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|August 2007||Downloads & Links|
WMO El Niño/La Niña update (July)
La Niña conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific during the first half of 2007.
Movement toward a typical La Niña condition was unsteady during the March-June period. A strong break in the pathway toward La Niña occurred during May and early June, increasing uncertainty over whether a La Niña event would develop in 2007.
Nonetheless, cool waters continue to be found beneath the central equatorial Pacific, and forecast models continue to predict at least some surface cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with most dynamical models continuing to strongly favour La Niña development.
While the fluctuating conditions in the equatorial Pacific over the last few months imply a possibility of neutral conditions continuing through the remainder of 2007, a La Niña event is considered, albeit slightly, more likely. Development of an El Niño in 2007 is considered very unlikely.
While it is possible that La Niña conditions may develop in the next one to three months, the timing and magnitude of such an event continue to be uncertain, with no indications of a particularly strong event in terms of sea-surface temperatures.
In view of the above assessment, regions typically impacted by La Niña events are advised to take note of the continued enhanced risk of such an event this year.
The situation in the tropical Pacific will therefore continue to be carefully monitored. More detailed interpretations of regional climate fluctuations will be generated routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
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