GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE SESSION

1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION (Agenda item 1)

1.1 Opening of the session (agenda item 1.1)

1.1.1 The twenty-second session of the Advisory Working Group (AWG) of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) was held at the kind invitation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in the Headquarters, Melbourne, from 18 to 22 January 1999. The session was opened at 10 a.m. on Monday, 18 January, by the president of CBS, Mr S. Mildner. The list of participants is given in the annex to this paragraph.

1.1.2 In his opening remarks, Mr Mildner thanked Dr G. Love, Acting Director of Meteorology, for hosting this session of the Advisory Working Group and providing such excellent facilities. He recognised the major contribution being made by Australia to CBS activities and the implementation of the WWW. Mr Mildner remarked that this was the first AWG meeting for the chairpersons of the Open Programme Area Groups (OPAGs) as they were all newly designated by the last session of CBS. He expressed satisfaction over the decision of the Commission to establish again the AWG on the basis of a regionally balanced membership. He regretted in this connection that Mr Sonzini (Argentina) was not able attend. Mr Mildner said that this was a particularly important session of the Advisory Working Group in the light of the work programme set out by CBS-Ext(98), including the final-pending steps to implement fully the new working structure of the Commission.

1.1.3 Mr Mildner thanked the invited experts, who attended parts of the session with respect to certain agenda items. These were: Dr Ray Canterford (Australia), Vice-President of CIMO, with respect to matters related to the collaboration of CBS and CIMO; Dr Kevin O’Loughlin (Australia), with respect to relevant activities of the World Weather Research Programme; and Mr Tony Quayle (New Zealand), consultant, with respect to the methodology for monitoring the availability of data in connection with the implementation of Resolution 40 (Cg-XII); Dr Neville Nicholls (Australia) with respect to climate prediction issues on behalf of CAS.

1.1.4 In welcoming the participants to Melbourne, Dr Love explained the arrangements made to support the work of the Group. He assured the meeting that he and his staff would do everything possible to ensure the success of the meeting. He hoped that all the participants would have a very pleasant and memorable stay in Melbourne.

1.2 Adoption of the agenda (agenda item 1.2)

The AWG adopted the agenda for the session, which is reproduced in the annex to this paragraph.

1.3 Working arrangements for the session (agenda item 1.3)

The working hours and tentative timetable for the session were agreed upon.

2. CO-ORDINATION OF CBS/CAS COLLABORATION ON THE WWRP (Agenda item 2)

2.1  The AWG recalled that at the extraordinary session (Karlsruhe, October 1998) the CBS had noted the proposal by the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences endorsed by the EC to set up the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). CBS had expressed its broad support for the orientation of WWRP to develop improved and cost-effective techniques for forecasting high impact weather and to promote their application among members. The AWG was informed that, following discussions at the meeting of presidents of technical commissions (Geneva, October 1998), the president had agreed that CBS should be represented at the first meeting of WWRP Science Steering Committee (SSC) (Hong Kong, November 1998) and nominated Dr K O’Loughlin (Australia) to attend the meeting.

2.2  The AWG noted with appreciation the comprehensive report of Dr O’Loughlin on his participation in that meeting as given in the annex to this paragraph. It expressed the opinion that there were strong linkages between WWRP and areas of interest of CBS, in particular high impact weather/disasters, technology transfer, the use of new observing techniques, integrated forecast systems, verification of products, and social and economic benefits. It also noted that the operational implementation of techniques and procedures to be developed under the WWRP would likely lead to an increase in the volume of data and products transmitted via the GTS and could have an impact on data formats to be used. The session concluded that an interaction with the WWRP would involve all OPAGs of the CBS and depend on a well-coordinated and appropriate mechanism to enable maximum benefits to flow to the WWW from the WWRP.

2.3 The AWG invited the president to send a letter to the president of CAS expressing support to the emerging WWRP and identifying the areas of CBS/CAS collaboration on the WWRP. In order to facilitate such collaboration the AWG agreed to nominate rapporteurs within the the OPAG on the IOS and on PWS to liase with and to participate in the work of the SSC for WWRP (see agenda item 4).

3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF RESOLUTION 40 ON THE AVAILABILITY OF DATA (Agenda item 3)

3.1 The AWG noted that following the request of EC, CBS-Ext(98) agreed that a consultant should be engaged to develop a methodology for assessing the availability of surface synoptic data before and after the adoption of Resolution 40. Mr T. Quayle (New Zealand) had been invited to develop such a methodology and to present a report to the AWG session. The report is given in the annex to this paragraph.

3.2 The AWG received with appreciation the report by the consultant and discussed at length the proposed methodology which includes the following two phases:

Phase I - Analysis of historical trends, which requires the retrieval of historic information from Members’ archives to establish trends in the volume of data exchanged from 1992 until 1999, and

Phase II - On-going monitoring from 1999 forwards which should be built on an expanded version of the current practise of the special MTN monitoring (SMM) of data for global exchange and other (including "additional") data volumes.

3.3 The AWG noted that the report of the consultant was distributed among members of CBS for comments, as requested by CBS-Ext(98). The AWG reviewed and took into consideration the comments received to date from several members. In the ensuing discussion the session concluded the following:

- In Phase I, the collection of historical data and the generation of consistent statistical information will be extremely resource consuming both with respect to Members and the WMO Secretariat. Furthermore, presenting the data in a consistent format from various centres would be a considerable task. In the light of the limited resources available and other critical tasks that must be taken up (e.g., the Year 2000 problem) it is unlikely that Members would be able to implement this exercise in 1999, if at all.

- Another critical problem was seen in the fact that it is very doubtful whether the results received would allow the determination of changes in the availability of data that were caused by the implementation of Resolution 40, since there were many other substantial factors which influenced the availability of data (such as restructuring of RBSNs, reduction of observing networks in some countries, problems related to the GTS etc.).

- In Phase II, the ongoing monitoring has, at present, some procedural limitations requiring additional resources to overcome them and there was a need to involve more GDPS centres than at present. The AWG, as well as several Members’ comments, indicated, that an improvement and expansion of the Special MTN Monitoring would be worthwhile as this could result in an improvement in the monitoring of the data flow and data availability on the GTS. This would considerably enhance the capability of Members to detect changes in the data volumes and would help in the more timely identification of causes for data fluctuations, including those impacting on "additional" data. The AWG therefore requested the chairperson of the OPAG/ISS to explore this issue with a view to developing the necessary procedures and a corresponding implementation plan.

3.4 The session further noted that some Members indicated in their comments the possibility of carrying out a survey among all Members, instead of carrying out a monitoring evaluation of historical data as proposed in Phase I. This survey could collect information from each Member on what changes, if any, and the corresponding cause(s), in the volume of surface observation data the Member has made available on the GTS in the years since, for example, 1993. The AWG pointed out that such a survey would require fewer resources than the monitoring project of Phase I. But, it would still take several months before a summary result could be compiled by the Secretariat, and there was still doubt whether such a survey could be bring about a sufficiently consistent and conclusive picture, in particular with respect the potential impact of Resolution 40. The meeting also recalled that a list of Members, who had provided new data as a result of the implementation of Resolution 40, was already available.

3.5 The AWG requested the president to submit the above conclusions to the forthcoming session of the EC Advisory Group on Data Exchange for further consideration.

4. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEW CBS WORKING ARRANGEMENTS (Agenda item 4)

4.1  The AWG reviewed the work programme for each OPAG as adopted by CBS-Ext(98) in order to identify those projects and activities that should be carried out in the time period until the session of CBS-XII planned for October 2000. This process resulted in a re-grouping and adjustment of priorities of some tasks and a clearer identification of the deliverables expected within the timeframe available. The AWG developed the working structure under each OPAG which comprises expert teams (ET), implementation/co-ordination teams (ICT) and rapporteurs, in accordance with the Resolution 2 (CBS-Ext. (98)).

4.2  With regard to the OPAG on Integrated Observing Systems, (IOS), the ETs will focus on two primary issues namely on Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the Global Observing System and on Systems Utilization and Products. The integration of Automatic Weather Stations and relevant data representation will be the subject of a specific team which includes participation from other programmes. Rapporteurs will look after the GCOS aspects related to the WWW.

4.3  The OPAG on Data Processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS) will deal with the evaluation of the impact of changes to the GOS on NWP; the development of a verification system for long-range forecasts with participation from CAS and CCl; carry on with enhancing the emergency response mechanisms in cooperation with other UN-Agencies, and review and enhance the data quality monitoring facilities and methodology.

4.4  The OPAG on Information Systems and Services (ISS) will carry forward the various tasks in the telecommunications and data management sectors which include ICTs on Information Exchange Management and Data Representation and Codes, and ETs on the Evolution of Data Formats and Codes, Data Communication Systems and Techniques; The Guide on WWW Data Management and The Monitoring of the WWW. In addition OPAG/ISS will develop concepts and scenarios for the Future WMO Information Systems; The Improved MTN and Guidance on the Use of the Internet. As decided by CBS-Ext. (98), the Steering Group on Radio-Frequency Coordination (SG-RFC) is maintained as part of the OPAG/ISS.

