Example of reporting templates
To help in the evaluation of the clarity and accuracy of the proposed
reporting templates, the following information should be taken into account:
The Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) longrange forecast (LRF)
system is twofold: two dynamical models are used at lead zero and an empirical model is
used at lead 2, 3 and 4 seasons. The dynamical component consists of a twelve member
ensemble prediction system (Derome et al., 2000) based on 6 runs of a General Circulation
Model (GCM) (McFarlane et al., 1992) and six runs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
model (Ritchie, 1991). The empirical model is based on Canonical Correlation Analysis
(CCA) (Shabbar and Barnston, 1996). The forecast parameters are surface air temperature
anomaly (SAT) and precipitation anomaly both in three equiprobable categories (below,
near and above normal).
In the examples below, results are presented for lead zero SAT over
Canada in Summer (JuneJulyAugust) based on dynamical model outputs. The dynamical model
outputs were combined using a simple arithmetic average. The verification data set comes
from the station observation of Vincent and Gullett (1999).
Additionnally, results for the probabilistic geopotential height
anomaly at 500 hPa are presented to demonstrate the completion of the templates for
probabilistic forecasts. This new product is not disseminated yet by the CMC. Results are
for winter (DecemberJanuaryFebruary) over the Northern Extratropics with a zero lead.
The probabilistic forecasts are generated by counting the number of members of the
ensemble in each of the three equiprobable category. The ROC score has been computed
using Mason (1982) approach with 10% probability bins. The forecasts were compared with
the corresponding NCEP reanalyses (Kalnay et al., 1996).
References:
Derome J., G. Brunet, A. Plante, N. Gagnon, G. J. Boer, F.W. Zwiers,
S.J. Lambert, J.Sheng H.Ritchie, 2000: Seasonal Predictions Based on Two Dynamical Models.
Submitted to Atmosphere Ocean.
Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin,
M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins,
J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, Roy Jenne, and
Dennis Joseph, 1996: The NMC/NCAR 40Year Reanalysis Project". Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc., 77, 437471.
Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust.
Meteor. Mag., 30, 291303.
McFarlane, N.A., G. J. Boer, J.P. Blanchet and M. Lazare, 1992: The
Canadian Climate Centre secondgeneration circulation model and its equilibrium climate.
J. Climate, 5, 10131044.
Ritchie, H., 1991: Application of the semiLagrangian method to a
multilevel spectral primitiveequations model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 117, 91106
Shabbar, A. and A. G. Barnston, 1996: Skill of seasonal climate
forecasts in Canada using Canonical Correlation Analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 23702385.
Vincent, L.A., and D. W. Gullett, 1999: Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature
datasets for climate change analyses. International Journal of Climatology, 19,13751388.
Template used for LRF system description:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 CANADA 
Meteorological Centre: 
^{} 2 CANADIAN
METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE 
LRF system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

Description of
LongRange Forecast (LRF) System 
Status of LRF system: 
information: 
^{} 4 Yes 
dissemination: 
^{} 5 Disseminated
trough the Meteorological Service of Canada regional offices, media and Internet. 
guidance: 
^{} 6 Historical
(hindcast) percent correct map is provided with the forecast. 
Type of LRF system: 
numerical: 
^{} 7 Yes 
empirical: 
^{} 8 No 
hybrid: 
^{} 9 No 
coupled: 
^{} 10 No 
statistics: 
^{} 11 Blend
of the model 1000500 hPa thickness using an arithmetic average and forecast SAT using a
Perfect Prog simple linear regression with 1000500 hPa hPa anomaly as predictor. 
Type of forecasts: 
deterministic: 
^{} 12 Yes 
probabilistic: 
^{} 13 No 
LRF output products: 
parameter: 
^{} 14 Surface
air temperature anomaly and accumulated precipitation anomaly. 
categories: 
^{} 15 Below
(< 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation), above (>0.43 times the
interannual standard deviation) and near normal (otherwise). 
frequency: 
^{} 16 4 times
a year 
forecast
period: 
^{} 17 Season
(3 months) 
lead
time: 
^{} 18 Zero 
forecast
area: 
^{} 19 Canada 
Model description: 
^{} 20 Two
numerical models are used : 1) GCM version 2 (McFarlane et al., 1992) and 2) Global NWP
model (Ritchie, 1991). 
Model resolution: 
horizontal: 
^{21} GCM=T32
NWP=T63 
vertical: 
^{22} GCM=L10
NWP=L23 
Bias correction: 
^{} 23 No 
Ensemble forecasting: 
ensemble
size: 
^{} 24 12
members (6 for each model) 
initialisation: 
^{} 25 Initial
conditions for each run are lagged by 24 hours. 
SST specification: 
^{} 26 Anomaly
of the month prior to the start of the runs is prescribed through the 3 months forecast
period. 
SeaIce
specification: 
^{} 27
Climatology for the GCM and monthly mean of the month prior to the start of the runs is
relaxed to climatology during the first 15 days. 
Snow specification: 
^{} 28 Initial
snow line from observations. The GCM has a prognostic scheme while the NWP model uses a
prescribed 10 day snow anomaly for half of the simulation afterwards the system reverts to
climatology. 
Soil temperature: 
^{} 29
Climatology 
Soil moisture: 
^{} 30 Climatology 
Hindcast evaluation: 
hindcast
period: 
^{} 31 1969 to
1994 
crossvalidation: 
^{} 32 No 
particularities: 
^{} 33 Initial
conditions are lagged by 6 hours (instead of 24 as in the operational setup). 
Template used for exchange of verification scores for deterministic
forecasts:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 Canada 
Meteorological
Centre: 
^{} 2 Canadian
Meteorological Centre 
LRF
system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

