Météo-France, Toulouse, France

14:20 UAS-PS313.03 - Communicating scientific forecasting techniques to end users for WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project
Khan Rahaman1, Val Swail2, Boram Lee3, 1Wilfrid Laurier University, CAS, Brantford, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 3World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland

14:40 UAS-PS313.04 - Warning decisions in extreme weather events: An integrated multi-method approach
Rebecca Morss1, Jeffrey Lazo1, Ann Bostrom2, Julie Demuth1, Heather Lazrus1, 1NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA, 2University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

UAS-PS314 - 13:30 - 15:00
Better ways to transfer knowledge among scientists, forecasters, and users of weather information
Chair: Eugene Poolman

13:40 UAS-PS314.01 - Driving economic development through Innovation technology in weather information application
Ben Jong-Dao Jou1, Tien-Chiang Yeh2, Camyale Chao1, 1ACTS, Taipei, Taiwan, 2Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan

14:00 UAS-PS314.02 - Understanding the need of decision makers: an approach to develop better products and services
Serge Desjardins1, 1National Lab for Marine and Coastal Meteorology, Environment Canada, Halifax, Canada

14:20 UAS-PS314.03 - Crowd-sourcing for obtaining data on an extreme tornado: A new model informing meteorological research
Anton Seimon1, John Allen2, 1Appalachian State University, North Carolina, USA, 2International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York, USA


14:40 UAS-PS314.04 - Communicating weather and impacts in remote Alaska in a new age of social media
Aimee Fish1, Donald Moore1, Samuel Shea1, 1NOAA National Weather Service, Anchorage, United States

SCI-PS144 - 16:30 - 18:00
ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction
Chair: Peter Taylor

16:30 SCI-PS144.01 - Using a novel coupled-modelling framework to reduce tropical precipitation biases
Nicholas Klingaman1, Steve Woolnough1, 1University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK

17:00 SCI-PS144.02 - Sensitivity study of a heavy precipitating event to the sea state using convection-permitting model simulations
Ophelie Thevenot1, Marie-Noelle Bouin1, Veronique Ducrocq2, Cindy Lebeaupin-Brossier2, Olivier Nuissier2, Fanny Duffourg2, 1Meteo-France/CNRM, Brest, France, 2Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

17:20 SCI-PS144.03 - Working towards a first-ever operational coupled lake-ice- atmosphere forecasting system in Canada
Sarah Dyck1, Fred Dupont1, Francois Roy2, Greg Smith2, Vincent Fortin2, Murray MacKay2, Jun Zhao3, Ram Yerubandi3, 1National Prediction Development Division, Environment Canada, Dorval,Canada, 2Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, 3Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment Canada

17:40 SCI-PS144.04 - Impact of sea ice on global coupled medium-range atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasts
Ryan Muncaster1, Gregory Smith1, Francois Roy1, Jean-Marc Belanger1, Chris Subich1, Sarah Dyck2, Daniel Deacu2, Pierre Pellerin1, Harold Ritchie3, Jean- Francois Lemieux1, 1Environment Canada - Recherche en Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Dorval, Canada, 2Environment Canada - Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3Environment Canada - Recherche en
Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Dartmouth, Canada Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Dartmouth, Canada


SCI-PS146 - 16:30 - 18:00
ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents
Chair: Arlindo da Silva

16:30 SCI-PS146.01 - Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of MOPITT CO Retrieval Profiles with WRF/Chem-DART
Arthur Mizzi1, Ave Arellano2, David Edwards1, Jeff Anderson3, Jerome Barre1, 1Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 2Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, 3Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,USA

17:00 SCI-PS146.02 - The joint Canadian-Swedish Atmospheric Limb Sounding Satellite (ALiSS) mission
Doug Degenstein1, Adam Bourassa1, Donal Murtagh2, Jo Urban2, Chris McLinden3, Yves Rochon3, Thomas Piekutowski4, Fredrik Von Schele5, Christer Nillson6, 1University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, 2Chalmers University of Technology, Goteborg, Sweden, 3Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 4Canadian Space Agency, St. Hubert, Canada, 5OmniSys Instruments,
Stockholm, Sweden, 6Swedish National Space Board, Stockholm, Sweden

