3.1    Expert Team on Research Needs for Intraseasonal, Seasonal and Interannual Prediction, including the Application of these Predictions


3.1.1  Members of ET 3.1


Jean-Pierre Ceron



Subramaniam Moten



Paulo Nobre



Wassila Thaiw



Cherif Diop



Yun Wan-tae



Jim Renwick

New Zealand


Ose Tomoaki



3.1.2 Terms of Reference for ET 3.1

Note that in the General Summary Text of the proceedings of the fourteenth session of the Commission for Climatology (3-10 November 2005, Beijing China) it is noted (item 11.2.6(g)) that the Terms of Reference are broad, long-term goals that constitute a framework to guide the work of the Expert Team (ET), and that each ET will set workplans with Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-bound (SMART) goals consistent with that framework (see 4.1.3 below)


(a)     To appraise and report on current intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual prediction systems, and their ability to meet the requirements of specific applications areas, and to provide an assessment of the likely capabilities achievable by the years 2010 and 2015;

(b)     To produce a critical review of the methodologies for the creation and the presentation to users of intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual products, including consensus methodology and downscaling, and to recommend improvements to the methods used;

(c)     To look at the relative value of dynamical downscaling methods against empirical methods;

(d)     To promote the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) as applications tool (this tool can downscale empirically large-scale forecast fields to specific sites for climate and applications forecasting);

(e)     To make recommendations on research and development activities needed in the areas of forecast systems, presentation of products, applications and to support user decision processes (this includes marine, atmospheric and terrestrial data provision);

(f)      To coordinate research needs with WCRP;

(g)     To incorporate the WMO cross-cutting themes (on Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Space/GEO and Least Developed Countries) into planning and activities of the ET, and to collaborate as needed with experts (across all related disciplines) in other CCl ETs, members of other WMO Technical Commissions, and in relevant external Organizations;

(h)     To explore, document and make recommendations for addressing the needs for capacity building in each region, pertinent to this topic;

(i)      To submit reports in accordance with timetables established by the OPAG chair and/or Management Group.