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> World Weather Research Programme

The World Weather Open Science Conference

Presentations

(19 August 2014)

WW-JPL04
08:30 - 10:00 Joint Plenary Session Room
Chairs: Jan Eichner and Aida Diongue-Niang

WW-JPL04.01 – The complementary roles of insurance and weather information in managing risk
Rowan Douglas , Willis Research Network, London, UK

WW-JPL04.02 - Directions in mesoscale and convective scale prediction
Michael Reeder - Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

SCI-PS154 - 10:30 - 12:00
ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle
Chair: Ayrton Zadra

SCI-PS154.01 - Representing inland water bodies and coastal areas in global numerical weather prediction: sensitivity and impact
Gianpaolo Balsamo1, Anton Beljaars1, Souhail Boussetta1, Emanuel Dutra1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

SCI-PS154.02 - High-resolution surface analysis with offline surface scheme
Leo Separovic1, Syed Husain1, David Fernig1, Wei Yu1, 1Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS154.03 - Ensemble data assimilation to characterize surface-layer errors in numerical weather prediction models
Joshua Hacker1, Wayne Angevine2, 1NCAR Research Applications Lab, Boulder, USA, 2CIRES-CU-NOAA, Boulder, CO

SCI-PS154.04 - A parameterization for land surface physical characteristics of burning areas for weather and climate models
Yihua Wu1, Mike Ek1, 1NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States

SCI-PS155 - 10:30 - 12:00
ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction
Chair: Steven Krueger

SCI-PS155.01 - The role of waves in air-sea interaction
Øyvind Saetra1, 1The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

SCI-PS155.02 - Stochastic parametrization of wave breaking in wave-current interactions
Jorge Ramirez1, Juan Restrepo2, 1Universidad de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia, 2University of Arizona, Tuscon, AZ, USA

SCI-PS155.03 - Western Mediterranean Sea air-sea exchanges from the AROME-WMED model during the HyMeX campaign
Romain Rainaud1, Cindy Lebeaupin-Brossier1, Véronique Ducrocq1, Hervé Giordani1, 1Météo-France CNRM/GAME, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS155.04 - Regional coupled atmosphere ocean modelling in the North Sea region
Lydia Gates1, Katharina Buelow2, Annette Ganske2, Hartmut Heinrich2, Birgit Klein2, Holger Klein2, Jens Moeller2, Gudrun Rosenhagen1, Nils Schade2, Birger Tinz1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany, 2Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, Hamburg, Germany

SCI-PS156 - 10:30 - 12:00
S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Chair: Randall Dole


SCI-PS156.01 - Subseasonal to seasonal prediction: CPC operational outlooks and other applications
Jon Gottschalck1, 1NOAA / Climate Prediction Center, College Park, USA

SCI-PS156.02 - Toward seamless prediction of severe weather activity
Michael Tippett1, Adam Sobel0, Suzana Camargo2, John Allen3, 1Dept. Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, NY, USA, 2LDEO, Columbia University, NY, USA, 3IRI, Columbia University, NY, USA

SCI-PS156.03 - Monthly probabilistic drought forecasting in Europe and Africa using the ECMWF Ensemble system
Christophe Lavaysse1, Juergen Vogt1, Florian Pappenberger2, Paulo Barbosa1, 1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK

SCI-PS156.04 - Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction for dynamic cropping calendars in Indonesia
Andrew Robertson1, Dong Eun Lee2, Rizaldi Boer3, Akhmad Faqih3, Agus Buono3, 1IRI, Columbia University, Palisades,USA, 2LDEO, Columbia University, Palisades, USA, 3Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia

SCI-PS157 - 10:30 - 12:00
NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects
Chair: Virginie Marécal


SCI-PS157.01 - Numerical Environmental Prediction, on the way towards more integrated forecasting of the Earth System
Stephane Belair1, 1Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS157.02 - UK Environmental Prediction – integration and evaluation at the convective scale
Huw Lewis1, Gilbert Brunet1, Chris Harris1, Martin Best1, Andy Saulter1, Jason Holt2, Lucy Bricheno2, Nick Reynard3, Eleanor Blyth3, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK, 2NERC National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK, 3NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK


SCI-PS157.03 - The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): A maturation of frequently updating convection-allowing numerical weather prediction
Curtis Alexander1, Stan Benjamin2, Steve Weygandt2, David Dowell2, Ming Hu1, Tanya Smirnova1, Joe Olson1, John Brown2, Eric James1, Haidao Lin3, 1Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder,USA, 2NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA, 3Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS157.04 - The development of a high resolution operational model at JMA
Kengo Matsubayashi1, Kohei Kawano1, Junichi Ishida1, Tabito Hara1, Hisaki Eito1, 1Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

SCI-PS158 - 10:30 - 12:00
ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools
Chair: Fabio Diniz

SCI-PS158.01 - Atmospheric data assimilation and predictability: a three- dimensional modal view
Nedjeljka Zagar1, 1University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia

SCI-PS158.02 - Use of ensembles to renew and improve adjoint-based adaptive observation strategies.
Niels Oger1, Olivier Pannekoucke1, Alexis Doerenbecher1, Philippe Arbogast1, 1CNRM-GAME UMR3589 Météo-France, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS158.03 - Ensemble estimation of background-error covariances using stochastic wind forcing: a coastal data assimilative twin experiment
Vassilios Vervatis1,2, Pierre De Mey2, Charles-Emmanuel Testut1, Nadia Ayoub2, Giovanni Quattrocchi3, 1Mercator-Ocean, Toulouse, France, 2LEGOS/CNRS, Toulouse, France, 3IAMC/CNR, Oristano, Italy

SCI-PS158.04 - The consequences of neglecting the correlation of errors in radar data assimilation
Dominik Jacques1, Isztar Zawadzki1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS159 - 10:30 - 12:00
ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents
Chair: Pablo Saide

SCI-PS159.01 - Assimilation of atmospheric constituents: highlights from MACC-II/Copernicus
Vincent-Henri Peuch1, Richard Engelen1, Angela Benedetti1, Antje Inness1, Sebastien Massart1, Mark Parrington1, 1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

SCI-PS159.02 - Data assimilation of trace gases in a chemical transport model: the impact on model forecasts.
Emanuele Emili1, Olivier Pannekoucke1,2, Elodie Jaumouillé1, Andrea Piacentini1, Daniel Cariolle1, 1CERFACS, Toulouse, France, 2Météo France - CNRM, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS159.03 - Assimilation of surface chemical species observations into the Canadian GEM-MACH model using optimal interpolation
Alain Robichaud1, Richard Ménard1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS159.04 - Global CO data assimilation for emissions and trends analysis
Benjamin Gaubert1, Jérôme Barré1, Helen Worden1, David Edwards1, Louisa Emmons1, Simone Tilmes1, Arthur Mizzi1, Avelino Arellano2, Jeffrey Anderson3, Nancy Collins3, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Division (NCAR / ACD), Boulder, USA, 2University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (NCAR / IMAGe), USA

SCI-PS160 - 10:30 - 12:00
ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales
Chair: Dave Turner

SCI-PS160.01 - Filling gaps in the observation network for thermodynamic profiling by a ground-based microwave radiometer network
Susanne Crewell1, Ulrich Loehnert1, Domenico Cimini2, 1University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, 2CNR-IMAA, Potenza, Italy

SCI-PS160.02 - Volume scanning microwave radiometry for convection forecasting
Frederic Fabry1, Veronique Meunier1, David Themens1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS160.03 - Next generation airborne polarimetric doppler weather radar
Wen-Chau Lee1, James Moore1, Jothiram Vivekanandan1, Eric Loew1, Jorge L. Salazar1, Pei-Sang Tsai1, Vanda Grubišić1, Maureen Donovan1, 1NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

SCI-PS160.04 - Strategic importance of FarIR Data for forecasting cold airmass formation in the Polar Vortex
Jean-Pierre Blanchet1, Yacine Bouzid1, Pierre Gauthier1, Éric Girard1, 1Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Canada
(exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS161 - 10:30 - 12:00
Tropical cyclones and tropical convection
Chair: Johnny Chan

SCI-PS161.01 - Radiative-convective instability and tropical weather and climate prediction
Kerry Emanuel1, 1MIT, Cambridge, USA

SCI-PS161.02 - The role of tropical cyclones in cross-equatorial total energy transport
Benjamin Schenkel1, Lance Bosart1, Daniel Keyser1, Robert Hart2, 1University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, USA, 2The Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA

SCI-PS161.03 - The sensitivity of hurricane frequency to ITCZ changes and radiatively forced warming in aquaplanet simulations
Timothy Merlis1, Ming Zhao2, Isaac Held3, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2UCAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA, 3NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA

SCI-PS161.04 - Tropical cyclone intensity probability prediction in a changing climate: A multiple-linear regression modeling approach
Chia-Ying Lee1, Michael K. Tippett2, Suzana J. Camargo3, Adam H. Sobel2,3,4, 1International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, USA, 2Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA, 3Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, USA, 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, USA

SCI-PS162 - 10:30 - 12:00
P&P - Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)
Chair: Bernhard Vogel

SCI-PS162.01 - Chemistry in the ECMWF integrated forecast system: Model performance and future perspectives
Vincent Huijnen1, Johannes Flemming2, Antje Inness2, Martin Schultz3, 1KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK, 3Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany

SCI-PS162.02 - Simulation over Pakistan using the WRF-Chem model: A case study
Muhammad Zeeshaan Shahid1, Liao Hong1, Jianping Li1, 1Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

SCI-PS162.03 - Impact of emission schemes on online air quality modelling
Carlos Ordóñez1, Mohit Dalvi1, Nicholas H. Savage1, Paul Agnew1, Lucy S. Davis1, Marie Tilbee1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS162.04 - Long-term changes in extreme air pollution meteorology and implications for air quality
Pei Hou1, Shiliang Wu1, Jessica McCarty1, 1Michigan Technologial University, Houghton, USA

SCI-PS163 - 10:30 - 12:00
P&P - Continental convective systems
Chair: David Parsons

SCI-PS163.01 - Empirical studies of predictability at convective scales
Isztar Zawadzki1, Madalina Surcel1, Aitor Atencia1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS163.02 - Synergetic use of multi-sensor data sets for improved nowcasting of severe convective weather events
Kathrin Wapler1, Theresa Bick1, Hartwig Deneke2, Malte Diederich1, Akos Horvath1, Fabian Senf1, Clemens Simmer3, Jürgen Simon1, Silke Trömel1, 1Hans Ertel Research Centre for Weather Research, Germany, 2Institute for Tropospheric Research,
Leipzig, Germany, 3University of Bonn, Meteorological Institute, Germany


SCI-PS163.03 - The decorrelation scale: methodology and application for precipitation forecasts
Madalina Surcel1, Isztar Zawadzki1, M. K. Yau1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS163.04 - Continental Heavy Rainfall Predictability: the THORPEX West Africa case study
Aida Diongue-Niang1, Jean-Philippe Lafore2, Florent Beucher2, Nicolas Chapelon3, Emmanuel Poan2, Romain Roehrig2, Tidiane Diedhiou1, 1ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal, 2CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France, 3DP/CISMF, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS164 - 10:30 - 12:00
PPP - Polar Prediction Project
Chair: Stephan Juricke

SCI-PS164.01 - The New Arctic: challenges, opportunities and concerns
Mark Serreze1, 1NSIDC, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS164.02 - Issues in the dynamical seasonal prediction of the Arctic sea ice
Wanqiu Wang1, Mingyue Chen1, Arun Kumar1, 1Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, College Park, USA

SCI-PS164.03 - Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialisation improve the skill of coupled forecasts?
Jonathan Day1, Ed Hawkins1, Steffen Tietsche1, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK

SCI-PS164.04 - Advances in seasonal forecasting of the Arctic ocean, sea ice and biogeochemistry with CNRM-CM
Matthieu Chevallier1, David Salas y Mélia1, Virginie Guémas1,2, Eric Brun1, Gilles Garric3, Marion Gehlen4, Roland Séférian1, Martin Vancoppenolle5, 1CNRM-GAME Météo-France CNRS, Toulouse, France, 2IC3, Barcelona, Spain, 3Mercator-Océan, Ramonville-Saint Agne, France, 4IPSL-LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 5IPSL-LOCEAN, Paris, France

SCI-PS165 - 10:30 - 12:00
WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process
Chair: Lans Rothfusz

10:30 SCI-PS165.01 - Severe weather prediction and analysis at ECMWF - recent developments and future challenges
Timothy Hewson1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS165.02 - Ensemble storm surge forecasting in the UK during the exceptional 2013/14 winter storm season
Helen Titley1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK


11:20 SCI-PS165.03 - Towards improving the predictability of atmospheric rivers impacting coastal British Columbia
Bradley Snyder1, Ruping Mo1, Alex Cannon2, Greg West3, Ronald Frenette4, 1Environment Canada, Vancouver, Canada, 2Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria,Canada, 3University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 4Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS165.04 - Nowcasting (with MAPLE) and stationary precipitation patterns associated with large lakes and mountains
Lisa Alexander1, Peter Taylor1, Iain Russell2, Majid Fekri2, 1York University, Toronto, Canada, 2Pelmorex Canada Inc., Oakville, Canada


SCI-PS166 - 13:30 - 15:00
NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects
Chair: Peter Steinle

SCI-PS166.01 - The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS: From development to applications
Susanne Theis1, Christoph Gebhardt1, Michael Buchhold1, 1DWD, Offenbach, Germany

SCI-PS166.02 - Perfomance of the WWRP project FROST-2014 forecasting systems: Preliminary assessments
Dmitry Kiktev1, Elena Astakhova1, Anatoly Muravyev1, Michael Tsyrulnikov1, 1Hydrometcentre of Russia, Moscow, Russia

SCI-PS166.03 - The prediction of extratropical storm tracks in East Asia by the NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems
Wen Jiang1, HuiLing Yuan0, GuangPing Lou3, 1School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, 2Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing, China, 3Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA

SCI-PS166.04 - Overview of the marine environmental observation, prediction and response network
Keith Thompson1, 1Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada

SCI-PS167 - 13:30 - 15:00
ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools
Chair: Andrew Lorenc

SCI-PS167.01 - Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations: applications for proactive quality control
Eugenia Kalnay1, Daisuke Hottac2,3, Yoichiro Ota4,3, Guo-Yuan Lien1, Takemasa Miyoshi1,5, 1AOSC, University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 2AMSC, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, USA, 3Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 4NCEP,
NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA, 5RIKEN Advanced Institute for Commutational Science, Kobe, Japan

SCI-PS167.02 - Estimating observation impact in a convective-scale localized ensemble transform Kalman filter
Matthias Sommer1, Martin Weissmann1, 1HErZ, München, Germany

SCI-PS167.03 - Evaluation of observation impact and observation error covariance retuning
Cristina Lupu1, Carla Cardinali1, Anthony P. McNally1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

SCI-PS167.04 - Estimation of forecast sensitivity to observations within KIAPS-LETKF data assimilation system
Ji-Sun Kang1, Byoung-Joo Jung1, Youngsoon Jo1, Yoichiro Ota2, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, 2Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

SCI-PS168 - 13:30 - 15:00
ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.
Chair: Anne Hirsikko

SCI-PS168.01 - The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for total lightning
Steven Goodman1, Richard Blakeslee2, William Koshak2, Dennis Buechler3, Lawrence Carey3, Douglas Mach4, Monte Bateman4, Harold Peterson4, Eugene McCaul4, Scott Rudlosky5, 1NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, USA, 2NASA George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, USA, 3The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, USA, 4Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, USA, 5NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, USA (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS168.02 - The front range observational network testbed
J.C. Hubbert1, P. Kennedy2, W-C Lee1, S. Rutledge2, T. Weckwerth1, V. Chandrasekar2, E. Loew1, M. Dixon1, 1National Center For Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 2Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, USA (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS168.03 - A new multi-station technique for lightning radiation source location
Zhou Kanghui1, Dong Wansheng2, 1National Meteorological Center,Beijing, China, 2Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing, China

SCI-PS168.04 - The July 2013 Toronto flooding event: What can we learn from crowdsourced smartphone data?
Kent Moore1, Jacob Sheehy2, Philippe Jones2, 1University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 2Cumulonimbus, Toronto, Canada

SCI-PS169 - 13:30 - 15:00
S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Chair: Duane Waliser


SCI-PS169.01 - The Forecast Skill Horizon
Roberto Buizza1, Martin Leutbecher1, Franco Molteni1, Alan Thorpe1, Frederic Vitart1, 1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

SCI-PS169.02 - Seamless precipitation prediction skill in a global model: Actual versus potential predictability
Matthew Wheeler1, Hongyan Zhu1, Adam Sobel2, Debra Hudson1, 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia, 2Columbia University, New York, USA

