Regional Technical Conference on Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges world map
Programmes > WWW >TCP> Publications >

Regional Technical Conference on Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges

 

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

In response to wishes expressed by the Members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee and the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, a Regional Technical Conference on Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges was organized by WMO in Chiang Mai, Thailand from 13 to 17 November 2000. The object of the conference was to promote activities in tropical cyclone disaster mitigation of mutual interest to adjacent regional tropical cyclone bodies in Asia.

The technical conference hosted by the Thai Meteorological Department was attended by 73 participants from the thirteen Members of the Typhoon Committee (TC), six Members of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC), Australia, a number of universities and international organizations, representatives from the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), and Secretariats of WMO, ESCAP, TC and Technical Support Unit (TSU).

The five-day conference brought together a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone and storm surge operational and research experts mainly from the two TCP regional bodies which proved essential for networking and for triggering a chain reaction leading to a much greater awareness of the increasing disastrous effects of tropical cyclones and storm surges in the region. It further brought a new sense of urgency for an increase in cooperation not only at the regional level but also at the global level as well, to reduce the damage brought by these natural hazards.

The conference was divided into five topical sessions and featured a total of 43 presentations which dealt on almost all aspects related to tropical cyclones and storm surges allowing for an in-depth analyses and experience sharing, as well as in-depth updates on recent advances in forecasting these natural hazards. Key speakers included: Prof Johnny Chan (City University of Hong Kong), Dr Shishir K. Dube (Indian Institute of Technology), Dr Johannes Guddal (JCOMM), Prof Chen Lianshou (China), Prof M. Alimullah Miyan (South Asian Disaster Management Center) and Mr Robert L. Southern (Weather Associates).


A set of recommendations was formulated by the participants during a special half-day session on the last day of the conference. The recommendations focused on an expanded regional approach for sustained efforts in reducing the damaging effects of tropical cyclone and storm surges and a list of activities for consideration for future programmes of WMO.

PROGRAMME

Day 1: Monday 13 November 2000

Morning Session

Opening Ceremony

Coffee Break

Introduction and Working Arrangements Mr T. Damrak (TMD)

SESSION I: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

Co-Chair: Prof. Chen Lianshou (CAMS)

Rapporteur: Dr Carina G. Lao (PAGASA)

Operational Typhoon Forecasting - Current Practice and Scientific Problems in the Asia-Pacific Region

Regional Views from RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Mr T. Ueno (JMA)

Regional Views from RSMC-tropical cyclones New Delhi Mr S.R. Kalsi (IMD)

Lunch Break

Afternoon Session

Session I: (continuation)

Co-Chair: Prof. Chen Lianshou (CAMS)

Rapporteur: Mr Tatsuo Ueno (JMA)

 

Typhoon Warning System in Hong Kong Mr C.Y. Lam (HKO)

Typhoon Analysis Prediction System in KMA Dr H.S. Chung (KMA)

Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in China Mr Xu Yinglong (CMA)

Coffee Break

Ensemble Forecasting Dr J. Chan (CUHK)

A Tropical Cyclone Affecting Thailand in 1999 Dr P. Patvivatsiri (TMD)

Landfalling Tropical Cyclones near Hong Kong in 1999/2000 Dr C.M. Cheng (HKO)

GOOS, JCOMM and the Development of Operational Oceanography Dr V. Ryabinin (JCOMM)

 

Day 2: Tuesday 14 November 2000

Morning Session

SESSION I: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS (continuation)

Co-Chair: Dr Shisir K. Dube (IIT)

Rapporteur: Dr C.M. Cheng (HKO)

Status and Further Development in Implementation of Surge Dr J. Guddal (JCOMM)/

Forecasting for Viet Nam (A Pilot Project Designed Dr N.T. Tuong (HMS)

by the GOOS Coastal Module)

Achieving Robust Operational METOC Forecast Dr R. Beach (USN)

Research Activities on Tropical Cyclones in China Prof Chen Lianshou (CAMS)

Coffee Break

Modern Wind Wave and Storm Surge Forecasting Dr V. Ryabinin (JCOMM)

Numerical Modeling of Storm Surge in the Bay of Bengal/ Dr S.K. Dube (IIT)

Real Time Storm Surge Prediction System

Wave Forecasting Models Used at the MMS and their Mr A. Bahari (MMS)

