INITIAL PLANNING MEETING ON THE COORDINATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS FOR SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
Geneva, Switzerland, 28-30 April 1999
1.2 Mr Jarraud welcomed the participants to Geneva and to the new WMO Secretariat building. He recalled the decisions of twelfth Congress on the inclusion of CLIPS in the WMO Long-term Plan and in the Programme and Budget as one of the projects in the World Climate Applications Programme. Mr Jarraud outlined the CLIPS and the GDPS and Forecasting System objectives as given in the fourth and fifth long-term and indicated the implementation achievements of the programmes. The CLIPS Office was established in 1997 and its projects have been implemented through training activities and provision of technical assistance in capacity building to Members and some developing centres. Other major activities involve synthesis and delivery of forecasts generated by major GDPS and emerging centres based on predictions of recent strong ENSO events, organization of workshop like regional/sub-regional climate outlook fora bringing climate researchers dealing with climate information and prediction and specialists in climate services together to jointly develop a consensus climate outlook for the region/sub-region. The Global Data Processing System and Forecasting System programme has on the other hand among its achievements, update and adjustment of regulatory provisions in the Manual on the GDPS, enhancement of operational generation and provision of GDPS products required by Members for their day to day services to cover environmental monitoring and prediction of climate variations and long-range forecasts up to seasons. Several centres in the GDPS and forecasting system infrastructure of a network of 3 WMCs, 35 RSMCs and emerging centres have implemented these agreed GDPS and forecasting system responsibilities and functions on an operational nature and provide their long-range forecasts up to seasons mainly on Web Sites with or without password protection.
1.3 Mr Jarraud noted that recent discussions in Technical Commissions had raised the need for coordination of infrastructure needs for Seasonal to Interannual (SI) climate prediction. Following the proposal of the president of CBS, in consultation with the presidents of CCl and CAS, the initial planning meeting had the task of developing relevant possible approaches and options to address the issues, building on the WWW Basic Systems infrastructure, using the WCP/CLIPS project in a way that complements and extends the activities of the WWW Basic Systems and building the application component of the SI climate prediction services. He conveyed his wishes to the participants for a successful meeting.
1.4 21 participants from major GDPS/emerging centres/research institutes and one university, representing 14 WMO Members attended the meeting. A list of participants is given in Annex I to this report.
2. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING (agenda item 2)
2.1 Election of the Chairman (agenda item 2.1)
2.1.1 Dr Douglas Gauntlett (Australia) was unanimously elected chair of the meeting.
2.2 Adoption of the agenda (agenda item 2.2)
2.2.1 The adopted agenda is given in Annex II to this report.
2.3 Working arrangements (agenda item 2.3)
2.3.1 The meeting agreed on its working hours, mechanism and work schedule.
3. INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE OPERATIONAL GENERATION OF THE PRODUCTS (agenda item 3)
3.1 The meeting, before proceeding with the detailed analysis and making proposals for the development of operational infrastructure components, agreed on the following guiding principles:
The operational framework should:
Be structured and function so that the NMHSs play a central role in the flow of information and in the dissemination of monitoring and prediction products. But this role should not be exclusive or restrictive since other relevant national organizations need to be included where they have a statutory or authoritative role in the observing, analysis, and prediction and/or application activities. The potential for the NMHSs to provide the technical and scientific support to the user communities must be harnessed in order to provide the highest quality SI services in each country.
Allow for and contribute to an active and continuing SI research activity (observing technologies, modeling and prediction, and applications).
Ensure access to information by all NHMSs on a non-discriminatory basis and be constructed within the guidelines laid out in WMO Resolution 40.
Utilize where possible the WMO/WWW Basic Systems- GOS, GTS and GDPS- and require that the WMO/WWW Basic Systems accommodate the requirements of the SI monitoring, prediction and application components.
Utilize the WMO/WCP/ CLIPS project in a way that complements and extends the activities of the WMO Basic Systems and builds the application component of the SI services.
Apply to general climate anomaly identification and prediction (i.e. not limited to El Nino/ La Nina cases for example).
Facilitate the acquisition and exchange of data and information required by the WCP/WCDMP, CLIPS, GCOS etc.
Facilitate the partnership building among the Constituent Bodies and Programs of WMO and among cooperating agencies (e.g. ICSU, FAO, WHO, UNEP, UNDP etc.)
Make provisions to ensure that adequate documentation and guidance information accompanies the SI products so that users may understand, interpret, and effectively use them within the confidence levels attached to the products.
Allow for the dissemination of SI products through all appropriate telecommunication means including WWW/GTS, satellite broadcasts, the Internet etc. The framework should specify the required standards (formats, data representation specifications, meta-data requirements etc.) that providers must follow.
Make provision for users to provide feed back to researchers and providers on product quality, distribution, etc.
3.2 The meeting took note of the official WMO definitions of meteorological forecasting ranges given in Appendix I-4 to the Manual on the GDPS. The SI activity covered here considers activities categorised as "Long-range Forecasting"; however, within that range further categories are defined separating the products based solely on objective numerical prediction and statistical analysis and those forecast and outlook products based at least partially on subjective analysis.
3.3 Requirements Overview
3.3.1 The meeting noted that, the SI climate services (monitoring and diagnostics, prediction and applications) are unique in many ways as compared to weather forecasting services, and will require special infrastructure arrangements. In general, the requirements are:
The infrastructure must accommodate research and development. Virtually all SI activities except the routine activities under "climate monitoring and diagnostics" are experimental in nature and subject to continuous change and evolution. The infrastructure must be flexible and able to respond quickly to change.
The infrastructure will include the network of WMO Centres with functionality in Analysis and Prediction and activities on both the global and regional scales. These and other Centres operated by individual WMO Member States or groups of Member States would undertake data assimilation and processing functions (e.g. running numerical prediction models in an operational mode) and provide out put products to support climate services activities operating at the national level.
The infrastructure must address a wide range of products of quite different content, methods of production, and intended use. These include (1) Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Products comprised of current analyses based on data and evaluated with respect to the historical record. (2) Objective Numerical Prediction Products obtained as output from ocean and/or atmosphere models. Rapid progress is being made toward coupled ocean-atmosphere model systems. (3) SI Forecast and Outlook Products based on the objective predictions, statistical relationships and subjective weighting of various inputs.
The infrastructure must accommodate institutional players on the global, regional and national scales. The institutions will be NMHSs and may include academic research institutions as well as governmental institutions. The institutions should be able to demonstrate greater operational stability and long term commitment.
The infrastructure must allow for a variety of product dissemination means including the WMO/GTS, the Internet and other networks and facilities (e.g. Telefax, mail etc.).
3.4 The WWW/GDPS
3.4.1 The meeting agreed that in the SI arena the components of the activity that clearly fit within the WWW/GDPS framework are the Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic activities and the Objective Numerical Prediction activities. The SI Forecast and Outlook component is addressed in the framework of the World Climate Program and its CLIPS project (see 3.3 below) taking into account existing GDPS infrastructure and procedures.
3.4.2 The purpose, organization and function of the GDPS is laid out in the Manual on the Global Data Processing System (WMO No. 485) Part I. While the original structure and function of the GDPS was principally to support weather prediction objectives, decisions over the years have lead to the creation of Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) some with Geographical Specialization and some with Activity Specialization. These specializations address specific operational requirements, supporting, for example, tropical cyclone prediction or emergency response operations. The present list of centers is given in Appendix I-1 to the Manual. The GDPS has developed procedures for broadening the functions of existing RSMCs and for designating new ones as given in Appendix I-2 to the manual.
3.4.3 The Manual on the GDPS assigns responsibilities to WMCs and RSMCs with Geographical Specialization to undertake many SI operations (see Part II, paragraph 1.3.1,and 18.104.22.168). The Manual also indicates that future designation of RSMCs with Activity Specialization and with responsibilities addressing SI needs could be made if and when required (see Part II paragraph 22.214.171.124). The meeting was advised that the establishment and formulation of responsibilities for RSMCs for tropical cyclone forecasting and provision of transport model products for environmental emergency response may provide a model for the role of specialized centres.
3.4.4 The meeting reviewed and discussed the over-all issue of the designation of "Centers" and possibly also considered alternative programmatic mechanisms for carrying out SI activities. It was noted that the potential for confusion and duplication of effort was very high if the various possible players in the SI operations each go their own way and create more than one network. One task of the Informal Planning Meeting was to begin the process of developing proposals for the network that will emerge in the next few years.
3.4.5 In order to provide some initial thoughts for how the WWW Basic Systems/GDPS Center structure might be utilized as a central component of the SI infrastructure, several approaches were discussed. The motivation for considering different approaches for SI activities, in addition to the traditional GDPS structure that serves weather prediction operations, was based on several factors, including:
Oceanography is a much more important element in the SI science than it is in weather prediction; some way to make this dimension visible is desirable.
The emerging institutional players in SI operations will be significantly different from the WMCs and RSMCs supporting weather operations. Research focused institutions; both within Government Agencies and outside of Government (e.g. Academic Institutions) will be major participants. A framework that addresses this spectrum of diverse institutions would be useful.
