East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum predicts near-normal or stronger-than-normal monsoon

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) actively supports the activities of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF), which brings together experts to produce seasonal, regional climate predictions and information. By bringing together countries with common climatological characteristics, these RCOFs ensure consistency in the access to and interpretation of climate information. The East Asia Winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF) is one such RCOF, which was jointly established by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and Mongolia's National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) in 2012.

The Eighth Session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF-8) was held on 5 November 2020, as a virtual meeting with remote participation by experts from Members. This forum was hosted by JMA and involved long-range forecasters and climate experts from the abovementioned agencies, with a special contribution from experts at the North Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC). Participants in the Forum actively engaged in the discussion and shared their knowledge and expertise to work out a consensus seasonal outlook for winter 2020/2021.

Taking into account the ensemble predictions produced by global coupled models and the effect of the La Niña and sea ice condition, experts reached a consensus summary that the coming East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is likely to be near normal or stronger than normal overall, give or take a fluctuation on a sub-seasonal time scale.

Forum materials are available on the EASCOF portal.