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ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM PRODUCTS
Short-range
Medium-range
Long-range
Short-range (back to top)
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Canada |
Short-range Canadian (CMC) ensembles include
ensemble forecasts, 10-day mean temperature anomaly, spaghetti plots, calibrated
probability of equivalent precipitation, accumulated quantity of precipitation, sea level
pressure centres, GZ 500 maps and ensemble spread of trial fields. These are all located
at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html
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USA |
The NCEP Short-range ensemble forecasts (SREF)
suite contains: (1) ensemble mean and spread charts, (2) spaghetti charts, (3) probability
charts, (4) meteograms (to be done), and (5) clustering (to be done). Visit the site at: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html |
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USA |
The NCEP SREF ensembles can also be viewed via
a nice GUI at Penn State University at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html |
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USA |
FNMOC ensemble displays are currently
available for gale probability, precipitation probability, 500 hPa single contour
probabilities and upper level winds. These are at http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/efs.html.
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USA |
In addition FNMOC EPS long-range support page
with displays of 500 hPa standard deviation, 500 hPa spaghetti diagrams, 2 metre
temperature and 1000/500 hPa thickness. See these at http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/nlmoc_support.html |
Medium-range (back to top)
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Canada |
Canadian (CMC) ensembles extend from day=0 to
day=10, and thus extend into the range of medium range products. Currently available are
10-day mean temperature anomaly, spaghetti plots, calibrated probability of equivalent
precipitation, accumulated quantity of precipitation, sea level pressure centres, GZ 500
maps and ensemble spread of trial fields. These are located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html
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ECMWF |
The ECMWF EPS provides forecasters with a set
of 51 possible future scenarios, which can be combined into an average forecast (the
ensemble-mean) or into a small number of alternative forecasts. See http://wms.ecmwf.int/index_eps.html. Note:
the charts are password protected for ECMWF Members only. |
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Japan |
Japan Meteorological Agency runs a
medium-range EPS out to 216 hours based on an ensemble size of 51 members. For more information see
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/nwp/nwp-top.htm |
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South Africa |
South Africa produce a 14-day ensemble
forecast of sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights and spaghetti diagram of the
5800 gpm contour: http://www.weathersa.co.za/nwp/derf.html |
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USA |
The NCEP Medium Range Ensemble Forecast (MREF)
products include probabilistic precipitation, relative measure of predictability, ensemble
mean and ensemble spread plots. There is also a good reference and documentation section.
The site is located at http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/enshome.html
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USA |
NCEP MREP ensembles can also be viewed at the
Penn State University site located at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu |
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USA |
The FNMOC EPS long-range support page with
displays of 500 hPa standard deviation, 500 hPa spaghetti diagrams, 2 metre temperature
and 100/500 hPa thickness. See these at http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/nlmoc_support.html |
Long-range (back to top)
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Brazil |
A restricted access page of seasonal products
is available at http://www.cptec.inpe.br/products/clima/prodclii.html |
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Canada |
Monthly temperature and seasonal forecasts of
precipitation, temperature, SST anomalies, snow and ice, together with extensive
verification and skill outputs, are available at http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.htm Seasonal verification results in accordance with the current edition
of the Standardized Verification System for
Long-Range Forecasts (Sept 2002) can be found at:
http://www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/~cmcdev/saisons/lrfsvs/lrfsvs_results.html.
Results are provided by level one and level two of the SVS-LRF, including a few other
parameters. Access to the site is restricted, please contact Richard Verret (richard.verret@ec.gc.ca) to apply for access or
to submit your comments. |
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ECMWF |
A very interesting European initiative, with
the objective of the project is to develop a well-validated European coupled multi-model
ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to interannual prediction.
Also contains a
very good list of EPS links. http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter |
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Japan |
Japan Meteorological Agency runs
an extended-range EPS out to 34 days based on an ensemble
size of 50 members. For more information see
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/outline/index.html |
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Korea |
Numerous medium-range products, such as
ensemble mean, standard deviation and spaghetti plots have been developed for internal use
of KMA forecasters. Basic products from the EPS runs are to be available on the KMA
website shortly: http://www.kma.go.kr/ema/eindex.htm |
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UK |
The Met Office produces long-range forecasts
for all regions of the globe. The current products produced can be seen at http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal/index.html |
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USA |
The NWS Climate Prediction
Center is responsible for issuing seasonal climate outlook maps for one to thirteen months
into the future. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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USA/IRI |
The international Research Institute for
Climate Prediction was established as a collaboration between NOAA and Columbia
University. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast
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