17:20 SCI-PS146.03 - BASCOE ensemble data assimilation stratospheric chemistry system
Sergey Skachko1, Quentin Errera2, Richard Ménard2, Yves Christophe1, Simon Chabrillat1, 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BIRA-IASB, Brussels, Belgium, 2Environment Canada, Air Quality Research Division, Dorval, Canada (exceeds size limit)

17:40 SCI-PS146.04 - Assimilation of water vapour measurements by a Chemistry Transport Model in the tropical UTLS
Swagata Payra1,2,3, Philippe Ricaud1, Rachid Abida1, Jean-Luc Attié1,2, Laaziz El Amraoui1, Fabien Carminati1,2,4, Emmanuel Rivière5, Jean-Pierre Pommereau6, Sergey Khaykin6, 1CNRM GAME, Météo-France, France, 2Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France, 3Birla Institute of Technology Mesra, Extension Centre Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, 4AOSC, University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 5GSMA, CNRS, Université Champagne Ardennes, Reims, France, 6LATMOS, CNRS,
Université Versailles St. Quentin, Guyancourt, France

SCI-PS147 - 16:30 - 18:00
ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models
Chair: Thomas Blackmore

16:30 SCI-PS147.01 - Efficient radar forward operator for operational data assimilation within the COSMO-model
Yuefei Zeng1, Ulrich Blahak1, 1DWD, Offenbach, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS147.02 - Enhancing information transfer from observations to unobserved state variables for mesoscale radar data assimilation
Weiguang Chang1, Isztar Zawadzki1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada


17:20 SCI-PS147.03 - Assimilation of 3D radar reflectivity with an Ensemble Kalman Filter on a convection-permitting scale
Theresa Bick1,3, Silke Troemel1,3, Kathrin Wapler2,3, Clemens Simmer1, 1Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, 2German Weather Service, Offenbach, Germany, 3Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability Branch

17:40 SCI-PS147.04 - Testing convective scale data assimilation in severe storm cases using variational LAPS
Hongli Jiang1, Yuanfu Xie2, Steve Albers1, Zoltan Toth2, 1NOAA/ESRL/CIRA, Boulder, CO, USA, 2NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, USA

SCI-PS148 - 16:30 - 18:00
Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions
Chair: John Gyakum

16:30 SCI-PS148.01 - Eddy kinetic-energy redistribution within real and idealized extratropical storms
Gwendal Riviere1, Philippe Arbogast2, Alain Joly2, 1Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France, 2CNRM-GAME, Météo-France & CNRS, Toulouse, France

17:00 SCI-PS148.02 - Historical research perspective of the lifecycle of extratropical cyclones: observations and high-resolution numerical simulations
Melvyn Shapiro1, 1NCAR/NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA (exceeds size limit)

17:20 SCI-PS148.03 - Microphysical heating rates in a warm conveyor belt: Comparison of a COSMO and IFS simulation
Hanna Joos1, Maxi Boettcher1, Richard Forbes2, Heini Wernli1, 1IAC ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK

17:40 SCI-PS148.04 - The role of post-cold frontal cumulus clouds in an extratropical cyclone case study
Amanda Sheffield1, Susan van den Heever1, 1Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA

SCI-PS149 - 16:30 - 18:00
Tropical cyclones and tropical convection
Chair: Paul Roundy

16:30 SCI-PS149.01 - Global climatology of vertical wind shear near tropical disturbances
Thomas Galarneau1, Christopher Davis1, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA


17:00 SCI-PS149.02 - Tropical cyclones in vertical shear: Impact on the inflow layer of storms in idealized experiments
Michael Riemer1, Michael T. Montgomery2, Melville E. Nicholls3, 1Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany, 2Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA, 3University of Colorado CIRES, Boulder, USA

