Climate Prediction Products

Image: Hydro-meteorological Centre of Russia

A climate prediction is a probabilistic statement about the future climate conditions on time scales ranging from seasons to decades. It is based on conditions that are known at present and assumptions about the physical processes that will determine future changes.

Climate predictions are generally the products most eagerly sought for longer-term decisions and early warning of potential hazards. Predictions can be produced on the global, regional or local scale.

Global Climate Prediction products

Products from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts

The process of computing long-range forecasts (climate predictions from 30 days up to two years) on the global scale requires huge amounts of computer power along with a very specialized knowledge. For this reason, there are only a few centres around the world that are producing long-range forecasts. These centres are known as WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts (GPCLRFs). The service provided by these centres sets the frame, or context  essential for predicting climate and weather on regional and local scales and is used by regional and local forecasting centres.

[Further information] WMO Global Forecast Products can be found on the websites of the Global Producing Centres listed here.

[Technical information] The WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System also provides data forecasting products and information to NMHSs and RCCs  around the world.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Updates

The WMO produces an El Niño/La Niña update on a quasi-regular basis (approximately once in three months) through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The ability to predict the status of the El Niño/La Niña  phenomenon is particularly important given it’s impact on global climate conditions.

[More in depth information] The most recent WMO El Niño/La Niña Update can be found here.

[Further information] There is also an archive of past updates.

[Further information] on the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon can be found in the climate prediction and outlook pages of this website.

Regional Climate Prediction Products

Predictions from WMO Regional Climate Centres

Regional predictions are generally conducted by WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs). These are Centres of Excellence that assist WMO Members in a given region to deliver better climate services and products including regional long-range forecasts, and to strengthen their capacity to meet national climate information needs.

[More in depth information] The WMO Regional Climate Centres for Asia have a website where more informationabout their work and products can be found.

[More in depth information] The WMO Regional Climate Centre Network for Europe is just being established. Youcan find more information about that network here.

[More in depth information] More information about the WMO Regional Climate Centres can be found here on the Climate Applications and Services Website.

Products from Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF)

In the mid 1990’s the WMO, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), regional institutions, and other international organizations initiated an innovative process known as the Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF).

The forums bring together the experts from regions which are climatologically similar and provide consensus-based climate predictions and information. The information is usually based on the  season which has the highest socio-economic significance. This information has been applied to reducing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable development. Such forums now exist in many regions across the world.

[Further information] Products produced by the Regional Climate Outlook Forums can be found on the RCOFs website.

[Further information] More information on RCOFs can be found in the Climate Prediction section of this website.

National Climate Prediction Products

National climate predictions are usually the responsibility of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS).  Many NMHSs will have predictions on a seasonal scale as well as projections for climate change impacts.

[Further information] WMO keeps a list of all the websites of member country NMHSs. The list can be found on the members page of the WMO website.