4.5  Regarding the OPAG on Public Weather Services (PWS), the activities will focus on user oriented product development, verification and services evaluation; Media issues including the interface between NMHSs and national and international media and service providers; the exchange of warnings and forecasts and on the finalization of the Guide on PWS Practices and systematic approaches to capacity building and training in PWS.

4.6 Where needed to achieve an optimal working result, the AWG decided to establish teams with a membership across the OPAGs, e.g., in the case of ET on the year 2000 problem and the use of the Internet by NHMSs. The AWG also emphasized the need to maintain flexibility in the composition and membership of the teams and invited the president to make adjustments when necessary.

4.7  The AWG was aware that various activities of direct relevance to CBS are being carried out, e.g. by groups of Members and as part of other programmes, which need to be considered for integration in the WWW structures and as an opportunity to further the OPAG activities.

4.8  The AWG noted that the total number of teams and their tasks exceeded the available resources in terms of staff and funds. It also recognized that the meeting schedules may have to be adjusted to allow for adequate preparation of the sessions. While aware that not all of the activities identified by CBS-Ext.(98) were likely to be started within the remaining inter-sessional period, the AWG agreed to focus on those projects and teams that were most important/urgent and likely to produce appropriate results by the next session of CBS. The AWG further agreed that each of the OPAGs would need at least one ICT to deal with questions of global implementation and coordination with special focus on the maintenance and further enhancement of the existing WWW infrastructures, and on capacity building in less developed countries including appropriate training measures.

4.9  The AWG furthermore agreed on the membership and chairpersons for each team by making mainly use of the list of experts nominated by the Permanent Representatives before CBS-Ext.(98) and preliminary consultations by the OPAG chairs with the Secretariat at that time. In that process it applied the principles and guidelines adopted by the Commission concerning a balance between expertise, geographical representation, representation of developing countries, and capacity building aspects. The AWG pointed out that the definition of the membership of the ICTs could not be completed at this session, because this required co-ordination with the Regions as regards the nomination of experts under the capacity building/training objective adopted for these teams by CBS. The definition of the teams under each of the OPAGs, their tasks, and membership (as far as this was possible at this time) are given in the annex to this paragraph.

4.10  The AWG also considered the functions and possible designation of vice-chairs for the OPAGs and agreed that the designation of vice-chairs should be left pending for the time being. The AWG suggested that highest priority is placed on the establishment of the teams, followed by gaining some experience with the working mechanism before determining whether it would be necessary to formalise vice-chair functions. Until this is done, the AWG agreed that OPAG chairs should rely on their EC/ICT chairs to ensure the necessary continuity, sharing of workload in the information flow and representation of OPAGs.

4.11  The AWG noted that for some of the members of the ETs or ICTs it was still necessary to seek the formal agreement of the Permanent Representative of their country or from the Directors of the international organizations concerned. It requested the Secretariat to follow up on this issue as soon as possible and to consult with the president and the chairpersons of the OPAGs concerned in those cases where changes to the membership may become necessary.

5. OTHER BUSINESS (Agenda item 5)

5.1 Co-ordination of infrastructure needs for seasonal to interannual climate prediction (agenda item 5.1)

5.1.1 The session recalled that CBS-Ext (98) had requested the president to establish as a matter of some urgency, in collaboration with his counterparts in CCl and CAS and in consultation with a wider climate community, a mechanism for examining the infrastructure needs for seasonal to interannual climate prediction with the aim of providing guidance to Members on the most appropriate way forward. During CBS-Ext(98), the U.K. offered to provide funding for holding a meeting to address this issue.

5.1.2 The session noted that this matter was also discussed at the meeting of the presidents of the Technical Commissions (PTC-98, Geneva, October 1998). The PTC-98 had agreed that CBS, CAS and CCl should co-operate in developing an appropriate infrastructure that would build to the maximum extent on the systems already in place for weather and climate forecasting. Following this recommendation the president of CBS sent in December 1998 a letter to presidents of CAS and CCl with a proposal to consider the possibility of holding an initial planning meeting in the first quarter of 1999. Replies supporting the plans for such a meeting were meanwhile received from the presidents of CAS and CCl.

5.1.3 The AWG expressed its support for the co-operation between the three commissions in this matter and underlined that CBS should play a leading role in that endeavour. Dr N. Nicholls, the representative of CAS at this AWG session, emphasised the necessity for a wider involvement of other bodies related to the climate research and prediction such as Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and the WCRP Climate Variability Project (CLIVAR) and other relevant programmes.

5.1.4 The AWG proposed to hold a planning meeting in April 1999. It also felt that it would be desirable to have a short preparatory meeting of presidents of CBS, CAS and CCl or their representatives to finalise the provisional agenda and to discuss how and in what form a status report on this issue could be presented to Cg-XIII. The AWG prepared a draft provisional agenda, which is given in the annex to this paragraph.

5.1.5 The AWG was of the opinion that representatives of the GDPS centres of the following Members should participate in the planning meeting: Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Russian Federation, South Africa, U.K., and the U.S.A.. Furthermore, the following institutes or organizations focusing on long-range predictions should be invited to send representatives: ECMWF, INPE, IRI, Hadley Centre, Max-Planck Institute, and NCAR. In addition, representatives of the following programmes should also be invited: GCOS, GOOS and CLIVAR. The user community should be represented at the meeting by one NMHSs per Region (selected upon consultation with the president of each Region), as well as by ACMAD, and the Drought Monitoring Centres (DMC) Harare and Nairobi.

5.1.6 In conclusion, the session invited the president to continue with the organization of the meeting with the assistance of the Secretariat and in co-ordination with other presidents concerned.

5.2 Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) (agenda Item 5.2)

5.2.1 The AWG was informed of the status of EMWIN implemented by the US National Weather Service for the distribution (broadcast via GEOS 8 and 10) of hazardous weather information, warnings and advisories, satellite images, as well as emergency messages. The EMWIN system uses small, inexpensive and weather-robust satellite terminals that can receive the re-broadcast through the GOES, from ground-based radio re-transmissions, or via the Internet. The information disseminated originates from the US-NWS and the data and products are available free of charge. The current footprint coverage includes the Americas and the Pacific Ocean to the Australian coastline. The AWG was advised of the possibility of Piece-Sat being used to expand the coverage to include Asia and Australia.

5.2.2 The AWG noted that XII-RA V (Bali, Indonesia, October 1998) recognized the importance of the EMWIN as a supplementary system for the distribution of meteorological data and products to NMHSs within the region, particularly for Pacific Island States. Consequently, the RA V session had agreed to include the EMWIN as supplementary function of the GTS in the Regional Meteorological Telecommunication Network.

5.2.3 The AWG recognized the potential of the EMWIN to improve the distribution of meteorological data and products to NMHSs in geographical areas where the GTS infrastructure is weak or inadequate. With this in mind, the AWG requested the chairperson of the OPAG/ISS to explore the application of the EMWIN in broader sense including end user requirements. It also invited the president to explore with the Permanent Representative of the USA the possibility of more fully integrating EMWIN into the WWW framework. In particular, this should include also the question of disseminating data and products provided by NMHSs as a part of the WWW via EMWIN, to meet requirements of countries under the EMWIN footprint.

5.3 Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) (agenda item 5.3)

5.3.1  The AWG noted with appreciation the presentation made by Dr James Purdom regarding the activities in the development of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) and in particular the role of WMO in this process. Dr Purdom’s presentation is given in the annex to this paragraph.

5.3.2  The AWG agreed that WMO through the CBS need to commit itself to establishing a key partner role in the IGOS development. It requested the chairperson of OPAG/IOS and the Secretariat to keep contacts with the IGOS and stimulate the role of WMO in the IGOS partnership.

5.4  CIMO/CBS Collaboration (agenda item 5.4)

5.4.1  The AWG noted with appreciation the presentation on collaboration between CIMO and CBS made by the vice-president of CIMO, Dr R. Canterford (Australia). The session pointed out that in recent years, CBS closely collaborated with CIMO in several areas namely the development and distribution among Members guidance material regarding replacement of OMEGA-based upper-air equipment by alternative systems, the protection of the radiosonde frequency bands and the search for new radio-frequency allocations for wind-profilers, harmonization of the GOS Manual and Guide with the CIMO Guide, and the development of requirements for measurement accuracy.

5.4.2  The AWG was informed that EC-L recognizing the close collaboraton between CIMO and CBS in the past, had requested the two Commissions to improve and coordinate their activities in areas of common interest. The AWG considered some areas where CBS and CIMO could improve collaboration. The first one is in the field of automation of observations, especially for automating visual and subjective observations. To this end an Expert Team on this particular issue had been established at this session within the OPAG/OIS. The second issue was CIMO’s contribution to the development of criteria for the redesign of the GOS. It was recognized that participation of a CIMO expert in this area, particularly in the review and assessment of new technologies that are candidate for the future composite GOS would be very valuable. In this respect, the AWG stressed the necessity to intensify collaboration with CIMO in the satellite area (e.g. calibration of satellite sensors, etc.).