Names and labels are important factors in the way the broader community views and understands the institutional arrangements supporting an activity.
SI forecasting is still at an experimental stage and expressions and consideration of confidence levels assume major importance.
3.4.6 Several options were considered regarding designation of SI Centers within the GDPS framework and the meeting expressed a preference for the option to utilize the present RSMC designation and create RSMCs with Climate Monitoring and Prediction Specialization.
3.4.7 This has the positive attribute of taking advantage of the present over-all structure and not creating new structures. It would require little process to institute. There is, however, a need for further definition of functions and the role of RSMCs providing SI products vis-à-vis the NMHSs and their central and lead role at national level.
3.4.8 The meeting suggested that the President of CBS in consultation with the Presidents of CCl and CAS and with the Climate Research community (e.g. Chairman of WCRP JSC) to form an expert group under the auspices of the CBS Open Progamme Area Group (OPAG) on Data Processing and Forecast Systems (DPFS) to address this organizational issue taking into account discussions under all agenda items. The expert group would be charged with coming up with a detailed formulation for the creation of appropriate GDPS centers, their functions, responsibility and operations.
3.5 The WCP/WCASP/CLIPS
3.5.1 The meeting noted that CLIPS is a project within the WCP/ World Climate Applications and Services Program (WCASP) that was created by the Twelfth Meteorological Congress in 1995 and had as its original objectives to:
Demonstrate the value and eventual socio-economic benefits of climate information and prediction services.
Provide an international framework to enhance and promote climate information and prediction.
Encourage the development of operational climate prediction.
Facilitate the development and the strengthening of a global network of regional/national climate centres.
3.5.2 CLIPS planning documents that list the "Stages" that are undertaken in the provision of SI services were reviewed. These stages are:
Climate Data (WWW/GOS, GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, WCDMP etc.)
Analyses and Predictions (SST, Anomalies, etc.)
User Oriented Products (Rainfall probabilities, Risks of Extreme Events etc.)
User Interface (Outreach, Credibility, Marketing, Media etc.)
User Applications and Benefits (Increased yields, Better decisions etc.)
3.5.3 The meeting agreed that the CLIPS role currently falls in Stage 3. User Oriented Products, and Stage 4. User Interface. However the meeting also agreed that the success of CLIPS was critically dependent upon systems operating effectively at Stages 1 and 2. Accordingly it was agreed that the form of the role that CLIPS would play in Stages 1 and 2 should be a consideration for the future.
3.5.4 The provision of SI Forecast and Outlook products is presently taking place at several levels, from the global coverage provided through monthly products issued by organisations such as the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, UKMO and ECMWF, to regionally focused services coming from regional centres like the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and the RA-I Drought Monitoring Centres, CPTEC and FUNCEME, to services provided nationally by the NMHSs. In addition, other innovative activities have emerged in recent years such as regional/sub-regional Climate Outlook Fora that are designed to bring climate researchers dealing with climate information and prediction and specialists in climate services and users together to jointly develop a consensus climate outlook for the region/sub-region. These workshop-like events offer direct training and feedback opportunities as well. However a further training need for climatologists and users was also recognised, and that this need might be satisfied through courses such as that organised by CLIPS and ACMAD in Niamey.
3.5.5 Since the provision of SI Forecast and Outlook services cover such a wide range of activities, and the interface with the user community is so complex and often regionally unique, it is difficult to propose a specific infrastructure model that might apply universally. If a GDPS arrangement emerges, as outlined above for the Objective Numerical Prediction component of SI operations, then the WCP/WCASP/CLIPS could focus on the development of an infrastructure to provide the international mechanism to carry out the SI Forecast and Outlook function. The NMHSs are the crucial players at the national level and a CLIPS primary task would be to develop this capacity.
3.5.6 The interface with the WWW Basic Systems is important. At the least, the functions for CCl and the WCP in this context are to provide requirements to the Basic Systems, to assist in the oversight and monitoring of the performance of the SI related activities, and to encourage and foster the NMHSs to carry out the necessary observations and data exchange to make the system work.
3.5.7 The meeting concluded that it was not possible to specify an international organizational framework for this component of the SI activity at this time but proposed that the Presidents of CCl and CBS arrange for an expert group to propose standards for the formats, content (e.g. verification measures) and guidance information required for SI Forecast and Outlook products exchanged internationally (see 4.4 below).
3.6 Presentations of Centres' Activities
3.6.1 The meeting took the opportunity of the presence of participants from most major centres with long-range weather and climate prediction activities and spent some time on exchange of views and sharing their experiences through presentation of each centre's activities in long-range forecasting up to multi-seasonal scales.
