WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
Weather  Climate  Water


ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM PRODUCTS

Short-range                           Medium-range                         Long-range

Short-range     (back to top)    

   canada_msc.gif (989 bytes) Canada Short-range Canadian (CMC) ensembles include ensemble forecasts, 10-day mean temperature anomaly, spaghetti plots, calibrated probability of equivalent precipitation, accumulated quantity of precipitation, sea level pressure centres, GZ 500 maps and ensemble spread of trial fields. These are all located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html  

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USA The NCEP Short-range ensemble forecasts (SREF) suite contains: (1) ensemble mean and spread charts, (2) spaghetti charts, (3) probability charts, (4) meteograms (to be done), and (5) clustering (to be done). Visit the site at: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html
   USA The NCEP SREF ensembles can also be viewed via a nice GUI at Penn State University at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html
fnoc.gif (18713 bytes) USA FNMOC ensemble displays are currently available for gale probability, precipitation probability, 500 hPa single contour probabilities and upper level winds. These are at http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/efs.html.
fnoc.gif (18713 bytes) USA In addition FNMOC EPS long-range support page with displays of 500 hPa standard deviation, 500 hPa spaghetti diagrams, 2 metre temperature and 1000/500 hPa thickness. See these at http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/nlmoc_support.html

Medium-range     (back to top)

  canada_msc.gif (989 bytes) Canada Canadian (CMC) ensembles extend from day=0 to day=10, and thus extend into the range of medium range products. Currently available are 10-day mean temperature anomaly, spaghetti plots, calibrated probability of equivalent precipitation, accumulated quantity of precipitation, sea level pressure centres, GZ 500 maps and ensemble spread of trial fields. These are located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html  

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ECMWF The ECMWF EPS provides forecasters with a set of 51 possible future scenarios, which can be combined into an average forecast (the ensemble-mean) or into a small number of alternative forecasts. See http://wms.ecmwf.int/index_eps.html. Note: the charts are password protected for ECMWF Members only.
jma-logo.jpg (1631 bytes) Japan Japan Meteorological Agency runs a medium-range EPS out to 216 hours based on an ensemble size of 51 members. For more information see http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/nwp/nwp-top.htm
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South Africa

South Africa produce a 14-day ensemble forecast of sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights and spaghetti diagram of the 5800 gpm contour: http://www.weathersa.co.za/nwp/derf.html
ncep_80.gif (4617 bytes) USA The NCEP Medium Range Ensemble Forecast (MREF) products include probabilistic precipitation, relative measure of predictability, ensemble mean and ensemble spread plots. There is also a good reference and documentation section. The site is located at http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/enshome.html
USA NCEP MREP ensembles can also be viewed at the Penn State University site located at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu
fnoc.gif (18713 bytes) USA The FNMOC EPS long-range support page with displays of 500 hPa standard deviation, 500 hPa spaghetti diagrams, 2 metre temperature and 100/500 hPa thickness. See these at http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/EFS/nlmoc_support.html

Long-range     (back to top)

brazil_primeira.jpg (34909 bytes) Brazil A restricted access page of seasonal products is available at http://www.cptec.inpe.br/products/clima/prodclii.html

 

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Canada Monthly temperature and seasonal forecasts of precipitation, temperature, SST anomalies, snow and ice, together with extensive verification and skill outputs, are available at http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.htm

Seasonal verification results in accordance with the current edition of the Standardized Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts (Sept 2002) can be found at:
http://www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/~cmcdev/saisons/lrfsvs/lrfsvs_results.html. Results are provided by level one and level two of the SVS-LRF, including a few other parameters. Access to the site is restricted, please contact Richard Verret (richard.verret@ec.gc.ca) to apply for access or to submit your comments.

ecmwftrans.gif (1682 bytes) ECMWF A very interesting European initiative, with the objective of the project is to develop a well-validated European coupled multi-model ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to interannual prediction.  Also contains a very good list of EPS links. http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter
jma-logo.jpg (1631 bytes) Japan Japan Meteorological Agency runs an extended-range EPS out to 34 days based on an ensemble size of 50 members.  For more information see 
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/outline/index.html    
kma_bg02.gif (7523 bytes) Korea Numerous medium-range products, such as ensemble mean, standard deviation and spaghetti plots have been developed for internal use of KMA forecasters. Basic products from the EPS runs are to be available on the KMA website shortly: http://www.kma.go.kr/ema/eindex.htm
uklogo.gif (1683 bytes) UK The Met Office produces long-range forecasts for all regions of the globe. The current products produced can be seen at http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal/index.html
us_nws.gif (1602 bytes) USA The NWS Climate Prediction Center is responsible for issuing seasonal climate outlook maps for one to thirteen months into the future. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
USA/IRI The international Research Institute for Climate Prediction was established as a collaboration between NOAA and Columbia University. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast