The TCP will continue to take advantage of scientific and technical developments to strengthen warnings and mitigation systems for tropical cyclone disasters. Further advance in meteorological satellite technology, the continuing developments in computers and electronics, in scientific knowledge and mathematical modelling of tropical cyclones as well as in international cooperation and other factors is expected to provide an incentive for continued improvements in tropical cyclone forecasts in various time scales.
Invariably, this is expected to lead to warnings with longer lead times and enhanced reliability. To this effect, special effort is being made to establish a storm surge project with the joint cooperation of the Inter-governmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and IHP/UNESCO, with a view towards reducing storm surge disasters particularly for the Bay of Bengal and the northern part of the Indian Ocean.
Combined with more effective awareness programmes, and simultaneous advances in risk evaluation, disaster prevention and other preparedness measures, such actions will ultimately result in the attainment of TCP's objective: to reduce loss of life and property caused by tropical cyclones to a minimum. Thus, in addition to its humanitarian goals, the TCP will help to pave the way for sustainable development.
The TCP will also continue to contribute in the work on developing a global culture of disaster prevention which is one of the goals of the ISDR for a safer world.
The TCP will likewise persist on developing experts through the conduct of global and regional training activities especially designed for forecasters. It's ultimate objective, to promote coordinated exchange of knowledge and proven methodology between Members with the particular goal of upgrading capabilities of tropical cyclone forecasting and warning services of NMHSs.
Cooperation with other organizations
TCP will continue to maintain cooperation and close collaboration with international and regional organizations such as , the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the ISDR Secretariat, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Mekong River Commission (MRC) and others on a variety of matters of common concern. The main items include ESCAP's co-sponsorship of the Typhoon Committee and the Panel on Tropical Cyclones, as well as the ISDR Secretariat's involvement in the disaster prevention and preparedness component of the TCP, in particular in the context of the ISDR (post-IDNDR).
As part of the long-established close working relationship between WMO and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a number of TC RSMCs and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres have also been designated as ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres (TCAC) by ICAP Regional Air Navigation Agreements. These centres provide specialized tropical cyclone warning services for the aviation community.
On a regional basis, WMO, through TCP, has fostered and will continue to maintain close collaboration and fruitful coordination with regional bodies concerned with disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation issues, in particular with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center of the Asian Institute of Technology, the South Asian Disaster Management Center (SADMC), the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme .
After tropical cyclone Nagis which hit Myarmar in 2008 and caused serious damage and heavy loss of lives, WMO, in consultation with UNESCO IOC, decided at its 60th Executive Council session in 2008 to establish a Storm Surge Watch Scheme in all five tropical cyclone basins by incorporating storm surge advisories into WMO RSMC tropical cyclone advisories.
Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)
The WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) is a joint project supported by WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) and Public Weather Service Programme (PWS). It is a collaborative effort with the THORPEX North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project.
The leading institution of teh TLFDP is Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA, with full involvement of East China Regional Meteorological Centre and RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre. The participation of other National & Regional Centers is also anticipated.
The TLFDP will develop a system able to collect, integrate and display real-time forecasting results for landfall typhoons, including their track, intensity, gale extent and rainstorm distributions, from various centers; develop and integrate techniques to evaluate accuracy of forecast for landfall location and time, gale distribution, and torrential rain; make comprehensive analyses of the forecasts and evaluate their reliability; and finally assess their social and economic impacts.
Severe Weather Forecast and Disaster Risk Reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP)
At its 12th session in 2008, the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee recommended to develop the Severe Weather Forecast and Disaster Risk Reduction Demonstration Project in South Pacific tropical cyclone basin. Thereafter in December 2008, a Regional Subproject Management Team (RSMT) for Region V was established to plan the project, to select the participating countries and NMHSs/Centres, to coordinate the implementation phase and, to arrange the evaluation of the project. The RSMT would report to the RA V/TCC, which would monitor the project progress and make recommendations for decision by the RA V or its president during the intersessional period, as appropriate.
The project aims mainly to, among others:
Remarkable progress has been made under the TCP in the transfer of technology through specialised training events, forecasting demonstration projects and publication of scientific guidance materials in combination with activities under the operational and technical plans of all the TC Regional Bodies.
The TCP sub-project on the combined effects of storm surges and river floods in low lying areas is designed to upgrade the national capability of storm surge mitigation in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea with emphasis on improving the national expertise for storm surge prediction.
Developed by WMO, the Management Overview of Flood Forecasting Systems (MOFFS) is a points scoring system which provides a measure of the effectiveness of performance of the forecasting system with respect to each forecast location and each major flood event, and summarises the results on a single sheet of paper. Adopted for use by all TC Regional Bodies, the MOFFS quickly highlights problem areas for appropriate remedial action.
Establishment of TC RSMCs
The Governments of Fiji, France, India, Japan and the U.S.A. have provided the regional centres designated as Regional/Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) with activity specialisation in tropical cyclones.
UNDP Inter-Country and Regional Projects
Invaluable support was provided by UNDP for the developing countries participating in the TCP. These Inter-country Projects includes those for the Typhoon Committee, Panel on Tropical Cyclones and RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee. These projects provided expert and consultancy services, equipment, fellowships and group training and support to TCDC arrangements which contributed directly to the improvement of the warning systems in the regions. These consequently led to improvements to tropical cyclone disaster mitigation arrangements which have substantially reduced the loss of life and property damage caused by cyclones and associated floods and storm surges.
Under the UNDP Regional Project for the improvement of the hurricane warning system in the English-speaking Caribbean countries (1987-1990), the hurricane surveillance radars in Barbados and Jamaica were refurbished and meteorological staff of Members of RA IV Hurricane Committee were trained.
Radars which are mainly used for tropical cyclone monitoring have been provided by by Australia for Fiji, including one for the regional centre and by Japan for Bangladesh and Pakistan. These radars had contributed substantially to the detection, monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones in the recipient countries.
In the 1980's the Typhoon Committee carried out the Typhoon Operational Experiment (TOPEX) to test the typhoon warning system under real typhoon conditions. The 3-year project produced a useful data set and enabled Typhoon Committee Members to greatly improve their forecasting ability and measures related to disaster preparedness.
Seven WMO International Workshops on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) have been held at four-yearly intervals since 1985. Each workshop served as a forum for the interaction between tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. It's objective was to encourage the application of research results to operational usage. Major outputs of these workshops were the publication of the books ``Global Guide to tropical Cyclone Forecasting`` and ``Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones` both of which are TCP projects.
Regional Computer Network
Under the guidance of TCP, all five TC Regional Bodies had established regional computer network projects to computerise operational data handling, processing and display for tropical cyclone and storm surge forecasting and warning which had markedly improved the warning systems in the regions.
The TCP Project to upgrade the Tropical Cyclone Warning System for the South-West Indian Ocean was classified as an IDNDR demonstration project.
Under the auspices of the Typhoon Committee, the field experiment phase of SPECTRUM (Special Experiment Concerning Typhoon Recurvature and Unusual Movement) was carried out by its Members in August and September 1980. It is the most comprehensive meteorological observation programme ever mounted to study typhoons in the western North Pacific. The data sets from the experiment were used in researches aimed at improving operational typhoon forecasting. These researches in turn resulted in the publication by TCP of a series of research papers and the conduct of four technical conferences organized by TCP for the Typhoon Committee. This experiment proved to be a wonderful example of international cooperation and coordination.
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