17:20 SCI-PS149.03 - Upper-tropospheric precursors associated with subtropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic Basin
Alicia Bentley1, Daniel Keyser1, Lance Bosart1, 1University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, USA

17:40 SCI-PS149.04 - A large number of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model
Kosuke ito1,2,3, Tohru Kuroda1,2, Akiyoshi Wada2, Kazuo Saito2,1, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, 3University of the Ryukyus, Naha, Japan

SCI-PS150 - 16:30 - 18:00
PPP - Polar Prediction Project
Chair: Dave Bromwich

16:30 SCI-PS150.01 - Global NWP model performance in polar areas
Peter Bauer1, Linus Magnusson1, Jean-Noel Thepaut1, Thomas M Hamill2, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2NOAA ESRL, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS150.02 - Sea ice forecast verification in the Canadian Global Ice Ocean Prediction System
Gregory Smith1, Francois Roy1, Mateusz Reszka1, Dorina Surcel-Colan1, Zhongjie He1, Daniel Deacu1, Frederic Dupont1, Jean-Francois Lemieux1, Gilles Garric2, Charles-Emmanuel Testut2, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Mercator-Ocean, Toulouse, France

17:20 SCI-PS150.03 - High-resolution atmospheric NWP modelling over Australian Antarctic bases
Phillip Reid1, 1Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Hobart, Australia

17:40 SCI-PS150.04 - Assimilating SMOS sea ice thickness into a coupled ice- ocean model using a local SEIK filter
Qinghua Yang1,2, Svetlana N. Losa2, Martin Losch2, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze3, Lars Nerger2, Jiping Liu4, Zhanhai Zhang5, 1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China, 2Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholt Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany, 3University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Hamburg, Germany, 4State University of New York,
University at Albany, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, USA, 5Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China

SCI-PS151 - 16:30 - 18:00
S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Chair: Hai Lin

16:30 SCI-PS151.01 - Diagnosing subseasonal predictability of tropical anomalies
Matthew Newman1, 1University of Colorado, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS151.02 - Highlights from Project Minerva: Towards seamless high- resolution climate prediction
Benjamin Cash1, 1COLA-GMU, Fairfax, USA


17:20 SCI-PS151.03 - Feasibility study of sub-seasonal prediction with an atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled model
Yuhei Takaya1,2, Tamaki Yasuda2, 1Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

17:40 SCI-PS151.04 - Ensemble generation methods and skill of subseasonal predictions in the NCEP GEFS
Malaquias Peña1, Yuejian Zhu1, Dingchen Hou1, Richard Wobus1, Hong Guan1, Qin Zhang2, 1Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA, 2Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA

SCI-PS152 - 16:30 - 18:00
WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process
Chair: Estelle de Coning

16:30 SCI-PS152.01 - What makes a good ensemble forecast?
Chris Ferro1, 1University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

17:00 SCI-PS152.02 - An operational system for forecasting of turbulence in the vicinity of airports in Norway
Knut Helge Midtbo1, Jakob Suild1, Karstein Soerli2, Joern Kristiansen1, 1The Norwegian Meteorlogical institute, Oslo, Norway, 2SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics, Trondheim, Norway

17:20 SCI-PS152.03 - Predictability of winter storm damages
Tobias Pardowitz1,3, Martin Goeber2,3, Uwe Ulbrich1, 1Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Germany

17:40 SCI-PS152.04 - A forecasting system for snow and ice accretion on cable stay bridges and power lines
Jeff R. Lundgren1, Ron J. Chapman2, Francoise Robe2, Darren Cherneski2, 1RWDI, Vancouver, Canada, 2RWDI, Calgary, Canada

SCI-PS153 - 16:30 - 18:00
NPE - Cross-cutting research on verification techniques
Chair: Ric Crocker

16:30 SCI-PS153.01 - Met Office post-processing of operational NWP forecasts
Andrew Bennett1, Ian Pearman1, Stephen Moseley1, Caroline Jones1, James Canvin1, Simon Jackson1, Bruce Wright1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