SCI-PS169.03 - Subseasonal variability of North American wintertime surface air temperature
Hai Lin1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS169.04 - Improving understanding and predictions of extreme events: The Climate-Weather Connection
Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Arun Kumar2, Jon Eischeid1,3, Judith Perlwitz1,3, Xiao-Wei Quan1,3, George Kiladis1, 1NOAA ESRL/PSD, Boulder, USA, 2NOAA NWS/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, USA, 3University of Colorado CIRES, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS170 - 13:30 - 15:00
P&P - Continental convective systems
Chair: Luciano Vidal

SCI-PS170.01 - Interactions between continental convection and mesoscale circulations across model resolutions
Cathy Hohenegger1, Linda Schlemmer1, Levi Silvers1, Bjorn Stevens1, 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

SCI-PS170.02 - Predictability of convective precipitation: Convection- permitting ensemble simulations for West Africa
Vera Maurer1, Norbert Kalthoff1, Leonhard Gantner1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

SCI-PS170.03 - A study on the heavy-rain-producing Mesoscale Convective System associated with diurnal variation and topography
Yuchun Zhao1, 1Institue of Heavy Rain, Wuhan, China

SCI-PS170.04 - Northern Rocky Mountains as the origin for northwest flow severe weather outbreaks
S.-Y. Wang1, 1USU, Logan, USA (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS171 - 13:30 - 15:00
P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions
Chair: Stan Benjamin

SCI-PS171.01 - Gravity waves in moist baroclinic jet-front systems
Junhong Wei1, Fuqing Zhang1, 1Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA

SCI-PS171.02 - Does mesoscale instability control sting jet variability?
Neil Hart1, Suzanne Gray1, Peter Clark1, 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

SCI-PS171.03 - Multi-scale Met Office unified model simulations of a mesoscale convective system in north-western Europe
Samantha Clarke1, Suzanne Gray1, Nigel Roberts2, 1University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK, 2Met Office@Reading, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK


SCI-PS171.04 - Analyses and thinking on the extremes of torrential rain on July 21, 2012 in Beijing
Yun Chen1, Jun Sun1, Jun Xu1, Shunan Yang1, Zhiping Zong1, Jie Sheng1, Chong Fang1, 1National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA, Beijing, China

SCI-PS172 - 13:30 - 15:00
P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE
Chair: Kirstin Kober

SCI-PS172.01 - Strategic goals for NWP Centres: minimising RMS error or maximising forecast reliability?
Tim Palmer1, 1University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

SCI-PS172.02 - Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrisations: Impact on the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
Antje Weisheimer1,2, Susanna Corti3,2, Tim Palmer1,2, Frederic Vitart2, 1University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK, 3ISAC CNR, Bologna, Italy (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS172.03 - The MJO in a coarse-resolution GCM with a stochastic multicloud parameterization
Qiang Deng1, Boualem Khouider2, Andrew Majda1,3, 1Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada, 3Department of Mathematics and Center for Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences, Courant Institute for Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, USA

SCI-PS172.04 - Stochastic Physics Developments for the Met Office ensemble prediction system
Richard Swinbank1, Warren Tennant1, Anne McCabe1, Claudio Sanchez1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS173 - 13:30 - 15:00
ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents
Chair: Roger Saunders

SCI-PS173.01 - Observation leverage in the analysis and subsequent forecast impact
Carla Cardinali1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK

SCI-PS173.02 - Impact of geostationary satellite data on Superstorm Sandy forecast
Tong Zhu1,2, Sid Boukabara2, 1CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, USA, 2NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/JCSDA, College Park, USA

SCI-PS173.03 - Assimilation of dropsondes observations to improve forecasts of convection with WRF/DART
Glen Romine1, Ryan Torn2, Chris Snyder1, Jeffery Anderson1, 1NCAR, Boulder, USA, 2SUNY Albany, Albany, USA

SCI-PS173.04 - Assimilation of visible and near-infrared satellite observations in KENDA-COSMO
Leonhard Scheck1, Tobias Necker1, Pascal Frerebeau1, Bernhard Mayer1, Martin Weissmann1, 1Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany


SCI-PS174 - 13:30 - 15:00
WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process
Chair: Ping-wah Li

SCI-PS174.01 - The future of forecaster decision making: Is it automation or human-computer interdependence?
Robert Hoffmann1, 1Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, Pensecola, USA (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS174.02 - iCAST: A severe thunderstorm prediction and alerting prototype focused on optimization of the human-machine mix
David Sills1, Norbert Driedger1, Brian Greaves1, Emma Hung1, Dominique Brunet1, Robert Paterson1, William Burrows1, Helen Yang2, Neil Taylor2, 1Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada, Canada, 2Meteorological
Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Canada

SCI-PS174.03 - Integrated nowcasting system
Claude Landry1, Marc Verville1, Linh Chi Nguyen1, Donald Talbot1, Louise Faust1, Jean-François Deschenes1, 1Canadian Meteorological Center, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS174.04 - Interactive 3D ensemble visualization for weather forecasting
Marc Rautenhaus1, Christian M. Grams2, Andreas Schäfler3, Rüdiger Westermann1, 1Computer Graphics and Visualization Group, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 3Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

UAS-PS320 - 13:30 - 15:00
Estimating the social and economic value of weather, water, and climate information
Chair: Adriaan Perrels

UAS-PS320.01 - The marginal value of weather warning systems
Benjamin Miller1, 1University of California, San Diego, USA

UAS-PS320.02 - Benefits of improved weather information in Mozambique
Jeffrey Lazo1, Louise Croneborg2, Marcus Wishart2, Eric Foster-Moore2, Chisomo Chilemba3, 1NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA, 2The World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 3Top Marketing, Maputo, Mozambique

UAS-PS320.03 - The role of weather and climate service innovation in adaptation to climate change
Atte Harjanne1, Adriaan Perrels1, Väinö Nurmi1, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola1, 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland


UAS-PS320.04 - Searching for the ideal wind power forecast
Markus Dabernig1, Jakob W. Messner1, Georg J. Mayr1, 1University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

UAS-PS321- 13:30 - 15:00
Special Session on the future of the weather enterprise
Chair: Jean Andrey

UAS-PS321.01 - The evolving role of the forecaster at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
Wallace Hogsett1, David Novak1, Keith Brill1, Dan Petersen1, 1NOAA Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD, USA

UAS-PS321.02 - Implementing the global framework for climate services in Canada: A national effort to assess capacity
Jamie Smith1, 1Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario

UAS-PS321.03 - The UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP
James Kinter1, Frederick Carr2, Gilbert Brunet3, 1George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA, 2University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA, 3U.K. Met Office, Exeter, U.K.

UAS-PS321.04 - Be a part of building a weather-ready nation
Christopher Strager1, Douglas Hilderbrand1, 1National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, USA

SCI-PS175 - 16:30 - 18:00
NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects
Chair: Jeanette Onvlee

SCI-PS175.01 - Regional air quality forecasting over Europe: the MACC-II ensemble system
Virginie Marecal1, Matthieu Plu1, Philippe Moinat2, 1CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France, 2CERFACS, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS175.02 - Air quality forecasting in Canada: current status, performance and future developments
Didier Davignon1, David Anselmo1, Paul-André Beaulieu1, Samuel Gilbert1, Sylvie Gravel2, Hugo Landry1, Sylvain Ménard1, Michael D. Moran3, Radenko Pavlovic1, 1Air Quality Modeling Applications Section, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

SCI-PS175.03 - NOAA's air quality predictions for the United States Ivanka
Stajner1, Pius Lee2, Roland Draxler2, Jeff McQueen3, Jianping Huang3,4, Daniel Tong2,5, Li Pan2,5, Hyun Cheol Kim2,5, Perry Shafran3,4, Sikchya Upadhayay1,6, 1NOAA National Weather Service, Office of Science and Technology, Silver
Spring, USA, 2NOAA Air Resource Laboratory, College Park, USA, 3NOAA National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, USA, 4I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Rockville, USA, 5Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 6Syneren Technologies Corporation, Arlington, USA

SCI-PS175.04 - The regional chemical transport model over northeast asia area operated by Japan Meteorological Agency
Akane Kamada1,2, Masaaki Ikegami1,2, Hiroaki Naoe1, Mizuo Kajino2, Makoto Deushi2, Takashi Maki2, 1Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

SCI-PS176 - 16:30 - 18:00
ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools
Chair: Abhishek Chatterjee

SCI-PS176.01 - Replacing localization with explicit correction of regression sampling errors in ensemble filters
Jeffrey Anderson1, 1NCAR/IMAGe, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS176.02 - New analytical methods for adaptive localization for Ensemble Methods in data assimilation.
Africa Perianez1, Hendrik Reich1, Roland Potthast1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

SCI-PS176.03 - Linear filtering of sample covariances for ensemble data assimilation: theory and applications of optimality criteria
Benjamin Menetrier1, Thibaut Montmerle1, Yann Michel1, Loïk Berre1, 1CNRM- GAME/Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS176.04 - Convergence of the Desroziers` scheme and its relation to the lagged-innovation diagnostics
Richard Ménard1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS177 - 16:30 - 18:00
WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process
Chair: Dirk Heizenreder

SCI-PS177.01 - Designing semi-automatic systems for weather warning operations
Hans-Joachim Koppert1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

SCI-PS177.02 - Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): A proposed next-generation warning concept for the U.S.
Lans Rothfusz1, Travis Smith2, Gregory Stumpf3, Christopher Karstens2, 1NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, USA, 2Univ. of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, USA, 3NOAA/National Weather Service, Norman, USA


SCI-PS177.03 - Australian NexGen forecast and warning system
Gary Weymouth1, Michael Foley1, Philip Riley1, Timothy Hume1, Tennessee Leeuwenburg1, John Bally1, Beth Ebert2, 1Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, Australia

SCI-PS177.04 - Automated weather warning proposals based on post- processed numerical weather forecasts
Guido Schroeder1, Bernhard Reichert1, Dirk Heizenreder1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

SCI-PS178 - 16:30 - 18:00
ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.
Chair: Chris Velden

SCI-PS178.01 - Chinese contributions to the space-based GOS: Fengyun meteorological satellites and their application to NWP
Peng Zhang1, 1National Satellite Meteorological Center/CMA, Beijing, China (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS178.02 - Continuity and Innovation provided by EUMETSAT’s New Satellite Programmes
Johannes Schmetz1, Rolf Stuhlmann1, Peter Schlüssel1, Dieter Klaes1, Rosemary Munro1, Marianne König1, Kenneth Holmlund1, Joerg Schulz1, Marc Cohen1, Sergio Rota1, 1EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS178.03 - Arctic weather every 10 minutes: Exelis’ ABI on PCW
Paul Griffith1, Susan Wirth1, 1Exelis Geospatial Systems, Fort Wayne, IN, USA

SCI-PS178.04 - Research and development on satellite radiance assimilation at the Canadian Meteorological Center
Louis Garand1, Sylvain Heilliette1, Stephen Macpherson1, Mark Buehner1, Alain Beaulne1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS179- 16:30 - 18:00
ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models
Chair: Carla Cardinali

SCI-PS179.01 - Towards the assimilation of near-surface winds: Development of a geo-statistical observation operator
Joël Bédard1, Stéphane Laroche2, Pierre Gauthier1, 1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, UQAM, Montreal, Canada, 2Data Assimilation and Satellite Meteorology Section, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS179.02 - Assimilation of satellite cloud-information at the convective scale in an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Annika Schomburg1, Christoph Schraff1, Stefan Declair1, Africa Perianez1, Roland Potthast1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany


SCI-PS179.03 - Applying GSI 3DVAR-Ensemble Hybrid Data Assimilation System for rapid refresh with regional ensembles
Ming Hu1,2, David Dowell2, Steve Weygandt2, Stan Benjamin2, Jeff Whitaker3, Curtis Alxander1,2, 1CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB, Boulder, USA, 2NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB, Boulder, USA, 3NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS179.04 - Using data assimilation to explore precipitation - cloud system - environment interactions
Derek Posselt1, 1University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA

SCI-PS180 - 16:30 - 18:00
P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and
lower latitude interactions
Chair: Thomas Spengler

SCI-PS180.01 - Wildfires over Southeastern Australia and their links to midlatitude Rossby Wave breaking and tropical convection
Michael Reeder1, Thomas Spengler2, 1Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 2University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway (exceed size limit)

SCI-PS180.02 - Experiments with the FIM global model for blocking at seasonal to medium-range
Stan Benjamin1, Shan Sun1, Rainer Bleck1, Georg Grell1, John Brown1, Randall Dole1, Judith Perlwitz1, 1NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS180.03 - Mediterranean moisture supply during an extreme precipitation event in the north-western Mediterranean
Jana Campa1, Franziska Scholder-Aemisegger2, 1IMK KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

SCI-PS180.04 - Model studies of heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean during the HyMeX campaign (2012)
Luisa Röhner1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany


SCI-PS181 - 16:30 - 18:00
P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE
Chair: Tom Hamill

SCI-PS181.01 - Physically-based stochastic parameterisation
George C. Craig1, 1Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany

SCI-PS181.02 - Impact on convective initiation of a stochastic boundary layer parameterisation
Kirstin Kober1, George C. Craig1, 1Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany

SCI-PS181.03 - An investigation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty in Global Model Forecasts
Istvan Szunyogh1, Michael Herrera1, Gyorgyi Gyarmati1, Joseph Tribbia2, 1Texas A&M University, College Station, USA, 2NCAR, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS181.04 - Initial ensemble perturbations provided by convective-scale ensemble data assimilation
Florian Harnisch1, Christian Keil2, 1Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Data Assimilation Branch, LMU München, Germany, 2Meteorologisches Institut, LMU München, Germany

SCI-PS182 - 16:30 - 18:00
NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada


SCI-PS182.01 - New climate modes and their predictability
Toshio Yamagata1, 1Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan (exceeds size limit)

SCI-PS182.02 - Understanding the role of the Maritime Continent in the global weather-climate continuum: YMC
Kunio Yoneyama1, Chidong Zhang2, Charles Long3, Jean-Philippe Duvel4, Noer Hayati5, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan, 2University of Miami, Miami, USA, 3Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA, 4Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France, 5Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency, Jakarta,
Indonesia

17:20 SCI-PS182.03 - Intraseasonal variations in west Africa and east Pacific easterly wave energy budgets
Ghassan Alaka1, Adam Rydbeck1, Eric Maloney1, 1Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA

SCI-PS182.04 - Numerical examination of tropical disturbances using the high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model NICAM
Masaki Satoh1, 1Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

SCI-PS183 - 16:30 - 18:00
S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Chair: Cristiana Stan

SCI-PS183.01 - Seasonal climate prediction in a climate services context
Francisco Doblas-Reyes1,2, Muhammad Asif2, Lauriane Batté3, Melanie Davis2, Javier García-Serrano4, Nube González Reviriego2, Virginie Guemas2,3, Fabian Lienert2, Luis Rodrigues2, Verónica Torralba2, 1Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain, 2Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain, 3Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 4Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France

SCI-PS183.02 - Soil moisture forecasts potential to predict rain anomalies over land-atmosphere “hot spots” in South America
Pablo Spennemann1, Celeste Saulo0, 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina

SCI-PS183.03 - Improvement of climate simulations: an ENSO example
Jong-Seong Kug1, Yoo-Geun Ham2, 1POSTECH, Pohang, Korea, 2Chonnam University, Gwangju, South Korea

SCI-PS183.04 - Toward probabilistic seasonal prediction
Nir Krakauer1, Hannah Aizenman1, Michael Grossberg1, Irina Gladkova1, 1City College of New York, New York, USA

Communication and facilitate and support decision making
Chair: Claude Masse

UAS-PS323.01 - How does introducing nowcasting tools in weather warnings help civil protection agents?
Thorsten Ulbrich1, Martin Goeber2, 1Freie Universität Berlin, Hans Ertel Cetre for Weather Research (HErZ), Berlin, Germany, 2Deutscher Wertterdienst (DWD)

UAS-PS323.02 - Improving Canadian climate and water data dissemination
Miguel Tremblay1, 1Environment Canada, Montréal, Canada

UAS-PS323.03 - Vanishing Points(TM) in South Louisiana: future implications of a community-based mobile application on climate adaptation
Sandra Maina1,2, Pallab Mozumder1, 1Florida International University, Miami, USA, 2SOARS/UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

UAS-PS323.04 - How to communicate weather forecasts on web services: Yr, a Norwegian example
Jørn Kristiansen2, Ingrid Støver Jensen1, Morten Køltzow2, Bjørn Kristian Larsen2, Jan Ivar Pladsen2, John Smits2, 1NRK, Oslo, Norway, 2The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

 




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