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CBS/CCL EXPERT TEAM ON OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS FROM SUB-SEASONAL TO LONG TIME-SCALES

 

EXETER, UK, 10-14 MARCH 2014

 

DOCUMENTATION PLAN

17-mar-14

 

LOCAL INFO NOTE FOR PARTICIPANTS

Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Predicitons 16th session
UK Met Office, Exeter, 10-12 March 2014

AGENDA

Monday 10 March 2014
Joint session with the CBS/CCL Expert Team on Operational Prediction from Sub-seasonal to Long Time-Scales (ET-OPSLS)

 

Agenda Item

AGENDA ITEMS

Subject

 

Doc No.

Submitted by

Expected/Received

1

OPENING OF THE MEETING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING

 

 

 

2.1

Provisional Agenda

2.1(1) REV

Secretariat

20.II.2014

 

Explanatory memorandum to the provisional agenda

2.1(2)

Secretariat

26.II.2014

2.2

Working arrangements

 

 

 

 

Tentative work plan

     

 

Provisional List of Participants

INF. 2

Secretariat

 

 

Template for the cover page of Working Documents

 

Secretariat

 

 

 Report of previous meeting (ET-ELRF):

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Final-Report-ET-ELRF-March2012.pdf

 

 

 

3

INTRODUCTION

 

 

 

3.1

Review of WMO CBS and CCl decisions and developments relevant to ET-OPSLS

- CBS/DPFS

- CCl

Task Teams of ET-OPSLS   New!

Conclusions & recommendations of GPC/RCC Workshop



3.1(1)

3.1(2)

3.1(3)

3.1(4)

Secretariat

 

3.2

Status of the GPC network – new applications for designation

3.2

 

 

3.3

Revision of the Manual on the GDPFS

current working version (zip)

3.3

Secretariat

 

4

STATUS REPORTS FROM GPCs

 

 

 

4.1

GPC compliance (template)

System Specs Update (2014, from 2012)

GPC Melbourne

GPC Toulouse

GPC ECMWF

GPC CPTEC Brasilia

GPC Tokyo

GPC Exeter

GPC Beijing

GPC Montreal

GPC Washington

GPC Seoul

GPC Pretoria

4.1

GPC's

03.III.2014

28.II.2014

4.2

Discussion of GPC reports on systems development and other activities

4.2

 

 

4.3

Observational requirements for GPCs

Statement of Guidance for Seasonal and Inter-Annual (SIAF)

 

4.3

L.Ferranti

 

5

LIAISON/COLLABORATION WITH WGSIP (joint session with WGSIP-16)

 

 

 

5.x

 to be proposed or determined

5.x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

STATUS REPORTS: LEAD CENTRES AND GLOBAL SEASONAL CLIMATE UPDATE

 

 

 

6.1

Discussion of LC-LRFMME report on status and developments

6.1

S.Park

 

6.2

Discussion of LC-SVSLRF report on status and developments

6.2

D.Jones

 

6.3

Discussion of Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU): forecasts and verification

GSCU 2013DJF

6.3

R.Graham

 

7

REVIEW OF WORK DONE BY TASK TEAMS ON ET-OPSLS PRIORITY AREAS

 

 

 

7.1 
 Task Team 1: GPC/RCC Brasilia
  Workshop (25-27 Nov. 2013, Report of Workshop) :

- improved availability of hindcasts; new mandatory and highly recommened products; display of longer-lead forecasts; verification products; GPC role in capacity development; development of technical manuals on GPC/LCs outputs; enhancing dialogue between GPCs and RCCs.

Current capability and support of GPCs for post-processing GPC outputs

Climate Indicies relevant to monitoring /forecasting at seasonal scales

Discussion paper on improving availability and access to GPC data for RCCs and NMHSs

RCC Questionnaire : Synthesis of responses collected prior to GPC/RCC workshop

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.1(1)


7.1(2)


7.1(3)



7.1(4)

 

 

 

 

 

 


Y.Takaya


J.-P. Ceron &  R. Graham

R. Graham


C.Coelho

 

 

7.2

Task Team 2: Verification:

-Recommendations of TT2 scoping of options for revised verification exchange; hindcast verification; real-time forecast verification; plans for TT2

Develop revised strategies for verification exchange, including for Lead Centre - Long-ROnge Forecast Multi-Model Ensembles (LC-LRFMME) multi-model products, and real-time verification and support to Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)

7.2

 

 

 


7.2(1)

 

 

 

 


A.Kumar, B.Denis, S.Mason

 

7.3

Task Team 3: Sub-Seasonal Forecasts:

-Status of the WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP S2S research project; recommendations of TT3 on Scoping Implementation of real-time sub-seasonal forecasts; plans for TT3

Review of work done by task team on ET-OPSLS prioritiy areas

7.3

 

 

 

 


7.3(1)

 

 

 

 

 


S.Park, R.Graham, A.Kumar

 

7.4

Task Team 4: Multi-Annual to Decadal Forecasts:

- Met Office hosted pilot exchange of decadal forecasts; recommendations of TT4: scoping implementation of longer-than-seasonal forecasts; plans for TT4

Recommendations on operational provision of interannual-to-decadal (near-term climate) predictions

7.4

 

 

 

 


7.4(1)

 

 

 

 

 


R. Graham

 

8

 

REVISION OF GPC DESIGNATION CRITERIA AND MINIMUM PRODUCTS

 

 

 

8.1

Review of the Manual on the GDPFS in light of recommendations from the GPC/RCC Brasilia workshop

8.1

R. Graham

 

8.2

New mandatory and highly recommended products

8.2

 

 

9

REVIEW OF THE ET-OPSLS TERMS OF REFERENCE

Terms of Reference

3.1(1)

Secretariat

27.II.2014

10

ANY OTHER BUSINESS (AOB)

 

 

 

11

CLOSING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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