LongRange Forecast
(LRF) verification results  deterministic forecasts 
Verified
parameter: 
^{} 4 Surface
air temperature anomaly (degree Celsius) 
Forecast
period: 
^{} 5
JuneJulyAugust 
Forecast
lead time: 
^{} 6 Zero 
Verification
area: 
^{} 7 Canada 
Verification
period: 
^{} 8 1969 to
1994 (hindcast) 
Verification
data set: 
^{} 9 Gridded
Canadian stations data (Vincent and Gullet, 1999). 
Climatology
data set: 
^{} 10 Average
of 1969 to 1994 data (both for model and observation). 
Persistence: 
^{} 11 Anomaly
of the season prior to the verified season. 

RMSforecast 
RMSpersistence 
RMSclimatology 
RMSSSpersistence 
RMSSSclimatology 
^{} 12 0.9135 
^{} 13 0.8517 
^{} 14 1.1278 
^{} 5 7.2567 
^{} 16 19.0074 

Binary
event: 
^{17} Above normal (anomaly
greater than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation) 
Contingency Table: 

observations 
forecasts 
occurrences 
nonoccurrences 
occurrences 
^{} 18 605 
^{} 19 633 
nonoccurrences 
^{} 20 542 
^{} 21 1780 
Kuipers
Score: 
^{} 22 0.630 


Template used for exchange of verification scores for
deterministic forecasts:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 Canada 
Meteorological
Centre: 
^{} 2 Canadian
Meteorological Centre 
LRF
system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

LongRange Forecast
(LRF) verification results  deterministic forecasts 
Verified
parameter: 
^{} 4 Surface
air temperature anomaly (degree Celsius). 
Forecast
period: 
^{} 5
JuneJulyAugust 
Forecast
lead time: 
^{} 6 Zero 
Verification
area: 
^{} 7 Canada 
Verification
period: 
^{} 8 1969 to
1994 (hindcast) 
Verification
data set: 
^{} 9 Gridded
Canadian stations data (Vincent and Gullet, 1999). 
Climatology
data set: 
^{} 10 Average
of 1969 to 1994 data (both for model and observation) 
Persistence: 
^{} 11 Anomaly
of the season prior to the verified season. 

RMSforecast 
RMSpersistence 
RMSclimatology 
RMSSSpersistence 
RMSSSclimatology 
^{} 12 0.9135 
^{} 13 0.8517 
^{} 14 1.1278 
^{} 5 7.2567 
^{} 16 19.0074 

Binary
event: 
^{17} Near normal (anomaly
lesser than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation and greater than 0.43 times
the interannual standard deviation) 
Contingency Table: 

observations 
forecasts 
occurrences 
nonoccurrences 
occurrences 
^{} 18 466 
^{} 19 705 
nonoccurrences 
^{} 20 758 
^{} 21 1630 
Kuipers
Score: 
^{} 22 0.518 


Template used for exchange of verification scores for
deterministic forecasts:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 Canada 
Meteorological
Centre: 
^{} 2 Canadian
Meteorological Centre 
LRF
system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

LongRange Forecast
(LRF) verification results  deterministic forecasts 
Verified
parameter: 
^{} 4 Surface
air temperature anomaly (degree Celsius) 
Forecast
period: 
^{} 5
JuneJulyAugust 
Forecast
lead time: 
^{} 6 Zero 
Verification
area: 
^{} 7 Canada 
Verification
period: 
^{} 8 1969 to
1994 (hindcast) 
Verification
data set: 
^{} 9 Gridded
Canadian stations data (Vincent and Gullet, 1999). 
Climatology
data set: 
^{} 10 Average
of 1969 to 1994 data (both for model and observation). 
Persistence: 
^{} 11 Anomaly
of the season prior to the verified season. 

RMSforecast 
RMSpersistence 
RMSclimatology 
RMSSSpersistence 
RMSSSclimatology 
^{} 12 0.9135 
^{} 13 0.8517 
^{} 14 1.1278 
^{} 5 7.2567 
^{} 16 19.0074 

Binary
event: 
^{17} Below normal (anomaly less
than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation) 
Contingency Table: 

observations 
forecasts 
occurrences 
nonoccurrences 
occurrences 
^{} 18 620 
^{} 19 531 
nonoccurrences 
^{} 20 568 
^{} 21 1840 
Kuipers
Score: 
^{} 22 0.653 


Template used for exchange of verification scores for probabilistic
forecasts:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 CANADA 
Meteorological
Centre: 
^{} 2 CANADIAN
METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE 
LRF system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

LongRange Forecast
(LRF) verification results  probabilistic forecasts 
Verified parameter: 
^{} 4
Geopotential height at 500 hPa anomaly. 
Forecast period: 
^{} 5
DecemberJanuaryFebruary 
Forecast lead time: 
^{} 6 Zero 
Verification area: 
^{} 7 Northern
ExtraTropics 
Verification
period: 
^{} 8
19691994 (hindcast) 
Verification data
set: 
^{} 9 NCEP
reanalyses 
Climatology data
set: 
^{} 10 Average
of 1969 to 1994 data (both for model and analyses). 