Operational Status

Lunch Break

Afternoon Session

SESSION I: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS (continuation)

Co-Chair: Dr Johnny Chan (CUHK)

Rapporteur: Ms Efigenia Galang (TCS)

 

An Application of the Jelesnianski Tehnique to the Mr GHP Dharmaratna (DMSL)

East Coast of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Warning System in Cambodia Ms S. Vannareth (DMC)

Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge Warning Systems in the Ms E. Galang (TCS)

Typhoon Committee Region

Coffee Break

Case Study of Typhoon Prapiroon (0012) Dr Kang B.J. (SHMH)

A Case Study of a Storm Surge Event Mr D.C. Gupta (IMD)

Heavy Rain Associated with Typhoon "Sam" (9910) Mr Lao I.W. (SMG)

Topic Discussion

 

Day 3: Wednesday 15 November 2000

Morning Session

SESSION II: RESEARCH INITIATIVES/ACTIVITIES

Co-Chair: Dr Johannes Guddal (JCOMM)

Rapporteur: Dr Alimullah Miyan (SADMC)

Progress on Tropical Cyclone Prediction in the Asia-Pacific Region Dr J. Chan (CUHK)

Numerical Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Mr A. Murata (JMA)

Flood Forecasting and Warning System in Cambodia Mr Te Navuth (HRWD)

Coffee Break

An Integrated Regional Strategy in the Coming Century for Better Mr C. Ertuna (ESCAP)

Coordination of National and International Efforts on

Risk and Disaster Reduction

MM5 and GFDL Tropical Cyclone Initialization Dr H.J. Kwon (KU)

Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Activity Mr J. Weyman (NOAA)

Modern Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting Mr D. Vatvani (WLDH)

Topic II Discussion

Lunch Break

Afternoon Session

 

SESSION III: RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Co-Chair: Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry (TSU)

Rapporteur: Mr Bader Ali Badar Al-Rumhi (DCCAM)

 

Assessment of Risk and Vulnerability from Tropical Cyclones, Dr A. Miyan (SADMC)

Storm Surges and Floods

Assessment of Hazards from River and Combined Storm Mr P. Baddiley (BOM)

Surges and River Flooding

Typhoon VICKI (8707): A Tropical Cyclone Case Study Dr C.G. Lao (PAGASA)

Coffee Break

Numerical Simulation of Storm Surge in the Yangtze Mr Duan Y. H. (CMA)

River Estuary

A Landfalling 1999 Tropical Cyclone in Pakistan Mr U.H. Ghalib (TSU)

A Diagnostic Study of Tropical Storm Eve (9921) Mr T.T. Truc (HMD)

A Recent Storm Surge Event in Thailand Mr W. Kanbua (TMD)

Darwin Diagnostic Statement Mr R Southern (WA)

 

Day 4: Thursday 16 November 2000

Morning Session

SESSION III: RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (continuation)

Co-Chair: Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry (TSU)

Rapporteur: Mr Bader Ali Badar Al-Rumhi (DCCAM)

Application of Meteorological Radar in Storm Warning: Mr W. Khantiyanan (TMD)

A Case Study

Topic III Discussion

Coffee Break

 

SESSION IV: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, MANAGEMENT AND REDUCTION

Co-Chair: Mr Robert L. Southern (WA)

Rapporteur: Mr G.H.P. Dharmaratna (DMSL)

Public Information, Education and Tropical Cyclone Ms N. Lomarda (WMO)

Warning Dissemination

WMO's Role in Tropical Cyclone Disaster Mitigation Mr K. Abe (WMO)

Flood Management in Lao P.D.R. Mrs B. Oudomchit (DMH)

Cyclone Preparedness Programm (CPP) in Bangladesh Mr F. Wahab (CPP)

Lunch Break

Afternoon Session

Project on Storm Surge Disaster Reduction for the Northern Prof. S.K. Dube (IIT)

Part of the Indian Ocean

Disaster Management Training Needs Resulting from Mr K. Kishore (ADPC)

Extreme Climate Events

Topic IV Discussion

 

Day 5: Friday, 17 November 2000

SESSION V: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Co-Chair: Dr Roman L. Kintanar (TCS)

Rapporteur: Ms Nanette Lomarda (WMO)

RECOMMENDATIONS

ASSISTANCE (WMO AND OTHERS)

Seek private sector funding of essential equipment, e.g. Doppler radar, ocean buoys, high speed wind anemometer networks, etc.

It is recommended that urgent actions should be taken by WMO and ESCAP to develop assistance programmes to Member countries such as Cambodia, DPR of Korea and Lao PDR especially by way of training fellowships and attachments to advanced TCWCs and to the upgrading of their observation and telecommunication facilities.

It is recommended that WMO re-activate efforts to get funding from the UNDP in development projects of the Members. (VCP may be referred to here as well).

After the May 1999 tropical cyclone in Pakistan, Pakistan Meteorological Department feels a dire need of setting up of a separate unit dedicated to tropical storm studies. WMO’s Cooperation in this regard would be highly appreciated.

Noting the availability of a wide range of meteorological information on the internet which is relevant to tropical cyclone forecasting and warning operations, it is recommended that urgent assistance should be given to WMO Members with difficulties connecting to the GTS, to enable them to make good use of such information for their operations, through the provision of expert service and the supply of relevant hardware and customized software.

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

A greater emphasis is needed at Panel/Typhoon Committee meetings to foster the many facts/facets of disaster preparedness and management which contribute to reduction of vulnerability.

A recommendation on response system highlighting both top-down and bottom-up preparedness development is certainly needed.

Risk and vulnerability analysis should be vigorously pursued at national, provincial, district and community levels for ensuring appropriate preparedness.

IMPROVEMENT OF DISASTER DATA DOSSIERS

Every effort should to made to improve arrays of storm surge data dossiers.

Exchange of experiences in mitigation of disasters such as Typhoon and Storm Surge.

IMPROVEMENT OF WARNINGS/WARNING SYSTEMS

Need to continue to strengthen the emphasis on storm surge and rainfall component of cyclone hazard in warnings, public education, agency education etc as well as in the scientific development area.

Remove the bias on technical material in warnings aimed at the public; simplify and focus on ‘plain-language’ messages advising what action to take and when.

WMO Members are urged to pay close attention to the individual needs of the intended sectors to be served and to design their warning systems such that the required information is provided in a form appropriate to the circumstances of the recipients of warning messages and by a means commensurate with prevailing communication technology.

Storm surge warning should be highlighted in tropical cyclone forecast to modify public perception around severe wind in most cases.

Storm surge and cyclone warning system should be made user friendly and expressed in appropriate contents for different segments of users.

An inventory of end-to-end Early Warning Systems be built for the entire region. This will help in undertaking an assessment of the gaps that currently exist and in exploring opportunities for collaboration.

Recommend to supplement the forecasts with a measure of their uncertainty. All means to improve the wind and precipitation forecast.

INFORMATION SHARING

Enhancement of data exchange in the T Committee Region (TCR).

It is recommended that advanced centres should cooperate with operational warning centres in developing schemes to extract forecast track information from model runs and to disseminate it through the GTS and other means such as the internet.

It is recommended that information be exchanged on the specification of each model and to gather it together in order to disseminate it back to each member.

INTERNET

WMO to pursue actively the concept of a WMO-sponsored homepage on the Internet, to be operated by a center designated by WMO, to serve as official source of guidance material/advisories issued by the RSMCs and centers operated by Members.

WMO Members are encouraged to make innovative use of the homepage concept and develop new graphical products with a view to reaching out directly to a much wider audience.

INTERACTION/COLLABORATION/NETWORKING

Encourage the participation of the private sector or non-government representatives at meetings of the Typhoon Committee and the Panel on Tropical Cyclones.

Strengthen interaction between operational meteorologists and operational hydrologists, before, during and after events.

Continue to strengthen links between operational forecasting (cyclone, surge, flood) agencies and disaster management agencies.

Continue and strengthen multi-disciplinary involvement in meetings, workshops etc, with representatives from all areas of the disaster management, warning and response disciplines.

It is recommended that a network of Tropical Cyclones, Hydrological, Storm Surge and Disaster Preparedness experts be established in this technical conference.

Identify experts who are working in tropical cyclone and storm surge research and arrange them to visit countries who are interested in their expertise.

To raise the awareness of administrators and operational forecaster in the latest developments in research, Typhoon Committee meeting should invite more researchers to attend to present their latest research results.

Meteorological services should work closely with universities to develop forecast techniques or do research on topics that are relevant to their responsibilities.