5.4.3  The AWG recognized that coordination should be continued with CIMO in activities related to surface and upper-air observations, and the harmonization of the GOS and new CIMO Guide with a view to the inclusion of regulatory material in the Manual on the GOS. It requested the chair of the OPAG on IOS to nominate experts to represent CBS interests in the CIMO WGs on Upper-air and Surface Measurements.

5.4.4  The AWG concluded that the active participation of the vice-president of CIMO in the work of this session had been very helpful and useful, and agreed that the practice of the presidents and vice-presidents of both commissions participating in meetings of their AWGs, depending on the circumstances and pending issues, cross-feeding should be encouraged in the future.

6. CLOSURE OF THE SESSION (Agenda item 6)

6.1  After expressions of thanks to Dr Love and his staff for the hospitality offered to the participants and the facilities provided for the meeting, the twenty-second session of the CBS Advisory Working Group closed at 3.15 p.m. on 22 January 1999.

ANNEX to paragraph 1.1.1

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

1. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING
   
2. COORDINATION OF THE CBS/CAS COLLABORATION ON THE WWRP
   
3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF RESOLUTION 40 ON THE AVAILABILITY OF DATA
   
4. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEW CBS WORKING ARRANGEMENTS
   
5. OTHER BUSINESS

5.1 Co-ordination of infrastructure needs for seasonal to interannual climate prediction
5.2 Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN)
5.3 Integrated Global Observing Strategy
5.4 CIMO/CBS Collaboration

6. CLOSURE OF THE SESSION

1. The first session of the Science Steering Committee of the WMO World Weather Research Programme was held in Hong Kong, China from 18 - 23 November 1998 at the premises of the Hong Kong Observatory, under the chairmanship of Dr R. Carbone.
2. This Science Steering Committee (SSC) was formally established by the Twelfth Session of CAS via Resolution 2 (see copy at Attachment A). This had been preceded by two meetings of an Interim Science Steering Committee at Toulouse, France in November 1996, and Cairns, Australia in October 1997.
3. Following a CAS invitation to CBS to liaise with and participate in the work of the Committee, CBS at the CBS Extraordinary Session in 1998, asked its Advisory Working Group to arrange representation. Mr K. J. O’Loughlin, RA-V Co-rapporteur on Public Weather Services attended the SSC at the request of the President of CBS Mr S. Mildner. CBS representation was further strengthened by the presence of Mr Yan Hong (China) and member of the CBS Advisory Working Group.
4. Because the WMO Secretariat is preparing a detailed report on the meeting, this report aims to summarise those issues addressed at the meeting that are of most interest to CBS and to comment on future interaction between CBS and the SSC/WWRP.
5. The Agenda for the Session is at Attachment B, and a list of attendees is at Attachment C.

The WWRP and Its Relevance to CBS

6. The WWRP represents a re-definition by CAS of the direction and emphasis of weather prediction research in the WMO Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme. The new direction and emphasis being taken is described in some detail in an appendix to the report of the Interim Science Steering Committee (ISSC) held in Cairns in October 1997. The WWRP integrates the previous Short- Medium- and Long-Range Weather Prediction Research Programmes. Some brief comments as it relates specifically to CBS follow.
7. The essence of the WWRP concept is to promote the development and application of improved weather forecasting techniques, with emphasis on high impact events. The WWRP description explains that the concept had its origins in the belief that recent advances in the scientific understanding of the relevant physical processes along with parallel developments in complementary computing, communications and observational technologies now make it possible to substantially improve weather forecasting performance with major economic and societal benefits.

8. The WWRP Mission is:

• "To undertake the necessary R&D leading to the development and demonstration of improved and cost effective forecasting techniques, with emphasis on high impact weather, and to promote their application among Member States. High impact weather is defined as weather that affects quality of life, is economically disruptive, or is life threatening and is prominent among the concerns of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. High impact weather can occur in forecast ranges from the very short range to the long range, up to a season".

9. The WWRP Objectives include:

• "To improve public safety, quality of life and economic productivity by accelerating research on the prediction of high impact weather;" and

• "To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with emphasis on high impact events, through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, observational network design, data assimilation and modelling techniques, and information systems."

10. The above references in the mission and objectives of the WWRP help to identify the links between this CAS activity and CBS because of the potential impact of improved weather prediction capability on operational systems, and because some of the main areas for improved scientific understanding and enabling technologies are in areas such as observing systems, numerical modelling, data assimilation, integrated forecast systems and forecast verification. As well, the WWRP is interested in the economic and social benefits flowing from improvements in science and technology of weather prediction. The structure of the SSC as already referred to in Attachment A identifies the Rapporteurs covering these topics.
11. The main mode of operation of the WWRP is in the assessment and endorsement of international efforts that are either Research and Development Projects (RDPs) or Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDPs). RDPs will aim to achieve improved understanding, while FDPs will serve to show and quantify the benefits to be derived from improved understanding and enabling technologies. An important element of both RDPs and FDPs is the feasibility of technology transfer and training. The WWRP also seeks to facilitate, but not implement, technology transfer and training. Transfer implies both transfer from the research to the operational domain, and transfer from developed to developing countries
12. The WWRP recognises that its future research priorities will need to reflect the requirements of the major applications areas. This emphasises that the WWRP needs to address issues such as effective evaluation of projects, forecast verification, and impacts on society. It also recognises that the research will need to take account of the capabilities of existing basic systems and contribute constructively to their future development directions.

WWRP Projects

13. This first meeting of the SSC considered six project proposals and a further 3 papers discussion topics of major interest that may develop into formal project proposals. The following list of project proposals and other papers presented summarises the outcome from the meeting with emphasis on matters most relevant to CBS. The text of motions and recommendations approved by the Committee is at Attachment D.

Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP)

14. This is the first formally approved RDP of the WWRP. The project has had a substantial planning period and involves a major commitment of resources, including 8 planes, 6 research radars and 2 ground based Doppler lidars. The development of this project is already having an influence on operational systems in that it has been a catalyst to arranging an integrated radar display over Western Europe. The plans concerning NWP during MAP are also well advanced, with an on-going project involving Environment Canada, the Swiss Meteorological Institute, and ETH Zurich, to run a special high resolution model in real time based on the MC2 (Canadian) code.
15. The Committee recommended that the Project should develop closer connections with social scientists and decision-makers with interests directly related to the project objectives. This could include collaborative research on the social and economic impacts of flash flood events, and research on the value of forecasts and improved forecasts to decision-makers.

Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project

16. The aim of this proposed project is to demonstrate how operationally tested state of the art nowcast systems can provide an improved nowcast service and to quantify the associated benefits. The project will use both observational techniques and experimental numerical weather prediction. A number of international systems will be available to supplement resources provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Nowcasts generated by the systems will be channelled to Bureau of Meteorology forecasters and evaluated for their added value or impact on the official forecasts.
17. The FDP will be conducted over 2 years with a trial demonstration phase in September 1999 before the main project period 1 September to 30 November 2000 which encompasses the Olympics, the Paralympics and a further one month period.
18. In approving this as a WWRP Project, the SSC asked that a more detailed plan for evaluation be prepared in time for the 1999 trial demonstration phase. It also made a number of recommendations including an offer for the WWRP Verification and Impacts advisory Groups to assist the Bureau of Meteorology in these areas with this project.

Tropical Cyclone Landfall

19. This is a project that had been identified as one that could provide a focus for the research direction of the WWRP. This is a project that could have direct relevance to improved weather forecasting and also to improved understanding on the social and economic impacts. The topic is relevant to continuing the work of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.
20. The SSC endorsed research on this topic and asked that an Interim Steering Committee be established to develop a detailed science plan for an initial RDP in cooperation with the Tropical Cyclone Meteorology research Programme.

Aircraft In-Flight Icing

21. This project proposal reflects a desire to widen the international focus a project currently aimed at North America. Substantial work is being done by Canadian and US scientists and is being supported by bodies such as the US FAA.
22. The SSC endorsed the need for further work in this area and for a wider geographic focus. It asked that a global climatology of freezing precipitation be prepared and that a science plan be developed for the next meeting of the SSC in October 1999. It also asked that the steering committee of the project be expanded to include stronger representation by experts in numerical modelling and remote sensing.

Hazardous Weather and Cyclones in the Mediterranean (MEDEX)

23. The SSC reviewed a proposal for a project to study the development of Mediterranean cyclones but did was unable to decide on a formal project at this stage. It asked that a steering committee be established and that it look at the MAP project to ensure complementary work in view of the possible overlaps.