Binary event: 
^{} 11 Above
normal (anomaly greater than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation) 
Contingency Table: 

observations 
probability
intervals 
occurrences 
nonoccurrences 
^{12} 09% 
^{} 13 1786 
^{} 14 7021 
^{15} 1019% 
^{} 16 1832 
^{} 17 4426 
^{18} 2029% 
^{} 19 1943 
^{} 20 4406 
^{21} 3039% 
^{} 22 2026 
^{} 23 3701 
^{24} 4049% 
^{} 25 2014 
^{} 26 3196 
^{27} 5059% 
^{} 28 3222 
^{} 29 3920 
^{30} 6069% 
^{} 31 1044 
^{} 32 1195 
^{33} 7079% 
^{} 34 780 
^{} 35 651 
^{36} 8089% 
^{} 37 453 
^{} 38 294 
^{39} 90100% 
^{} 40 1234 
^{} 41 946 
ROC score: 
^{42} 0.6353 

Template used for exchange of verification scores for
probabilistic forecasts:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 CANADA 
Meteorological
Centre: 
^{} 2 CANADIAN
METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE 
LRF system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

LongRange Forecast
(LRF) verification results  probabilistic forecasts 
Verified parameter: 
^{} 4
Geopotential height at 500 hPa anomaly. 
Forecast period: 
^{} 5
DecemberJanuaryFebruary 
Forecast lead time: 
^{} 6 Zero 
Verification area: 
^{} 7 Northern
ExtraTropics 
Verification
period: 
^{} 8
19691994 (hindcast) 
Verification data
set: 
^{} 9 NCEP
reanalyses 
Climatology data
set: 
^{} 10 Average
of 1969 to 1994 data (both for model and analyses). 

Binary event: 
^{} 11 Near
normal (anomaly lesser than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation and greater
than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation) 
Contingency Table: 

observations 
probability
intervals 
occurrences 
nonoccurrences 
^{12} 09% 
^{} 13 860 
^{} 14 2206 
^{15} 1019% 
^{} 16 1669 
^{} 17 3867 
^{18} 2029% 
^{} 19 2660 
^{} 20 6071 
^{21} 3039% 
^{} 22 3134 
^{} 23 6981 
^{24} 4049% 
^{} 25 2656 
^{} 26 5713 
^{27} 5059% 
^{} 28 2558 
^{} 29 5107 
^{30} 6069% 
^{} 31 241 
^{} 32 535 
^{33} 7079% 
^{} 34 60 
^{} 35 156 
^{36} 8089% 
^{} 37 7 
^{} 38 24 
^{39} 90100% 
^{} 40 67 
^{} 41 180 
ROC score: 
^{42} 0.5111 

Template used for exchange of verification scores for
probabilistic forecasts:
Identification 
Country: 
^{} 1 CANADA 
Meteorological
Centre: 
^{} 2 CANADIAN
METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE 
LRF system identification: 
^{} 3 CMCDYN 

LongRange Forecast
(LRF) verification results  probabilistic forecasts 
Verified parameter: 
^{} 4
Geopotential height at 500 hPa anomaly. 
Forecast period: 
^{} 5
DecemberJanuaryFebruary 
Forecast lead time: 
^{} 6 Zero 
Verification area: 
^{} 7 Northern
ExtraTropics 
Verification
period: 
^{} 8
19691994 (hindcast) 
Verification data
set: 
^{} 9 NCEP
reanalyses 
Climatology data
set: 
^{} 10 Average
of 1969 to 1994 data (both for model and analyses). 

Binary event: 
^{} 11 Below
normal (anomaly less than 0.43 times the interannual standard deviation) 
Contingency Table: 

observations 
probability
intervals 
occurrences 
nonoccurrences 
^{12} 09% 
^{} 13 1416 
^{} 14 6977 
^{15} 1019% 
^{} 16 1690 
^{} 17 4660 
^{18} 2029% 
^{} 19 1968 
^{} 20 4319 
^{21} 3039% 
^{} 22 1943 
^{} 23 3649 
^{24} 4049% 
^{} 25 2043 
^{} 26 3014 
^{27} 5059% 
^{} 28 3547 
^{} 29 4563 
^{30} 6069% 
^{} 31 1101 
^{} 32 1128 
^{33} 7079% 
^{} 34 817 
^{} 35 555 
^{36} 8089% 
^{} 37 409 
^{} 38 331 
^{39} 90100% 
^{} 40 1226 
^{} 41 887 
ROC score: 
^{42} 0.6542 