4. STATUS OF PRODUCTS AVAILABLE AND NEEDS TO DISSEMINATE RESEARCH AND EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS (agenda item 4)
4.1 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Products
4.1.1 The meeting noted that the coordination with institutes involved in SI activities confirmed that the ongoing operational climate monitoring and diagnostics activities at the global, regional and national levels rely primarily on the WMO Basic Systems/Global Observing System (GOS) and the exchange of data over the GTS. The data availability over parts of the world remains deficient and limits the ability to adequately monitor the climate. The WCP World Climate Data and Monitoring Program (WCDMP) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) have been created to help set the requirements and to foster the development of observational networks to do the job. The WWW Basic Systems (GOS, GTS, and GDPS) need to be more effectively matched to the stated requirements associated with climate services. The use of current RSMCs infrastructure and creation of RSMCs with climate monitoring and prediction specialization within the WWW Basic System framework should contribute to this integration and help build the necessary data flow for climate monitoring.
4.1.2 The creation and maintenance of historical data bases, which are the basic climate reference information for climate system monitoring and diagnostics as well as the standard against which Objective Climate Prediction and Climate Forecast and Outlook products may be measured and evaluated, are an important dimension of the Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics activity. The development of the data bases is the responsibility of the WCP/WCDMP, WCRP and GCOS, the success of the enterprise depends crucially on the performance of the WWW Basic Systems, and again, ways to ensure this coordination and cooperation need to be found.
4.1.3 The meeting noted that the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) comprised the climate components of several existing domain-based observing system, e.g. the GOS of the WWW and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The meeting agreed that GCOS would have the critical role of working with the climate research community, especially the CLIVAR Project of the WCRP, in specifying, coordinating and implementing the global and regional observing system requirements for SI activities. In addition, there was the important task of linking an enhanced operational observing system to an effective operational climate monitoring system that would in turn enhance the effectiveness of SI prediction capabilities. In this regard, the meeting noted that knowledge of the basic state of the climate system was critical for both setting the boundary conditions for SI prediction and establishing a basis for assessing the likely impact of predicted anomalies.
4.1.4 A careful evaluation of the interlinked requirements for both climate observations and climate monitoring to serve operational SI activities should be conducted through a series of cooperative studies by the relevant programmes, including WCRP/CLIVAR, GCOS and the WCDMP. The meeting urged the respective advisory groups for these programmes, ensure that such an evaluation be undertaken at an early stage.
4.2 Objective Numerical Prediction Products
4.2.1 The meeting took note of the fact that several institutions (e.g. U.K Met. Office, ECMWF, JMA, CMC, NCEP/CPC, IRI, among others) undertake the regular and systematic integration of numerical prediction models for application to the SI prediction problem. The models and model approaches are quite varied in their major features (e.g. how the ocean is treated) and in many of the details (e.g. model physics and parameterization schemes, ensemble techniques etc.). In virtually all cases the activity is considered "experimental"; however, the models demonstrate enough skill in some regions that the demand for the release of the model output by users wishing to apply the information in real time is intense, especially during the El Nino- La Nina episode of the past three years. The institutions that disseminate their SI Objective Numerical Prediction Products have usually employed the Internet as the principle carrier utilizing "pass word protection" mechanisms to ensure that only authorized users receive the information. Authorization is up to the providing institution. In all cases major research programs are associated with the "operational" production activities and the research programs anticipate the development of more and more sophisticated coupled (ocean-atmosphere) models with improved representation of the land-atmosphere interface. The intent is to replace the present models with the new and improved versions as quickly as possible.
4.2.2 Consultation with several centers indicates that there is potential for instituting an "operational framework" within which the individual centers would cooperate and which would be an organized link to regional applications and national (NMHSs) entities. It was agreed that this framework should fall within the WMO/GDPS (see 3.4 above) and have the following attributes:
Common formats for data transmission using standard NWP output.
Some common parameters including skill and verification results to assist users in evaluating the products.
Agreed product dissemination schedule and dissemination policy (see item 6 below).
Agreed content/level and presentation of guidance information about the model and its performance allowing for frequent changes and updates.
Provide in relevant technical publication and on the center's web site output product list of current available products, distribution, confidence levels, skills and plans for updates.
4.3 Operational Infrastructure Climate Research Interface
4.3.1 The concept of intercomparison of numerical prediction models was reviewed by the meeting. To date this process has been carried out at the research level. Such intercomparisons are and can be used to evaluate the performance of models under different conditions (e.g. El Nino episodes vs. non El Nino cases) and for various geographical areas. Such intercomparisons also serve the purpose of testing the multi-model ensemble approach that has proved useful in various meteorological applications. The meeting supported and encouraged the continuation of such intercomparisons which should be global in scope and cover as long a period as possible.