17:00 SCI-PS153.02 - Observation-based ensemble spread-error relationship
Munehiko Yamaguchi1, Simon Lang2, Martin Leutbecher2, Mark Rodwell2, Gabor Radnoti2, Niels Bormann2, 1Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan, 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK


17:20 SCI-PS153.03 - Verifying modelled currents using a threshold exceedance approach
Ray Mahdon1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

17:40 SCI-PS153.04 - Verification of the linguistic uncertainty of warning uncertainty
Martin Goeber1,3, Tobias Pardowitz2,3, Thomas Kox2,3, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 2Institut fuer Meteorologie Freie Universitaet, Berlin, Germany, 3Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research Germany

UAS-PS315 - 16:30 - 18:00
Understanding the perception and use of weather information in decision-making
Chair: Rebecca Morss

16:40 UAS-PS315.01 - Social and behavioral influences on decision-making by emergency managers
Burrell Montz1, Kenneth Galluppi2, Jessica Losego3, James Correia4, Rachel Riley4, 1East Carolina University, Greenville, NC USA, 2Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ USA, 3University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC USA, 4University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK USA

17:00 UAS-PS315.02 - Psychological dimensions of risk perception and disaster preparedness for natural disasters in Canada
An Gie Yong1, Louise Lemyre1, Celine Pinsent1, Tim Dugas1, Daniel Krewski2, 1GAP-Santé - University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, 2R. Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment - University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada

17:20 UAS-PS315.03 - Developing a valid scale of past experiences for tornado risks
Julie Demuth1, 1NCAR and CSU, Boulder, USA

17:40 UAS-PS315.04 - Perception and use of weather information in decision- making by members of the Canadian public
Jean Andrey1, Amber Silver1, 1University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario

UAS-PS316 - 16:30 - 18:00
Communication of uncertainty in forecasts, impacts and responses
Chair: Joanne Robbins

16:40 UAS-PS316.01 - Dimensions of risk and uncertainty perception in severe weather forecasts and warnings
Thomas Kox1, 1Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

17:00 UAS-PS316.02 - Why forecasts fail: ensemble prediction, early warnings and the challenges of emergency management
Sebastien Nobert1, 1CNRS, Aquitaine, France

17:20 UAS-PS316.03 - Focusing on the hazards: Upcoming changes to NHC products and warnings
Richard Knabb1, 1NOAA National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL


17:40 UAS-PS316.04 - Forecasting surface water flooding from intense summer convective storms using a convection-permitting ensemble
Brian Golding1, Nigel Roberts2, Susan Ballard2, Ken Mylne1, Richard Swinbank1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK, 2Met Office, Reading, UK


UAS-PS319 - 16:30 – 18:00
Military, defense, fire and international aid applications
Chair: Jamie Smith

16:40 UAS-PS319.01 - Ensemble SAR drift trajectories using Canadian, U.S. NCEP, and U.S. Navy FNMOC ensembles
Syd Peel1, 1Environment Canada/Meteorological Research Division/RPN-E, Toronto, CANADA

17:00 UAS-PS319.02 - Forecast-based disaster risk management: A financial mechanism for climate-informed humanitarian action
Erin Coughlan1,2, Maarten van Aalst1, Bart van den Hurk2, Pablo Suarez1, 1Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands, 2Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

17:20 UAS-PS319.03 - High resolution wildfires simulation, forecasting tools to estimate front evolution, fire induced weather and pollution
Christine Lac1, Frédéric Bosseur2, Valéry Masson1, Jean-Baptiste Filipi2, 1Météo-France CNRM, Toulouse, France, 2CNRS Università di Corsica, Corti, France

17:40 UAS-PS319.04 - Providing meteorological services to the Canadian Armed Forces through network-based services
Martha Anderson1, Clarke Bedford1, Lt.-Col. Joseph Barry2, 1Directorate of Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of National Defence, Ottawa, Canada, 2Joint Meteorological Centre, Department of National Defence, Gagetown, Canada




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