Predictability and Optimal Observing System Experiment (PROPOSE)

24. The PROPOSE project follows on from FASTEX and is aimed at setting in place a series of research programmes leading towards and Optimal Observing System for the WWW. In essence, the idea is that the NWP models can identify "sensitive zones" where development might take place and that observations could then be targeted at those areas (such as aerosondes).
25. The SSC considered that the project is in one sense too broad and requires focus, though in another sense, the range of observational techniques discussed is perhaps too narrow and that it needs to give more consideration to space based techniques.
26. The SSC asked that an Interim Steering Committee be established for the project and that it interact more closely with the work of members of the WGNE and relevant activities of CBS.

China’s Rain Events 1998

27. The SSC was given a comprehensive briefing on the disastrous 1998 summer floods in China by Prof. Yan Hong. A proposal for work on an intercomparison of warm season rainfall forecasts was seen as directly relevant to WWRP activities. The WWRP will communicate with WGNE and the COMPARE Steering Committee on the issues of collecting the relevant operational model predictions by different centres and about organising a full meso-scale model comparison.

Sand and Dust Storms

28. The SSC considered a presentation by Prof. Yan Hong on dust storms in China and a paper on a proposal for a project on dust and sand storms in the Arab countries. This led to animated discussion about the causes and predictability of these storms and the scope for improved understanding of the mesocale effects. It was agreed that the impacts of these storms could be severe and that was considerable scope to examine how better observational techniques and modelling could improve their predictability.

Urban Flooding and Environment in Sao Paulo, Brazil

29. Considering increased weather-related impacts on large tropical cities, especially with respect to flooding, air quality and other urban environmental conditions, and also considering the existence in Sao Paulo, Brazil of an advanced surface observing network, radars and numerical modelling facilities, the SSC will establish an exploratory subcommittee on urban flooding and environment, including atmospheric prediction, hydrological and social economic impacts aspects. The subcommittee will be chaired by Prof. O. Massambani of the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and will further examine the opportunity for project or projects under the WWRP.

Summary of Linkages between CAS/WWRP and CBS

30. From the meeting and the foregoing summary, the main linkages between the WWRP and the interests of CBS can be summarised as:

• High Impact Weather/Disasters – the re-focus of CAS research activities through the WWRP puts a strong emphasis on high impact weather events and the application of the best available science and technology to better prediction.

• Technology transfer – the WWRP is attempting to put a strong emphasis on evaluation of new techniques and technology and to recognise that this needs to take account of the context of existing systems

• Observing Systems – use of new observing techniques features in most of the project proposals. The need for links with CBS work on the GOS is recognised.

• NWP – again the emphasis is on how to make best use of model performance and available data to improve operational forecasting. Data assimilation is a significant issue.

• Integrated Forecast Systems – the use of integrated forecast display systems feature in projects such as S2000.

• Nowcasting – this provides an opportunity for the combined use of better observations, improved models and better display systems.
• Verification – the WWRP is very interest to use and improve verification methods in all research projects. CBS has strong similar interests in operational weather prediction.
• Social and Economic Benefit – the WWRP will be giving the social and economic impacts considerable priority. There are strong linkages here with the PWS programme.

Conclusion

There are strong linkages between CAS/WWRP and interest of CBS. Representation on the Scientific Steering Committee of the WWRP appears to be valuable and should be continued.

January 1999

Tony Quayle

Manager, MetData Services

Meteorological Service of New Zealand

16 December 1998

1.1 The extraordinary session of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS-Ext. (1998)) in October 1998 concluded that one or two consultants should be engaged to develop a methodology for assessing the availability of surface synoptic data before and after the adoption of Resolution 40.

1.2 Tony Quayle from Meteorological Service of New Zealand was chosen as the consultant and spent time working on the project both in Geneva, with the assistance of staff of the Secretariat, and in New Zealand. This report summarises his findings and proposes a methodology.

For the purposes of this report the following definitions have been adopted:

"data for global exchange" means SYNOP observations from the Regional Basic Synoptic Networks (RBSN) at the main synoptic hours of 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC.

"other" data means SYNOP observations from non-RBSN stations at the main synoptic hours, all SYNOPs at intermediate hours (0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC) and hourly SYNOPs.

"additional" data is a subset of the "other" data, and comprises SYNOP observations that have been identified by Members in the Catalogue of Additional Data and Products. Such identification is only applicable after the adoption of Resolution 40.

3.1 WMO already co-ordinates two major monitoring exercises: the Annual Global Monitoring, known as the "AGM", and the Special MTN (Main Telecommunications Network) Monitoring ("SMM"), but these are presently limited to monitoring data exchanges at the four main synoptic hours (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC).

3.2 The AGM, conducted every October, is confined to "data for global exchange" - reports from the RBSN at the four main synoptic hours. While it effectively records trends in the volume of that data, it does not cover the "other" data (including "additional" data) that is the subject of this exercise. Also, the AGM process requires substantial input from individual Members and any extension to it is likely to meet with some resistance.

3.3 The SMM, which is currently based on monitoring of data flows at three MTN centres – Algiers, Offenbach and Tokyo – was trialled in 1996 and became fully operational in 1997. It is more comprehensive than the AGM and has the potential to be extended to provide the sort of information that is needed to assess changes in the availability of both "data for global exchange" and "other" data. At present, however, the SMM is limited to the four main synoptic hours, and although the 1998 monitoring covered all observations received at the main synoptic hours (i.e., "data for global exchange", and "other" data at these times) the 1996 and 1997 monitoring covered just the RBSN observations. The SMM is currently done three times a year, in April, July and October (coinciding with the AGM). From 1999 it will be extended to four times a year, with the addition of a monitoring period in February.

3.4 As well, global monitoring centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre of Environment Canada, and Meteo France, monitor the volumes and quality of the data they ingest, and provide regular monitoring reports to WMO. Although these reports provide valuable information on changes in the volumes of data the centres utilised, there is no easy way of determining the source of the data, or identifying the reasons for any changes. For example, it is not possible to determine how much data was obtained by way of "international exchange without specific agreements" and how much was by "exchange under bilateral or other agreements". Similarly, changes in the volume of observations recorded may reflect changes in the centres’ assimilation processes rather than the amount of data available.

3.5 In summary, it was found that none of the existing monitoring data can provide the information necessary to identify trends in data availability before and after the adoption of Resolution 40. However, the SMM does have the potential to provide such information in the future.

The proposed methodology is divided into two phases:

Phase I. The retrieval of historic information from Members’ archives to establish trends in the volume of data exchanged from 1992 until 1999,

followed by

Phase II. An expanded version of the SMM, with "data for global exchange" and "other" (including "additional") data volumes measured at all hours (this is currently only done for the four main synoptic hours).

4.1.1 The only viable method of assessing the volumes of "data for global exchange" and "other" data exchanged before the adoption of Resolution 40, and up until the introduction of a routine, ongoing monitoring scheme that will provide the information required, will be to:

Invite Members, who are using global data assimilation, to extract from their archives statistics on all SYNOPs filed for the period 1 – 15 October each year from 1992 through to 1999.

4.1.2 The retrieved SYNOPs should be categorised and counted as either "data for global exchange" or "other" data according to the definitions in Section 2 of this report. It should be noted, of course, that the particular subset of "other" data now known as "additional" data did not exist prior to Resolution 40.

4.1.3 Data from the retrievals should be collated and presented in the same formats as the SMM information currently available on the WMO FTP Server (for example, see files RSY98AF.DBF and RSY98AF.TXT).

4.1.4 Because there may be some uncertainties about the completeness of retrievals of archived data, statistics for RBSN stations at main synoptic hours should be compared with corresponding AGM statistics and, where available, the SMM statistics, to ensure that there is an acceptable degree of consistency between the two. In addition, it would be possible to make comparisons between the retrieved "data for global exchange" and "other" data at the main synoptic hours in October 1998, and the more comprehensive SMM results available for that month.

4.1.5 Informal advice from one of the global centres is that the work involved in retrieving and analysing the data would be very considerable, though manageable. To minimise the burden of final analysis, it may be desirable to limit the total number of centres who accept the invitation to retrieve information.

4.1.6 In terms of timing, it would be desirable for the data up to and including 1-15 October 1999 to be available in time for analysis along with the first statistics from the proposed enhanced SMM, and for the results to be available to Members early in 2000.

4.2.1 The requirement of compiling information on whether or not there have been any changes in the volume of data exchanged since the adoption of Resolution 40, could perhaps be met by analysing the results obtainable through the exercise proposed as Phase I. However, ongoing monitoring of these data flows will also be required. The most effective way of achieving this will be to expand the Special MTN Monitoring (SMM) to record all SYNOP traffic - not just at the four main synoptic hours, but intermediate and hourly SYNOPs as well.

4.2.2 As in Phase I, the results should be categorised and counted as follows:

1. "data for global exchange"
2. "other" data in total
3. "additional" data as a separately identified subset of "other" data

4.2.3 The most effective way of establishing this grouping will be by identifying observations according to the Distribution Type/Level Designator ("ii") in their bulletin headers. "Data for global exchange", comprising SYNOPs from RBSN stations at main reporting times, will have "ii" in the range 1 – 19, while bulletins of "other" observations will have "ii" of 20 or higher.

4.2.4 The "additional" data subset should be identified by checking the "other" observations recorded during Phase II, against bulletins of observations identified by Members in the Catalogue of Additional Data and Products corresponding to the time of the monitoring.

4.2.5 Unfortunately, there appear to be some existing inaccuracies or inconsistencies in the application of "ii" in the bulletin headers. To minimise the risk of the monitoring results being distorted by this problem, CBS could as a matter of some urgency request Members to ensure that their bulletin headers are correct before the enhanced SMM commences.

4.2.6 To avoid the risk of missing late SYNOPs, there should be no cut-off times for the receipt of observations during this monitoring; all SYNOPs received during the 15 day monitoring period should be recorded.

4.2.7 The enhanced SMM would involve some significant implementation effort for the MTN centres involved, and there would also be in increase the amount of analysis required. However, it is expected that these processes could be automated to a large extent, and the exercise would only need to be undertaken once a year, preferably in October to enable some benchmarking against the AGM. Hopefully, it will not be necessary to involve more MTN centres in the SMM exercise, since a comparison between the SMM and AGM results indicates that the overall volume of SYNOPs recorded by the two methods is comparable. What is not so clear is whether the three MTN centres currently involved will record a sufficiently large sample of intermediate and hourly SYNOPs.

4.2.8 If the proposed ongoing monitoring method is adopted, it is recommended that it be implemented for the October 1999 SMM.

5.1 It is proposed that the same presentation formats as currently used for the AGM and SMM results be adopted for this enhanced monitoring. This should include:

• Time series plots for each region (as per Table 1 of the AGM results).
• For Phase I the results from each individual centre’s retrieval of archived data should be presented, to establish whether there are any gross differences between centres’ results.
• Results for individual Members should be available for examination if required. These would reveal time trends in availability by country.
• Correlation of the Phase I retrieved data for October 1999, and October 1998 data for the main synoptic hours only, with the SMM results for the same periods to establish a linkage between the two methods. A further archive retrieval in October 2000, to provide overlapping statistics for Phase I and Phase II, is strongly recommended.

6.1 It must be recognised that, although both Phases of this exercise will involve comprehensive monitoring, it cannot be certain that all data flows will be captured, and the results will represent a statistical sample, albeit a very large one.

6.2 Also, while the results should present a very clear picture of trends in data availability at MTN and global centres, they will not reveal the reasons for the changes, and the changes will not necessarily be attributable to Resolution 40.

6.3 Besides the impact of Resolution 40, other factors that could affect volumes include changes in observing networks, regional differences or special economic considerations. The time series of data availability over 1992 to 1999 from individual Members will highlight those for which any changes were the greatest. Those Members with significant changes in data availability should be invited to comment on the reasons. Distinguishing between the relative impacts of Resolution 40 and other factors can subsequently only be done subjectively and will inevitably be a matter of interpretation.

7.1 None of the existing monitoring information available to the Secretariat and Members is suitable for assessing changes in the availability of surface synoptic data since the adoption of Resolution 40. However, by using historical information from Members’ archives, and enhancing an existing monitoring system, it would be possible to produce such information.

7.2 Historical information on the availability of surface observational data, from prior to the adoption of Resolution 40 through until the introduction of an enhanced form of the SMM would require the co-operation of Members using global data assimilation, to retrieve from their archives all SYNOP observations receiving during the annual 1 – 15 October monitoring periods over a number of years.

7.3 To obtain such information on an ongoing basis would require an extension of the existing SMM to measure total SYNOP availability – not just at the main synoptic hours, but at all hours.

7.4 Implementing these methods would require significant effort by the Secretariat and some Members in setting up the new monitoring routines and extracting historical data from archives. However, it is expected that, after the initial effort of setting up the routines, much of the retrieval and processing could be automated.

ANNEX to paragraph 4.9

OPAG ON INTEGRATED OBSERVING SYSTEMS(OPAG/IOS)

Structure, tasks and deliverables

Expert Team on Observational Data Requirements and Redesign of the GOS

Update and document observational data requirements of the WWW, other WMO and international programs supported by WMO and to assess the capability of both surface-based and space-based systems to meet them;

Continue Rolling Requirements Review to update the Statement of Guidance comparing observational requirements with expected space- and surface-based systems performances to include additional application areas (atmospheric chemistry, marine meteorology and aeronautical meteorology);

Deliverable: An updated and expanded Statement of Guidance containing the observing system capabilities for meeting user requirements in several applications areas. An initial progress report to the OPAG/IOS chair timely for consideration by next session of the AWG and an expanded progress report for CBS-XII. Thereafter updated for subsequent meetings of CBS.

Prepare and maintain data base of surface-based and space-based observing systems (including radar and remote sensing systems) that are candidate components of the future composite Global Observing System;

Assess the capabilities of new observing systems and improvements to existing systems that are candidates for redesign of the GOS, in particular with a view to reducing deficiencies in the existing GOS;

Review deficiencies in the existing GOS, in terms of coverage, performance and cost, that might be ameliorated by the greater/wider use of new or improved observing systems in combination. In part, this review will be conducted by monitoring results from regional studies and extending them to the broader global domain.

Deliverable: A report with preliminary recommendations for the use of new observing systems or improvements of existing ones that are candidates for the GOS. An initial progress report to the OPAG/IOS chair timely for consideration by next session of the AWG, with the report containing preliminary recommendations for CBS-XII.

Prepare and maintain reviews of impact assessments conducted by GDPS and other NWP centers under programs activities, such as NAOS, COSNA and EUCOS, that are relevant to the design and implementation of composite observing systems;

Study hypothetical changes to the GOS, prepare a prioritized list of proposals that are both practicable and amenable to testing and suggest mechanisms for testing them;

Liaise with programs, such as the NAOS, COSNA and EUCOS, and specialist groups such as the ACC, DBCP, CEOS, CGMS and the AMDAR panel, when necessary; experts from other TCs and RAs will be invited as necessary.

On the basis of the above actions, develop criteria for dealing with redesign issues of the GOS paying particular attention to developing countries and the Southern Hemisphere. Issues of costing, joint funding and management of the GOS should be addressed.

Deliverable: An initial progress report to the OPAG/IOS chair timely for consideration by next session of the AWG and a second progress report to CBS-XII. The final proposal of the strategy and an associated phased implementation program is expected at CBS-Ext (2002).

Prepare a report on impact and benefits of satellite data in NWP (linked to OSSEs);

Deliverable: An initial progress report on impact and benefits of satellite data in NWP which also includes other application areas beyond NWP (nowcasting, synoptic meteorology, hydrology and agrometeorology) to the OPAG/IOS chair for consideration by next session of the AWG and a second progress report to CBS-XII.

Follow-up the strategy to improved satellite systems utilization;

Develop action plan and recommendations based on questionnaires on use of satellite data and products; in cooperation with the OPAG on PWS, prepare plan for increased awareness of utilization of satellite data and products in NMHS;

Prepare a report on the impact of the virtual laboratory on education and training in satellite matters in RA III and RA IV;

Deliverable: A list of specific projects to implement the approved strategy and time schedule. An initial progress report to the OPAG/IOS chair timely for consideration by next session of the AWG, with a list of specific projects with suggested time schedule for CBS-XII.

Provide guidance on migration of low-cost satellite receiving stations to LRIT;

Deliverable: Recommended actions (including potential funding mechanism) to be distributed to WMO members. An initial progress report to the OPAG/IOS chair timely for consideration by next session of the AWG and list of actions to CBS-XII.

Report for CBS members on passive microwave sensors applications;

Deliverable: An initial progress report to the OPAG/IOS chair timely for consideration by next session of the AWG and a second progress report to CBS-XII. The final report is expected before CBS-Ext (2002).

Prepare and maintain reviews of observing systems that are being designed under the auspices of the GCOS (e.g., GUAN, GSN and space based observing systems (GOSSP and CGMS)) and provide feedback to Members in maintaining the quality of the networks;

Deliverable: Report for CBS members on the status of implementation of the GUAN, GSN and space-based observing system as it relates to GCOS requirements.

Review requirements for present weather from automatic weather stations for all WMO Programs and develop or refine, where necessary, quantitative definitions of weather phenomena for which observations are required.

Consider the use of water equivalent in mm/hr as a means of expressing the intensity of all types of precipitation rather than the subjectively determined terms of light, moderate, heavy and violent which significantly deviate for different climatic regions;

Make changes to the WaWa 4680 code in order to eliminate inconsistencies with other codes and to better reflect the capabilities of existing automatic weather stations;

Consider the use of the BUFR or other similar codes for automatic weather observing reports.