4.3.2 The intercomparisons rely heavily on common data sets such as the reanalyzes compiled by ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR for model verification and validation purposes. Such data sets need to be available for all parties participating in the intercomparisons.
4.3.3 The recently concluded (Prediction of Climate Variations on Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales) is an example of such an intercomparison and multi-model test. PROVOST will provide valuable guidance with regard to the design and implementation of future intercomparison efforts.
4.3.4 The meeting recognized the ensemble intercomparison taking place within CLIVAR and supported this activity. It encouraged participation in this activity and the dissemination of the results.
4.4 SI Forecast and Outlook Products
4.4.1 The meeting agreed that this category of products is the most complex to summarize, and is the most controversial in the way things are being handled at the present time. The products are analogous to weather forecasts and warnings except that weather warnings and forecasts are typically local in application while the SI Forecast and Outlook Products are more likely to address large time and spatial scales covering climatologically homogenous regions of continents. The necessary international infrastructure is provided by the WWW Basic Systems which determines the structures and standards for the observations (GOS) and the exchange of data and products (GTS), and the required data processing, numerical weather prediction operations, and specialized guidance products (GDPS). In the specific context of the observing system, it will be important to ensure that the full requirements for SI activities will be specified in time within the broader framework of GCOS.
4.4.2 The SI Forecast and Outlook Products may be direct output of numerical or statistical models, blending of the various Objective Numerical Prediction Products, statistical analyses of the observed climate, or consensus opinions of experts. The ways and means of providing climate services are different in different geo-political settings. For example in large countries (e.g. Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Russia, USA) the natural climatological zones fall largely within the national territory and the NMHSs are well positioned to take the lead role. In other cases e.g. a continent with smaller countries and with climatological zones covering large areas, relative to the average area of each of the countries- a regional approach is probably required. In these cases the WMO infrastructure must seek ways to specify and accommodate the respective roles of regional entities and NMHSs appropriately.
4.4.3 There is potential for controversy to arise when more than one SI Forecast and Outlook product covering the same geographical area and time but with substantially different content is publicly issued. If the NMHS has not been appraised of information to be released, objections within the NMHS and confusion on the part of users and the media can result. In which case, the differences in the content become the issue, not the content itself. The role of the NMHS can be one of interpretation and guidance to the users and the media so that forecast information is coherent and adequate technical background information is provided along with the forecast. It is essential therefore that a close rapport develops between an institution and an NMHS that are generating SI information for the same area.
4.4.4 Several different examples of SI Forecast and Outlook operations with an international component can be listed. They span a wide spectrum of mechanisms, from centralized global scale product generation (e.g. IRI and CPTEC) to regional efforts, such as the U.K. Met Office collaboration with the NMHSs of the Sahel region and N.E. Brazil and Météo-France with the Maghrebian countries and ACMAD to the ACMAD applications in Africa, and the series of regional Climate Fora jointly undertaken by WMO/WCP the IRI and NMHSs from the region (See 3.5 above). Many NMHSs also undertake SI Forecast and Outlook operations nationally. The meeting encouraged continuation of intercomparison experiments of seasonal forecast systems handled by the CLIVAR Programme.
4.4.5 The meeting agreed that WMO/WCP/WCASP/CLIPS is the programmatic home for the SI Forecast and Outlook activity. In this context close collaboration will be necessary with the WMO Basic Systems in order to use the GTS effectively and to interface with the GDPS centres. The supporting infrastructure that evolves should include:
Standardized product format for international exchange.
Standardized guidance for utilizing communications systems (GTS, Internet, etc.)
Standardized verification/validation measures.
Central role of NMHSs in the process.
Adequate mechanism for documentation of the forecast process so that users can understand and evaluate the product.
The meeting agreed that the necessary actions are those already covered by 3.5 above.
5. VERIFICATION SYSTEMS (agenda item 5)
5.1 CBS/ GDPS Actions.
5.1.1 The meeting noted that the CBS Expert Meeting on Implementation of GDPS Centers, with the involvement of experts from WCP/CLIPS, made specific proposals for the development and implementation of a verification system for long range forecasting. This proposal took into account CAS activity aimed at recommending the most appropriate scores to use in Dynamic Extended Range Forecasts. The proposal from the CBS Expert Group as endorsed for experimental use by CBS Ext. (98) satisfies the requirement that the scores are applicable to and appropriate for both Objective Numerical Prediction products and the more empirical SI Forecast and Outlook products. Two measures in the Standardized Verification System proposed to be exchanged in the first place are:
Root Mean Square Skill Score (RMSSS)
Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC)
In addition, other additional candidate diagnostics were proposed by CBS. As experience is gained some of these other measures of skill will also be of interest. The details of the proposed scheme are given in annex to paragraph 4.3.11 of the general summary of CBS Ext. (98).