Panel Members contact with RSMC may be further increased specially during the TC Season. This can be achieved by arranging telephonic discussion between senior Weather Forecasters of Concerned NMS and RSMCs.

Regional meetings should be continued to increase interaction and coordination among meteorologists, scientists, disaster managers and administrators. (+)

Disaster Management Bureau of Bangladesh Government, the focal point of disaster management activities in the country, may be invited to participate in regional technical conferences.

JCOMM AND WMO

Co-operation of the WMO TCP with JCOMM and Coastal GOOS (mainly through JCOMM) needs to be encouraged and extended, particularly in matters related to modelling and prediction of storm surges associated with tropical cyclones.

For the success of the application for funds it will be extremely important to ensure that the project is associated with such program of IOC and WMO as GOOS. (+)

PUBLIC EDUCATION/INFORMATION AND AWARENESS

Increase public awareness on the effects of TCs with strategies they could use and fully understand. Continuing programs along these lines should be under taken.

Need to consider management of forecast uncertainty information, e.g. identification of official source; conflicting forecasts to the users; raise understanding of user agencies; need of users for a "best" forecast by the prediction agencies.

Public Education: Concentrate/focus on education of disaster preparedness officials. Be prepared to provide awareness and educational material (particularly on what action to take) in the pre-impact phase (several days) to the threatened publics, at a time when the ‘target’ peoples are most receptive to learning.

Public awareness activities must be continued over time to keep the hazard perception of tropical cyclone alive for mitigation and preparedness measures.

Focussed public awareness campaign should be developed around inundation and flooding perception of cyclone/typhoon in the mind set of meteorologists, administrators, disaster managers and public.

REGIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE

Regional Technical Conference on TCs and Storm Surges be held regularly probably every three years.

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Further reduction of model mesh sites up to the scales at which non-hydrostatic effects become significant, particularly taking info account recent studies showing that the non-hydrostatic effects can be incorporated into an atmospheric GCM at a modest computational cost and as an add-on module.

Improvement of forcing data for Storm Surge Models in TCCR.

Scientists carry out the recent typhoon behaviors’ study according to the climate change or variation, if possible.

Shanghai Typhoon Institute open lab for Typhoon Research to accept research fellows.

Countries of the region having vulnerable and low-lying coastline should carry out studies to assess the impact of projected sea level Rise on Storm Surges. Countries concerned should also ensure that detailed and adequate onshore topography is produced to carry out impact assessment studies.

Since IIT Delhi has developed and validated location specific high resolution models of storm surge prediction for countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal. It is proposed that IIT Delhi would be willing to provide all technical assistance for implementation and testing the operational feasibility of the models for Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. Model may also be developed and implemented for Pakistan. Implementation of models would require token support from WMO for travel, perdiem and training the operational forecaster for a period of 4-6 weeks.

Most forecasts on tropical cyclones only focus on track and intensity. Some emphasis should be made to predict size changes.

It is necessary to consider and discuss changes in TC numbers occurrence area and influence.

STORM SURGE PROJECT

All ways to facilitate the approval of the Storm Surge Project and speed up the start of its implementation should be appreciated. In particular, it will be possible to use the mechanism of tendering, which helps in acquiring best combination of hardware, software, and training available in the market, at the best cost.

The Project of Storm Surges, which has been forwarded to the Panel Members for its endorsement by the respective governments, is a vital step forwards mitigation of disaster resulting from storm surges.

Either the PPM or the WMO may request the Panel members to accord its approval so that it is implemented with in the stipulated time.

TRAINING

Train staff in areas of weaknesses (i.e. modelling, forecasting, etc)

Conduct training on Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surges in the region.

WMO may consider making some support available for training of one meteorologist from the Bangladesh Meteorology Department at IIT, Delhi to learn about the storm surge simulation model and its adaptation for Bangladesh. Such effort may be supplemented by any required equipment support.

WMO may consider support to Bangladesh in adapting the storm surge modeling and forecasting being developed for India (Andra Pradesh) and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 
top
Top

line

© World Meteorological Organization, 7bis, avenue de la Paix, Case postale No. 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland - Tel.: +41(0)22 730 81 11 - Fax: +41(0)22 730 81 81 Contact us Copyright | Privacy | Scams | Disclaimer |  Guidelines | Procurement | UN System | Accessibility