Deliverable: Reviewed requirements and amendments to relevant codes be submitted to CBS-II

Update regulatory and guidance material on the GOS and make recommendations for amendments; coordinate with CIMO and other bodies in matters of duplication and inconsistencies between the GOS, CIMO and other Guides and Manuals, and of the inclusion of regulatory material in the Manual on the GOS; incorporate the Statement of Guidance in the Guide on the GOS.

Deliverable: Amendments to the Manual on the GOS and to the Guide on the GOS be submitted for approval by CBS-XII.

OPAG on Integrated Observing Systems

Composition of the Teams

Chair: P. Menzel (USA)
A. Sharp (Australia)
H. Böttger (ECMWF)
J. Eyre or R. Saunders (UK)
F. Rabier (France)
Wenjian Zhang (China)
T. Schlatter (USA)
A. Simard (Canada)

Invited experts from other commissions and programmes as required

Chair: H.P. Roesly (Switzerland)
L. Spayd (USA)
N. Sato (Japan)
R. Bhatia (India)
V. Asmus (Russian Federation)
G. Bridge (EUMETSAT)
W. Benesch (Germany)
Jianming Xu (China)
G. Kinyodah (Kenya)
V. Castro (Costa Rica)
J. Wilson ( Australia)
W. Kusch (Germany), OPAG/ PWS

Chair: (to be nominated)
R. Campbell (Canada)
P. de Vries (The Netherlands)
R. Canterford (Australia)

A.P.T. Baede (The Netherlands)
J. Schmetz (EUMETSAT)

Ex-officio members are the regional rapporteurs on the GOS as follows:

Chair: H. Daan (The Netherlands)
M. Saloum (Niger)
Yongqing Chen (China)
L. Farias (Chile)
G. Vega (Costa-Rica)
T. Hart (Australia)

Invited experts from satellite operators. Additional members will be invited when the implementation issues to be addressed are known.

Rapporteur on regulatory material

Consultant

Plan and co-ordinate analyses of the NWP verification exchanged by GDPS and use them as appropriate to develop methods and procedures for assessing planned and unplanned changes to the GOS on the operation of the GDPS.

Deliverables: Report on how analyses of NWP verification can be used to assess positive and negative impact of changes to the observing system; A set of guidelines to be used where action is required to minimize the impact of a loss of observations on the operation of the GDPS.

Monitor the implementation of experimental scores for long-range forecasts to be exchanged in the first place and further develop and recommend updates of the verification system for long-range forecasts.

The team should start developing, on an experimental basis, a system to exchange verification scores for long-range forecasts and sort out technical details. It will use as a basis the Core Standardized Verification System for long-range forecasts as proposed jointly by CAS, CCl and CBS experts. As this evolves with time, it will require further consultation with CAS and CCl.

Deliverables: A co-ordinated short-term action plan; Progress report on the action plan that will include some experimental verification results and recommendations for future work.

Develop in collaboration with CTBTO arrangements to provide the RSMC gridded meteorological model data to CTBTO for use in house capability for transport modelling;

Develop in collaboration with CTBTO arrangements for prevision of transport model products from RSMCS with activity specialization in EER;

Evaluate the results of exercises of emergency response arrangements, procedures and standards;

Specify in consultation with UNEP products and procedures to be established for chemical incidents that would provide best response in a co-ordinated way;

Develop procedures to integrate NMCs and, where appropriate, backup services by RSMCs in a co-ordinated alert network for activation in case of chemical incidents or forest fires;

Specify products and procedures to be established for giving best response meteorological support services provided by GDPS to the centres to the UN humanitarian missions in a co-ordinated way through UN/OCHA;

Review and fine-tune methods used in the standardized data quality monitoring and verification of NWP products and the exchange of results. It is becoming more and more important in view of the assimilation of precipitation data in NWP, and the verification of weather elements. It would allow identifying those observing sites that have problems and need action. With the automation of the observing systems, there has been in some cases deterioration of the quality of precipitation data.

Deliverable: Feasibility study to add quality control of precipitation to existing monitoring of land surface stations.

Review and report on uses made of various workstations in NMHSs including such items as the costs, software and support. Identify areas of potential collaboration and standardization.

Develop the capabilities of the GDPS to fulfil Members existing and newly emerging requirements by coordinating the development of training material and organizing workshop/training seminars on the application and use of GDPS outputs including atmospheric model transport products:

Review Ensemble Prediction System operated by GDPS centres with a view to providing recommendations on products, guidance material on the interpretation and potential use by NMHSs in various activities including severe weather warnings amongst others.

Deliverables: Identification of Members’ emerging requirements for applications and use of GDPS outputs (including atmospheric transport products, long-range forecasts, severe weather, ensemble forecasting); Determine how GDPS centres can best contribute to fulfil emerging requirements; Identify needs for workshop/ training.

Note: Following the workshop on long-range forecast, there may be a need for an additional expert team to deal with the outcome of the workshop.

OPAG on Data Processing and Forecast Systems

Chair: T. Hart (Australia)
G. Verner (Canada)
M. Bader (UK)
N. Mannoji (Japan)
Expert from NCEP (USA)
B. Lacroix (France)
Expert from ECMWF (ECMWF)

Chair: F. Lalaurette (ECMWF)
R. Verret (Canada)
Expert from UK (UK)
S. Power (Australia)
Expert from Japan (Japan)
Expert from NCEP (USA)
Weijing Li (China)

Chair: P. Chen (Canada)
R. Draxler (USA)
D.A Forrester (UK)
P. Stewart (Australia)
F. Chavaux (France)
Expert from South Africa (South Africa)
V. Shershakov (Russian Federation)
T. Iwasaki (Japan)
Dehui Chen (China)
I. Jacobsen (Germany)

Chair: N. Sato (Japan)
I. Gitonga (Kenya)
M. Garcia (Argentina)
G. Verner (Canada)
B. Sumner (Australia)
B. Richter (Germany)

L. Jones (UK)

Ex-officio members are the regional rapporteurs on the GDPS as follows:

Chair: A. Simard (Canada)
A. Chetifi (Tunisia)
Woo-Jin Lee (Republic of Korea)
R. Vinas (Venezuela)
Tan Hui Sian (Singapore)
F. Chavaux (France)

Additional members will be designated when the implementation issues to be addressed are known.

Monitor the operational information flow in relation to the GTS and further develop operational information exchange procedures with a view to improved WWW operation, specially the GTS, including:

Data collection and distribution (updating abbreviated headings tables);

Routing and traffic management for the exchange of observational data and processed products (development of detailed routing plans);

Procedures for exchanging information in the form of bulletins and files (file naming, FTP flow between centres);

Evaluation of metadata standards;

Co-ordinate and further develop recommended practices and guidance on the management of and access to operational information related to WWW information exchange, specially to the GTS operation (Abbreviated Heading tables, catalogue of bulletins and files, routing directories, etc);

Analyse the results of the survey on codes with a view to proposing a strategy for reducing the number of codes;

Maintain and further develop code tables so they meet the requirements of all Members most efficiently, including AWS reporting;

Develop standard data descriptor sequences (templates) for exchange of data encoded in all traditional character formats in BUFR and CREX. Invite Members to participate in the experimental exchange of such data on a bilateral basis;

Update the Manual on Codes, as required.

Develop Propose a standard data format for exchange of imagery and other satellite products;

Further develop GRIB-2;

Investigate how encoding/decoding software for BUFR/CREX and the new edition of GRIB could be developed and maintained so as to facilitate the wider use of these data representation codes;

Further develop metadata standards;

Further develop recommended procedures and technical guidance material for the implementation, use and application of TCP/IP based services in the GTS;

Develop recommended practices and technical guidance material for the implementation of data communication facilities (GTS and Internet) at WWW centres, including security aspects, with a view to ensuring efficient and safe operations of information systems;

Advise on the Year 2000 problem related to WWW operational systems, including exchange of information and compliance testing, with respect to GTS and data management facilities;

Update the Guide on WWW Data Management while reorganizing it into the proposed outline for the WMO Guide on Data Management;

Determine the volume and timeliness requirements for the data and products to be exchanged on the GTS and other telecommunications systems used to meet requirements of WMO Programmes;

Develop and consolidate monitoring and follow-up procedures for the production, collection, distribution and exchange of information in the WWW, in co-ordination with the other OPAGs and other technical commissions, as appropriate;

Develop a project for an improved MTN, including supported applications, data transport functions, responsibilities of MTN centres, interfaces and gateways between the MTN and RMTNs, and administrative aspects, with a view to its approval by CBS-XII in 2000 and implementation by 2002.

Provide guidance on technical, operational and administrative/financial aspects of telecommunication techniques and services for WWW operations, specially for the implementation of the GTS (in particular for RMTNs), including dedicated and public services (e.g. satellite-based telecommunications, managed data-communication network services, ISDN, the Internet), including informing members of relevant developments in ITU and ISO;

Develop a strategic overview of integrated information systems and services; develop an outline and vision for the WMO Data Management Plan;

Review and revise as necessary the DDBs concept in light of the evolution of user requirements, the growing use of the Internet and the implementation of TCP/IP on the GTS;

Review the structure and the operational organization of the GTS to take benefit from data-communication techniques and telecommunications services, with a view to meeting cost-effectively WWW requirements for real-time operational data exchange, including satellite data, and other WMO information exchange requirements as feasible;

Advise on WMO training materials, seminars and workshops on telecommunication, data base and data management techniques and operations;

Update relevant regulatory and guidance material;

Develop a Guide on Internet Practices. The guide should include advice on what data to put on servers, how the data should be named or described, how it should be accessed, and how the server and the data it contains can be protected from unauthorised use. Expertise of the team to be drawn from telecommunications, public weather services and data processing, other technical commissions should also be invited to nominate representatives to this group as appropriate.

Keep under review allocations of radio-frequency bands and assignments of radio-frequencies to meteorological activities for operational requirements (telecommunications, instruments, sensors, etc.) and research purposes, in coordination with other Technical Commissions;

Coordinate with WMO Members, with the assistance of the WMO Secretariat, to:

1. ensure the proper notification and assignment of frequencies used for meteorological purpose;

2. determine their future use of the radio spectrum for meteorological purpose;

Keep abreast of the activities of the Radio communication Sector (ITU-R) of the International Telecommunication Union, and in particular of the Radio communication Study Groups, on frequency matters pertaining to meteorological activities, and assist the WMO Secretariat in its participation in ITU-R work;

Prepare and coordinate proposals and advice to WMO Members on radio-regulation matters pertaining to meteorological activities with a view to ITU Radio communication Study Groups, Radio communication Assembly, World Radio communication Conferences and related regional/global preparatory meetings;

Facilitate the coordination between WMO Members for the use of frequency bands allocated to meteorological activities with respect to:

1. Coordination of frequency use/assignments between countries;
2. Coordination of frequency use/assignments between various radio communication services (e.g. meteorological aids and DCPs) sharing the same band.

Facilitate the coordination of WMO with other international organizations which address radio-spectrum planning, including specialized organizations (e.g. CGMS, SFCG) and regional telecommunication organizations (e.g. CEPT, CITEL, APT)

Assist WMO Members, upon request, in the ITU coordination procedure of frequency assignment for radio communication systems sharing a frequency band with meteorological radio communication systems.

OPAG on Information Systems and Services (OPAG/ISS)

Ex-officio members are the regional co-ordinators/rapporteurs on the GTS as follows:

Chair: M. Popova-Sapareva (Bulgaria)
M. Sonko (Senegal)
A. Gusev (Russia)
J. Mauro de Rezende (Brazil)
J. Fenix (USA)
M. Hassett (Australia)
A. McIlveen (UK)

Two additional experts:

P. Shi (China)
B. Hetta (Egypt)

Ex-officio members are the regional rapporteurs on Data Management as follows:

Chair: C. Dey (USA)
G.R. Shayo (Tanzania)
M. Sato (Japan)
E. Grammelsbacher (Brazil)
E. Young (USA)
I. Zahumenský (Slovakia)

Two additional experts:

M. Ceron (France)
R. Mailhot (Canada)

Two additional members, as capacity building measure:

T. Kougbada (Togo)
Nguyen Van Tuyen, (Vietnam)

Representatives of International Organizations (not supported by WMO):

J. Hennessy, (ECMWF)
S. Elliott (EUMETSAT)
R. Keeley (IOC)
O. Turpeinen (ICAO)

Chair: C. Dey (USA)
J. Böttcher (Germany)
C. Sanders (Australia)
K. Kashiwagi (Japan)
J. Hennessy (ECMWF)
M. Ceron (France)
R. Mailhot (Canada)
R. Keeley (IOC)
O. Turpeinen (ICAO)

Chair: M. Hassett (Australia)
H. Ichijo (Japan)
R. Stephens (UK)
R. Giraud (France)
D. Starosta (USA)
I. Glaser (Germany)

Chair: S. Noyes (UK)
H. Diamond (USA)
J. Nash (UK), OPAG/IOS
Expert from the OPAG/DPFS
Neil Gordon (New Zealand), OPAG/PWS

Chair: K. Kashiwagi (Japan)
J. Clochard (France)
H. Müller (Switzerland)
B. Sumner (Australia)

Working mode: correspondence

Rapporteur on requirements for information systems and services

T.I.J. Potgieter (South Africa)

Expert Team on quantity monitoring of WWW

Chair: B. Sumner (Australia)
L. Bezruk (Russian Federation)
P. R. Rao (India)
K-H. Pollowy (Germany)

Chair: A. McIlveen (UK)
M. Hassett (Australia)
H. Ichijo (Japan)
J. Onyango Abong'o (Kenya)
J. Mauro De Rezende (Brazil)
J. Fenix or L. Irvine (USA) (to be clarified)

Working mode: Essentially by correspondence; strategic options should be developed by a consultant/seconded expert; the results should be reviewed through work by correspondence or at a meeting (possibly combined with the meeting of the ET on Communications Systems and Techniques) if funding is available.

Chair: G. Love (Australia)
G. Rodriguez Bastos (Argentina)
Jixin Yu (China)
K. Alder (New Zealand)
R. Stanek (Germany)
A. Frolov Russian Federation
T. Tsui (USA)
T.I.J. Potgieter (South Africa)

Chair: F. Requena (Argentina)
Boon-Yin Lee (Hong Kong, China)
R. Giraud (France)
J. Fenix, (USA)
E. de Coning (South Africa)

Working mode: 1 meeting; a paper should be developed by a consultant/seconded expert as input to this meeting; the working results should be available timely enough for a CBS report to EC in 2000.

Core members:

Chair: H. Richner (Switzerland)
D. Herrmann (Australia)
R. Wolf (EUMETSAT)
K. Naganuma (Japan)
J. Nash (UK)
R. Barth (USA)
A. Nalbandian (ITU-R)

Other members:

P. Plathan (Finland) (Radiosondes)
I. Ikkonen (Finland) (Radiosondes)
B. Beringuer (France) (Radars and Radiosondes)
G. Rochard (France) (Spaceborne remote sensing)
M. Paese (USA) (Radiosondes)

Investigate and document, with the other relevant OPAGs, the particular technical requirements of data and products to support Public Weather Services;

Develop guidelines and training material for developing countries on graphical presentation (design, contents, etc.) and modules of graphical educational material;

Prepare recommendations on standardized verification techniques for public warnings and forecasts;

Prepare guidelines on technical and user-oriented verification mechanisms including measures of overall satisfaction with the service.

Complete the preparation and publication of the expanded Guide to Public Weather Services Practices;

Complete the evaluation and the analysis of the Questionnaire on PWS and publish the results;

Investigate the formal and informal relationships which NMHSs have established with emergency management organizations and develop guidelines for "best practice";

Advise on roving seminars and create syllabi for national PWS training programmes based on WMO training programmes for RMTCs;

Contribute to preparation and delivery of at least one seminar/workshop in each Region on methods of working with the government, media, and key recipients of Public Weather Services to enhance the visibility of the NMHSs;

Contribute to preparation and delivery of at least one seminar/workshop in each Region on methods of improving Public Weather Products and Services to meet user requirements;

Establish a mechanism for dealing promptly with issues of consistency between official warnings and information disseminated by the international media;

Provide guidance to further strengthen links and on establishing a mechanism for on-going dialogue between NMHSs and both national and international media bodies with a focus on ensuring acknowledgement of the role of NMHSs in providing data and products on which forecasts are based.

Develop a methodology for international exchange of NMHS forecasts for the public as part of efforts to enhance visibility of NMHS;

Develop a methodology for cross-border exchange of warnings;

OPAG on Public Weather Services (OPAG/PWS)

Chair: K. O'Loughlin (Australia)
N. Reed (UK)
N. Gordon (New Zealand)
W. Kusch (Germany)
J. Shaykewich (Canada)
S. Shongwe (Swaziland)
Boon Ying Lee (Hong Kong, China)

Additional experts may be invited to serve on the team as required.

Ex-officio members are regional rapporteurs on PWS as follows:

Chair: K. Essendi (Kenya)
E. de Coning (South Africa)
A. Lyakhov (Russian Federation)
J. Afonso (Argentina)
I. Dutra (Uruguay)
M. Sanchez (Costa Rica)
K. O'Loughlin (Australia)
I. Veloroso (Philippines)
W. Kusch (Germany)

Additional members will be invited when the issues to be addressed are known.

Chair: G. Fleming (Ireland)
L. Saukkonen (Finland)
E. Lai (Hong Kong, China)
N. Cutler (Canada)
S. Muchemi Kenya)
Expert from (Fiji)
Expert from (Trinidad & Tobago)

Other experts may be invited to assist the team as necessary.

Chair: Xiaofeng Xu (China)
J. Desmarais (Canada)
E. de Coning (South Africa)
I. Benech (France)
R. Falls (Australia)

Working mode: 1 meeting (2000)

1. Infrastructure requirements for operational generation of long-range forecasts;

2. Status of products and needs to disseminate research and experimental long-range forecasts;

3. Verification systems for long-range forecasts;

4. Long-range forecast products required as input for the provision of long-range weather and climate services;

5. Guidance on delivery and reception systems for long-range forecasts products;

6. Guidance on interpretation and use of long-range forecast products;

7. Guidance on training activities.

The following material reviews activities in the development of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) and in particular WMO's role. Discussions for IGOS, originated at a Plenary Meeting of the Committee for Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) in 1995. Since 1995, there has been an evolution of the Strategy from a CEOS-only initiative to that of a partnership which includes international, regional and national organisations with responsibilities for providing in-situ observations, space agencies, science funding agencies and agencies with operational responsibilities. In October 1998, the WMO Secretary-General wrote and confirmed WMO's participation in the IGOS Partnership. There are biannual Partners Meetings to be held concurrent to CEOS Plenary and Sponsors Group for the Global Observing Systems Meetings. The 2nd IGOS Partnership Meeting was held in Bangalore, India during the CEOS Plenary in November 1998. The next meeting will be in Rome, Italy during the Sponsors Group Meeting in June 1999.

National and international organisations are considering how to derive greater benefit from both operating and planned observing systems, in support of increasing applications of global Earth observations. This assessment is occurring in an environment that demands adoption of performance measures congruent with agency needs for continuous improvement. The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and the International Group of Funding Agencies for global change research (IGFA), with other organisations, have initiated and participated in international discussions with the aim of outlining possible ways to improve the integration of global observation activities.

One of the prime drivers behind the current discussion is the general acceptance that no single nation can satisfy all of its observation requirements. The need for co-operation between data-provider agencies also arises from the fact that contemporary data products often require the integration of multiple observations from multiple sources. The scarcity of financial resources is yet another compelling reason for improved co-operation.

An Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) should be the joint product of all agencies involved in the collection and analysis of both space-based and in-situ data. For an IGOS to be successful, agencies must recognise and mutually support integration of the roles of partner organisations. Discussions on the concept of an IGOS have highlighted the need for better agency interactions, both at the national and the international level. A key characteristic will be the achievement of outcomes that are beyond the present capabilities of existing observing systems. An IGOS will provide an overarching strategy for observations to allow organisations involved in the collection of data to extend their contribution, and assist user groups requiring information from the systems to specify their requirements in a synergistic way. An IGOS must build upon the strategies of existing international global observation programs. It should also build upon current achievements, with additional efforts being directed to focus on those areas where satisfactory international arrangements and structures do not currently exist. A successful IGOS will help nations make better decisions in the allocation of resources to meet their own priorities, by taking advantage of better international collaboration and co-operation.

In discussions since late 1995, CEOS has appropriately focussed its attention on the space component of an IGOS. However, it recognises that an IGOS, by its very nature, must incorporate user requirements for all sources of Earth observation data. IGFA has recognised the importance of adequate spatial and temporal resolution in global observations for global change research to facilitate improvements to the prediction of global change and to the assessment of impacts and mitigation/adaptation strategies.

A key to the initiation of activities in support of the goals of an IGOS will be the commitment of agencies with responsibilities for space-based data acquisition programs to formulate a structured, coherent set of observational strategies, which transcend national requirements. Integration of relevant non-space data should be a key element in an IGOS. A full partnership is required that involves: (1) those international, regional and national organisations with responsibilities for providing in-situ observations, (2) space agencies, (3) science funding agencies, and (4) agencies with operational responsibilities is required.

The requirements definition for an IGOS must be user driven and address the political protocols and conventions, e.g. IPCC and Agenda 21, as well as programmatic support for specific research and operational activities. The detailed products and services to be developed within the concept of an IGOS will be in response to requirements specified by user communities.

CEOS, IGFA, and others have identified several high level attributes, or goals, that reflect the value of an IGOS which, whilst applicable to space data, are also valid for many aspects of non-space data:

Provide a framework for a coherent set of user requirements so that providers can respond to them;

Reduce unnecessary duplication of observations;

Assist in the improved allocation of resources between different types of observation systems;

Make possible the creation of improved higher level products by facilitating the integration of multiple data sets from different agencies and national and international organisations;

Provide a framework for decisions on continuity and spatial comprehensiveness of key observations;

Identify situations where existing international arrangements do not exist for the management and distribution of key global observations and products;

Assist in the transitioning of systems from research to operational status through improved international co-operation;

Provide improved understanding for Governments on the need for global observation through the presentation of an overarching view of current system capabilities and limitations.

During 1997 and 1998, IGFA joined CEOS in establishing a Strategic Implementation Team (SIT) to progress the development of an IGOS. As Associates of CEOS, a number of international scientific and intergovernmental user organisations, including the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), also participated in SIT. SIT's primary purpose was to agree on and implement a work program supported by participating organisations that reflects their capabilities, strengths and objectives, whilst demonstrating the enhanced benefits to be gained through mutual co-operation in the planning and use of integrated global observations. The work of the SIT would set the framework for the implementation of the responsibilities of each of the participating agencies.

Acutely aware that the IGOS concept does not belong to any single nation, agency or organisation, CEOS and IGFA has proposed an expanded partnership to evolve ideas on the definition, characterisation and vision of an IGOS. In particular, it is noteworthy that the Sponsors of the Global Observing Systems (G3OS, i.e. GCOS, GOOS and GTOS) at their first meeting, 13-14 January 1997, discussed the elements and issues that should be included in an integrated global observing strategy as an umbrella for the three Observing Systems and other international observation activities. WCRP, IGBP and other science and operational entities also have key roles to play. Integrated global observing can succeed only through the development of a synergistic partnership amongst funding agencies responsible for the provision of space-based and in-situ observations, user organisations, and user communities.

As an outcome of its first meeting in Irvine, California February 1997, the SIT, in consultation with G3OS scientists, agreed to pursue six prototype projects of international dimension designed to demonstrate the accrued value of working within an IGOS framework. While the initial projects vary greatly with regard to scope, they were selected on the basis of degree of political and societal importance, the feasibility of early and tangible accomplishments, the clear need for an integrated global strategic approach, and the existence of agencies willing to take the lead in developing a partnership.

The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment, for example, built upon a set of operational requirements well articulated within the global ocean community and has been developed as a high priority requirement of the GOOS/GCOS/WCRP Ocean Observations Panel for Climate. As a further example, the Upper Air Measurements Project was included in response to an invitation by the Director of the WMO World Weather Watch to the SIT. The project investigated the planned reduction in upper-air observations due to the termination of the OMEGA navigational system, and the means to increase the quantity and quality of observations through the use of new technology from satellites, aircraft and 4D assimilation methods.

With the establishment of the IGOS Partnership, CEOS, at its 12^th Plenary in November 1998, decided to refine further the scope and purpose of SIT. SIT will:

• implement and develop the IGOS space component, taking into account the need for incremental steps and the use of themes in this work,

• develop appropriate working relations with CEOS Members and IGOS Partners including the Global Observing Systems (GCOS, GOOS and GTOS) Space Panel (GOSSP), and

• together with the IGOS Partnership evaluate the lessons gained from the six prototype projects and to decide as soon as practicable their future role within IGOS.

CEOS also recognized GOSSP as an important contributor to the formulation of requirements for IGOS. GOSSP Sponsors (GCOS, GOOS and GTOS) were requested to expeditiously transmit GOSSP recommendations to CEOS. Future IGOS activities will occur at three levels: the upper or "political" level to include the IGOS Partners currently made up of six sponsoring entities (WMO, ICSU, UNEP, FAO, IOC and IGFA), five "user" programmes (IGBP, WCRP, GCOS, GOOS and GTOS) and CEOS. SIT will discuss and refine the six prototype projects during at its next meeting in San Diego, California in January 1999.

The 2^nd IGOS Partnership Meeting noted that CEOS would finalize its space component strategy, hopefully by November 1999 and thus one major element of the IGOS would be identified. Another major requirement is the strategic plan of the G3OS Sponsors group and the user community. Mr Robert Landis, representing WMO, agreed to co-ordinate with other users towards the development of a strategic plan for the IGOS in-situ component with a draft version being ready within one year.

IGOS is a strategy whereby a co-ordinated provider response is sought to a set of user requirements.

The user requirements will be those of the G3OS global observing systems (GCOS, GOOS and GTOS).

GOSSP will be the focal point for the formulation of requirements to which the space agencies will respond.

WMO is co-ordinating an effort with the other user communities in defining the in-situ component of IGOS.

WMO requirements that are non-G3OS, i.e. NWP, Nowcasting, Aeronautical Meteorology, Agro-meteorology, Hydrology, Marine Meteorology, etc., will not be considered within the space component of IGOS. At present IGOS has not explicitly recognized the role of WMO as the de facto core of an IGOS. WMO would need to commit itself to re-establishing a leadership role in order for this to become the case.