5.1.2 The meeting noted that it was foreseen that there would be coordination with CLIPS implementation aspects of the score standardized verification system under the CBS Open Progamme Area Group (OPAG) on Data Processing and Forecasting System (DPFS).
5.1.3 The meeting agreed that a common system of verification scores was essential and confirmed interest in complying with the procedures. It affirmed the CBS proposal as a first step and encourage Members to begin to compute and exchange the two suggested measures. Further insight into the verification/validation issue would naturally come out of related model intercomparison activities (see 4.3 above).
6. REQUIREMENTS AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR DELIVERY AND RECEPTION SYSTEMS (agenda item 6)
6.1 The meeting concurred that the utilization of the GTS to support WMO programs has great merit. The GTS links all Members, is controlled in the sense that authorization is required within countries to have access to it, and it is totally devoted to carrying WMO messages. At the same time, it is well recognized that the "store-and-forward" technology, the limitations in bandwidth over major parts of the system, and is a restricted ability to handle graphics etc. are severe limiting factors for the GTS. While urgent efforts to upgrade the GTS are underway it is acknowledged that it will be unable to meet fully the SI operational requirements in the near term.
6.2 Practically all SI products presently available are communicated over the Internet. For products like the Objective Numerical Prediction products from ECMWF, U.K. Met. Office and IRI, the mechanism of utilizing password protection has been implemented with the provider controlling the administration of the passwords.
6.3 In the foreseeable future some mix of delivery and reception systems must be anticipated. As the GTS develops more Internet-like capabilities more SI product delivery can migrate there. At the present time the Internet, supplemented with telefax and mail must remain the primary carrier for SI products. It is anticipated that soon Internet access will be technically feasible in all Member States. An organized effort on the part of WMO, focusing on obtaining Technical Assistance Projects, could ensure that adequate reception capability is in place in all NMHSs. The CLIPS Pilot Project component is one vehicle among others for accomplishing this Technical Assistance.
6.4 The meeting welcomed the progress made by CBS in developing guidelines for use of the Internet in exchanging meteorological data and products. The meeting agreed that the requirements for delivery and reception systems cover both technical and programmatic issues and noted that in time the GTS will be an NMHSs private Intranet-type network with adequate security protection for additional products and scope for priority access to SI products before they are made publicly available. Transmission of SI information should adhere to the guidelines for use of the Internet under preparation by CBS.
6.5 The meeting recommended that a mechanism allowing NMHSs and regional and sub-regional centres to have first access to SI products before they are made publicly available should be further developed by CBS in collaboration with the Centres involved. This would then allow the NMHSs to become the first line of interaction with users and the media and would enable them to provide an appropriate level of scientific depth to the interpretation of the products.
7. REQUIREMENTS FOR PREDICTION PRODUCTS AS INPUT BY MEMBERS' NMHSs FOR THEIR OWN PROVISION OF LONG RANGE WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES (agenda item 7)
7.1 The meeting agreed that no clear statement of requirements for operational SI products exists. There is a growing understanding of the potential for application of both the Objective Numerical Prediction products and the SI Forecast and Outlook products since the experimental products have now been disseminated to many users. The experimental products exhibit a variety of styles of presentation (format and content) so that some experience is available to help with the definition of requirements. It was agreed that the World Climate Program should be charged with the responsibility for assembling and maintaining such a statement of requirements. The requirements of both Regional Centres and NMHSs should be included. Input from the Climate Fora and other workshops and regional meetings would be beneficial. The requirement statement must be structured so that it directly assists the various participants in the SI infrastructure to design and implement the components that they are responsible for. The meeting also agreed that the Regional Climate Outlook Fora are making an important contribution to the development of SI. Concern was raised that the fora have not been adequately funded. Development of fora procedures should be included within the CLIPS framework.
7.2 In summary the meeting proposed that the WCP should undertake, as a matter of urgency, the preparation of a comprehensive statement of requirements for operational prediction and forecast products. Much of the planning for infrastructure will depend on this requirement statement. Input from Regional Centres, NHMSs as well as end users of the climate services will be necessary.
8. NEEDS AND OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING GUIDANCES ON INTERPRETATION AND USE OF THE PRODUCTS (agenda item 8)
8.1 The meeting agreed that significant research is needed to advance the level of skill in SI prediction activity. It follows that the products will continue to evolve and change often, and therefore that the method of presentation of guidance information must be flexible enough to accommodate these changes. One proposal is that the guidance material should be web-based and prepared and maintained by each providing institution. Some mechanism to keep the various guidance pages under review and to strive for some standards for content and presentation may be possible if the providing centres agree to cooperate. The task might be taken by a CCL Rapporteur. It was noted that the Statement of Requirements discussed in Part 4. above should specify the content and style of presentation of the guidance material. Provision should be made for direct feedback to the providing centre on the experience in using and applying the SI products.
8.2 It was noted that the Annual WWW Progress Report already provides information on the activities and products of various centres. However this should not replace the Web-based guidance since the timeliness requirement is not satisfied through annual reporting.
8.3 The meeting recognised the importance of guidance and encouraged its production. It further proposed that the Presidents of CCl and CBS supported by the WMO Secretariat staff should survey the present guidance available from the producers of the SI products and then organize an expert group involving representatives from NMHSs and other users to review the present situation and develop recommendations for the Web-based system. The experience gained by the CLIPS experts in the roving seminar series, and from the various Training Workshops and Fora, should help immensely in setting the requirements.
9. PROPOSALS FOR TRAINING ACTIVITIES (agenda item 9)
9.1 The meeting noted that training has been a major thrust of the WCP/WCASP/CLIPS program activities over the last few years. Categories of training have included:
Training seminars and workshops, e.g. of one-week duration for NMHS staff.
Advanced training workshops of two to three week duration. Review of research developments, hands on experience in climate service provision.
Roving seminars visits of experts for on-the-spot training of NMHS staff.
Climate outlook fora regional and sub-regional meetings to develop a consensus climate outlook. These workshops bring together experts from the advanced climate prediction centres, NMHS staff, and experts from the various user sectors.
In addition, some institutions issuing SI products (including ECMWF, UK Met Office, IRI, ACMAD, CPTEC) have undertaken major training initiatives focusing on their own products and their application. Recent activities have started to incorporate training of users.
9.2 It was agreed that it would be wise and prudent to glean as much information as possible from the experience gained during this recent burst of training activity and to identify what has been effective and what hasnt. At the same time some study of the overall training required needs to be undertaken. Answers are required, for example, to questions like: "How many NMHS staff trained to what level, are required to perform an efficient climate services operation? What level of training is required to use and interpret Objective Numerical Prediction products? What have been the experiences of IRI, UK Met Office, ECMWF and NCEP/CPC and others in instituting the various experimental and operational programs to date?
9.3 One training mechanism that is just beginning to be developed is distance learning programs (i.e. the training takes place away from the training centre but some student-teacher interaction is permitted in non-real time) utilizing the Internet. One example of this kind of training mechanism is being developed at the UCAR Centre for Operational Meteorological Education and Training (COMET) In which a pilot course on Satellite Meteorology has been prepared and implemented in cooperation with WMO. Other courses designed for advanced training of US National Weather Service personnel have proven successful and cost effective when many staff are trained on the same module. It is recognized that the need to produce such material in several languages is a complicating factor in the application of this technology to WMO needs.
9.4 The meeting proposed that the requirements statement suggested in Section 7 should include an analysis of training requirements and that sources of available documentation be identified. Detailed requirements for training should be considered by the Presidents of CBS and CCl in collaboration with the Education and Training Department of WMO.
10. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING (agenda item 10)
10.1 The meeting closed on Friday, 30 April 1999.
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
|AUSTRALIA||Douglas J. Gauntlett
Bureau of Meteorology
GPO Box 1289K
MELBOURNE VIC 3001
Tel: (613) 9669 4371
Fax: (613) 9669 4548
|BRAZIL||Alaor Moacyr Dall'Antonia
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia
Eixo Monumental - via S1
Tel: (55 61) 344 9955
Fax: (55 61) 343 2487
Canadian Meteorological Centre
2121 North Service Road
404 Trans-Canada Hwy
DORVAL, QUEBEC H9P 1J3
Tel: (1 514) 421 4765
Fax: (1 514) 421 4703
China Meteorological Administration
46 Baishiqiao Road
Tel: (8610) 6840 6541
Fax: (8610) 6217 5924
Service Central d'Exploitation de la Météorologie
42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis
31057 Toulouse Cedex 01
Tel: (33 5) 6107 8300
Fax: (33 5) 6107 8309
President of CBS
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Zentralamt
Frankfurter Str. 135
Tel: (49 69) 8062 2846
Fax: (49 69) 8062 2005
Senior Coordinator for Climate Modelling
Climate Prediction Division
Japan Meteorological Agency
1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku
TOKYO 100 8122
Tel: (813) 3212 8341 (ext. 4224)
Fax: (813) 3211 8406
|RUSSIAN FEDERATION||Alexander A. Vasiliev
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology
and Environmental Monitoring
12 Novovagankovsky Street
123 242 MOSCOW
Tel: (7 095) 252 3448
Fax: (7 095) 255 1582
|SOUTH AFRICA||Willem A. Landman
South African Weather Bureau
Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
Private Bag X097
Tel: (27 12) 309 3717
Fax: (27 12) 323 4518
|UNITED KINGDOM||Mike Keith Davey
UK Met Office
London Road, Bracknell
BERKSHIRE RG12 2SZ
Tel: (44 1344) 854 648
Fax: (44 1344) 854 499
|UNITED KINGDOM||Mike Nicholls
Vice-president of CCl
18 Heath Close
BERKSHIR RG41 2PG
|USA||Edward A. O'Lenic
Climate Prediction Centre
5200 Auth Road
CAMP SPRINGS, MD 20746
Tel: (1 301) 763 8000 (ext. 7528)
Fax: (1 301) 763 8395
|USA||Professor Peter J. Lamb,
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS)
The University of Oklahoma
100 East Boyd, Room 1110
NORMAN, OKLAHOMA 73019-1011
Tel: (1 405) 325 3041
Fax: (1 405) 325 7614
|ACAMAD||Mohamed S. Boulahya
Director General, ACMAD
Tel: (227) 723 160
Fax: (227) 723 627
|CPTEC/INPE||Iracema F.A. Cavalcanti
Av. dos Astronautas
1.758 - Jd. Granja, CEP 12227-010
SÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS- SP
Tel: (55 12) 560 8478
Fax: (55 12) 561 2835
Av. dos Astronautas
1.758 - Jd. Granja, CEP 12227-010
SÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS- SP
Tel: (55 12) 460 8464
Fax: (55 12) 561 2835
|DMC-NAIROBI||Joseph Mukuria Kimani
Scientific Team Leader
Drought Monitoring Centre
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road
P.O. Box 30259
Tel: (254 2) 567 864
Fax: (254 2) 567 888; 577 373
Shinfield Park, Reading
BERKSHIRE RG2 9AX
Tel: (44 118) 949 9060
Fax: (44 118) 986 9450
|FUNCEME||Teresinha de Maria B.S. Xavier
Rua Oswaldo Cruz - 176 Apto. 400
Meileres CEP - 60.125.150
Tel: (55 85) 242 3702
|IRI||Chester F. Ropelewski
International Research Institute
for Climate Prediction
P.O. Box 1000, 61 Rt. 9W
PALISADES, NY 10964-800
Tel: (1 914) 365 8490
7 bis, avenue
de la Paix
|Robert C. Landis
World Weather Watch Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8221
Fax: (41 22) 730 8021
|Mike J. Coughlan
World Climate Programme Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8269
Fax: (41 22) 730 8042
|Dieter C. Schiessl
World Weather Watch Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8369
Fax: (41 22) 730 8021
|Morrison E. Mlaki
Data Processing Systems Division
World Weather Watch Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8231
Fax: (41 22) 730 8021
Clips Projects Office
World Climate Programme Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8273
Fax: (41 22) 730 8042
World Climate Applications Division
World Climate Programme Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8268
Fax: (41 22) 730 8042
Senior Scientific Officer
Climate Research Projects
World Climate Research Programme Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8242
Fax: (41 22) 730 8181
Junior Professional Officer
World Climate Research Programme Department
Tel: (41 22) 730 8356
Fax: (41 22) 730 8181
44, Brighton Drive
Gaithersburg MD 20877
Tel: (1 301) 330 8499
Fax: (1 301) 330 0999
1. OPENING OF THE MEETING
2. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING
2.1 Election of a chairman
2.2 Approval of the agenda
2.3 Working arrangements for the meeting
3. INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE OPERATIONAL GENERATION OF THE PRODUCTS;
4. STATUS OF PRODUCTS AVAILABLE AND NEEDS TO DISSEMINATE RESEARCH AND EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS;
5. VERIFICATION SYSTEMS;
6. REQUIREMENTS AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR DELIVERY AND RECEPTION SYSTEMS;
7. REQUIREMENTS FOR PREDICTION PRODUCTS AS INPUT BY MEMBERS' NMHSS FOR THEIR OWN PROVISION OF LONG-RANGE WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES;
8. NEEDS AND OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING GUIDANCE ON INTERPRETATION AND USE OF THE PRODUCTS;
9. PROPOSALS FOR TRAINING ACTIVITIES;
10. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING.